{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7204209861","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","title":"Predicting acute and chronic diabetes complications among adults newly diagnosed with diabetes: development and validation of dynamic risk prediction models","display_name":"Predicting acute and chronic diabetes complications among adults newly diagnosed with diabetes: development and validation of dynamic risk prediction models","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-25","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7204209861","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42778552"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","pdf_url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-76673-3_reference.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S64187185","display_name":"Nature Communications","issn_l":"2041-1723","issn":["2041-1723"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319908","host_organization_name":"Nature Portfolio","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319908","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Nature Portfolio","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Nature Communications","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-76673-3_reference.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001881870","display_name":"Rozalina Grubina McCoy","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2289-3183","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2289-3183"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I126744593","display_name":"University of Maryland, Baltimore","ror":"https://ror.org/04rq5mt64","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I126744593"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210124242","display_name":"Optum (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/0370sjj75","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210124242"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Rozalina G. McCoy","raw_affiliation_strings":["Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, & Nutrition, Department of Medicine, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. Rozalina.McCoy@som.umaryland.edu","Optum Labs, Eden Prairie, MN, USA. Rozalina.McCoy@som.umaryland.edu","University of Maryland Institute for Health Computing, North Bethesda, MD, USA. Rozalina.McCoy@som.umaryland.edu"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2289-3183","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, & Nutrition, Department of Medicine, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. Rozalina.McCoy@som.umaryland.edu","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126744593"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Optum Labs, Eden Prairie, MN, USA. Rozalina.McCoy@som.umaryland.edu","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210124242"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Maryland Institute for Health Computing, North Bethesda, MD, USA. Rozalina.McCoy@som.umaryland.edu","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111188248","display_name":"Shrinath Patel","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1330342723","display_name":"Mayo Clinic","ror":"https://ror.org/02qp3tb03","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shrinath Patel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5076011510","display_name":"Louis J. Faust","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9741-7894","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9741-7894"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1330342723","display_name":"Mayo Clinic","ror":"https://ror.org/02qp3tb03","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Louis Faust","raw_affiliation_strings":["Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059547603","display_name":"Herbert C. Heien","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1330342723","display_name":"Mayo Clinic","ror":"https://ror.org/02qp3tb03","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210124242","display_name":"Optum (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/0370sjj75","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210124242"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Herbert C. Heien","raw_affiliation_strings":["Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA","Optum Labs, Eden Prairie, MN, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Optum Labs, Eden Prairie, MN, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210124242"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5148158343","display_name":"Nan Zhang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1330342723","display_name":"Mayo Clinic","ror":"https://ror.org/02qp3tb03","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nan Zhang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5148084782","display_name":"Brian Caffo","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I145311948","display_name":"Johns Hopkins University","ror":"https://ror.org/00za53h95","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I145311948"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Brian Caffo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I145311948"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135242089","display_name":"Che Ngufor","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5935-5744","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5935-5744"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1330342723","display_name":"Mayo Clinic","ror":"https://ror.org/02qp3tb03","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Che Ngufor","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Artificial Intelligence and Informatics, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA","Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Artificial Intelligence and Informatics, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, MN, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1330342723"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5001881870"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126744593","https://openalex.org/I4210124242"],"apc_list":{"value":6990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":6990},"apc_paid":{"value":6990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":6990},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.67193679,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"17","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13702","display_name":"Machine Learning in Healthcare","score":0.7914999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13702","display_name":"Machine Learning in Healthcare","score":0.7914999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10560","display_name":"Diabetes Management and Research","score":0.09780000150203705,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2712","display_name":"Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11396","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare","score":0.09589999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3605","display_name":"Health Information Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/diabetes-complications","display_name":"diabetes complications","score":0.9330000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/type-1-diabetes","display_name":"type 1 diabetes","score":0.8119999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/type-2-diabetes","display_name":"type 2 diabetes","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/newly-diagnosed-diabetes","display_name":"newly diagnosed diabetes","score":0.8130000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-prediction-model","display_name":"risk prediction model","score":0.75},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dynamic-risk-prediction","display_name":"dynamic risk prediction","score":0.7409999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/acute-complications","display_name":"acute complications","score":0.7329999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/chronic-complications","display_name":"chronic complications","score":0.9399999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cardiovascular-disease","display_name":"cardiovascular disease","score":0.7200000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cerebrovascular-disease","display_name":"cerebrovascular disease","score":0.9150000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/peripheral-vascular-disease","display_name":"peripheral vascular disease","score":0.949999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/diabetic-nephropathy","display_name":"diabetic nephropathy","score":0.9879999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/diabetic-neuropathy","display_name":"diabetic neuropathy","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/diabetic-retinopathy","display_name":"diabetic retinopathy","score":0.996999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hypoglycemic-crisis","display_name":"hypoglycemic crisis","score":0.9539999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hyperglycemic-crisis","display_name":"hyperglycemic crisis","score":0.996999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/administrative-claims-data","display_name":"administrative claims data","score":0.9350000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electronic-health-records","display_name":"electronic health records","score":0.8059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-stratification","display_name":"risk stratification","score":0.7710000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shared-decision-making","display_name":"shared decision-making","score":0.828000009059906}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.7329000234603882},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45804977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239673","display_name":"Predictive modelling","level":2,"score":0.5899999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C555293320","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12206","display_name":"Diabetes mellitus","level":2,"score":0.5539000034332275},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177713679","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q679690","display_name":"Intensive care medicine","level":1,"score":0.4262999892234802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12174686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058438","display_name":"Risk assessment","level":2,"score":0.3856000006198883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779473830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1540899","display_name":"MEDLINE","level":2,"score":0.36169999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987552334","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q383126","display_name":"Chronic disease","level":2,"score":0.3547999858856201},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198433322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3910099","display_name":"Predictive value of tests","level":2,"score":0.3246000111103058},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.29580000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194828623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2861470","display_name":"Emergency medicine","level":1,"score":0.29429998993873596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205545832","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17156455","display_name":"Young adult","level":2,"score":0.2621999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187212893","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q123028","display_name":"Pediatrics","level":1,"score":0.25769999623298645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C30036603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17125150","display_name":"Severity of illness","level":2,"score":0.25450000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019813237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q65089264","display_name":"Model validation","level":2,"score":0.2524999976158142}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000098404","descriptor_name":"Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098404","descriptor_name":"Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098404","descriptor_name":"Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098412","descriptor_name":"Predictive Learning Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098412","descriptor_name":"Predictive Learning Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098412","descriptor_name":"Predictive Learning Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098437","descriptor_name":"Prediction Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098437","descriptor_name":"Prediction Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098437","descriptor_name":"Prediction Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000328","descriptor_name":"Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000328","descriptor_name":"Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000328","descriptor_name":"Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002908","descriptor_name":"Chronic Disease","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002908","descriptor_name":"Chronic Disease","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002908","descriptor_name":"Chronic Disease","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003922","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1","qualifier_ui":"Q000150","qualifier_name":"complications","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003922","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1","qualifier_ui":"Q000150","qualifier_name":"complications","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003922","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1","qualifier_ui":"Q000150","qualifier_name":"complications","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003924","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2","qualifier_ui":"Q000150","qualifier_name":"complications","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003924","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2","qualifier_ui":"Q000150","qualifier_name":"complications","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003924","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2","qualifier_ui":"Q000150","qualifier_name":"complications","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003924","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003924","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003924","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008875","descriptor_name":"Middle Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008875","descriptor_name":"Middle Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008875","descriptor_name":"Middle Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012307","descriptor_name":"Risk Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012307","descriptor_name":"Risk Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012307","descriptor_name":"Risk Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012372","descriptor_name":"ROC Curve","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012372","descriptor_name":"ROC Curve","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012372","descriptor_name":"ROC Curve","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016015","descriptor_name":"Logistic Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016015","descriptor_name":"Logistic Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016015","descriptor_name":"Logistic Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000209","qualifier_name":"etiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000209","qualifier_name":"etiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000209","qualifier_name":"etiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D048909","descriptor_name":"Diabetes Complications","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","pdf_url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-76673-3_reference.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S64187185","display_name":"Nature Communications","issn_l":"2041-1723","issn":["2041-1723"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319908","host_organization_name":"Nature Portfolio","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319908","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Nature Portfolio","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Nature Communications","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:42778552","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42778552","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Nature communications","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:13601617","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13601617/","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13601617/pdf/41467_2026_Article_76673.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Nat Commun","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:4ae547dfe36040a8a9d2748a097e3bac","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/4ae547dfe36040a8a9d2748a097e3bac","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Nature Communications, Vol 17, Iss 1 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76673-3","pdf_url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-76673-3_reference.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S64187185","display_name":"Nature Communications","issn_l":"2041-1723","issn":["2041-1723"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319908","host_organization_name":"Nature Portfolio","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319908","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Nature Portfolio","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Nature Communications","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":1.0,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.5900216698646545,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G315250905","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"K23DK114497","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337357","funder_display_name":"National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4963158041","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"P30 AG097158","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8194887043","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"K23DK114497","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G9000274263","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"K23DK114497","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","funder_display_name":"National Institutes of Health"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G9000892717","display_name":"Center for Seniors Uniting Nationwide to Support Health, INtegrated care, and Economics (SUNSHINE)","funder_award_id":"1p30ag097158-01","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","funder_display_name":"National Institutes of Health"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","display_name":"National Institutes of Health","ror":"https://ror.org/01cwqze88"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","display_name":"National Institute on Aging","ror":"https://ror.org/049v75w11"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337357","display_name":"National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases","ror":"https://ror.org/00adh9b73"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7204209861.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7204209861.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Diabetes":[0,159,202],"affects":[1],"one":[2],"in":[3,24,37,134],"ten":[4],"adults":[5,68],"worldwide,":[6],"yet":[7],"clinicians":[8],"lack":[9],"tools":[10],"to":[11,22,206,211],"simultaneously":[12],"predict":[13,80],"which":[14],"complications":[15,89,153,172],"a":[16,179],"given":[17],"patient":[18],"is":[19],"most":[20],"likely":[21],"develop":[23],"the":[25,81,146,155,201],"near":[26],"term.":[27],"Existing":[28],"risk":[29,83,167,184],"models":[30,58],"typically":[31],"address":[32],"single":[33],"complications,":[34],"were":[35],"developed":[36],"specialized":[38],"cohorts,":[39],"and":[40,87,100,102,121,191],"use":[41],"heterogeneous":[42],"time":[43],"horizons,":[44],"limiting":[45],"their":[46],"utility":[47],"for":[48,66,154,169,182],"individualized":[49],"clinical":[50,112,176],"decision-making.":[51],"Here,":[52],"we":[53,130],"show":[54],"that":[55,107,186],"machine":[56],"learning":[57],"trained":[59],"on":[60],"nationwide":[61],"U.S.":[62],"administrative":[63],"claims":[64],"data":[65,113],"400,400":[67],"with":[69,105,126],"newly":[70],"diagnosed":[71],"type":[72,75],"1":[73],"or":[74],"2":[76],"diabetes":[77,171],"can":[78],"accurately":[79],"monthly":[82],"of":[84,200],"nine":[85],"acute":[86],"chronic":[88],"(cardiovascular":[90],"disease,":[91,93,96],"cerebrovascular":[92],"peripheral":[94],"vascular":[95],"nephropathy,":[97],"neuropathy,":[98],"retinopathy,":[99],"hypoglycemic":[101],"hyperglycemic":[103],"crises)":[104],"predictions":[106],"update":[108],"dynamically":[109],"as":[110],"new":[111],"become":[114],"available.":[115],"Using":[116],"Regularized":[117],"Logistic":[118],"Regression":[119],"(GLMnet)":[120],"Extreme":[122],"Gradient":[123],"Boosting":[124],"(XGBoost)":[125],"walk-forward":[127],"temporal":[128],"validation,":[129],"demonstrate":[131],"strong":[132],"discrimination":[133],"external":[135],"validation":[136],"against":[137],"an":[138],"independent":[139],"electronic":[140],"health":[141,193],"record":[142],"cohort":[143],"(areas":[144],"under":[145],"receiver":[147],"operating":[148],"characteristic":[149],"curve":[150],"0.77-0.85":[151],"across":[152,195],"best-performing":[156],"model).":[157],"The":[158,198],"Complications":[160,203],"Risk":[161,204],"Calculator":[162,205],"therefore":[163],"provides":[164],"encounter-specific":[165],"near-term":[166],"estimates":[168],"multiple":[170],"using":[173],"routinely":[174],"available":[175],"data,":[177],"offering":[178],"potential":[180],"framework":[181],"personalized":[183],"stratification":[185],"could":[187],"support":[188],"shared":[189],"decision-making":[190],"population":[192],"management":[194],"healthcare":[196],"settings.":[197],"generalizability":[199],"other":[207],"cohorts":[208],"will":[209],"need":[210],"be":[212],"tested.":[213]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2026-08-26T00:00:00"}