{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7203768004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","title":"Coupled Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability modulates cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa, enabling long-lead seasonal forecasts","display_name":"Coupled Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability modulates cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa, enabling long-lead seasonal forecasts","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7203768004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42616880","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/13488882"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2737427234","display_name":"Science Advances","issn_l":"2375-2548","issn":["2375-2548"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","oarl","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315823","host_organization_name":"American Association for the Advancement of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315823"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Association for the Advancement of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Science Advances","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062862980","display_name":"Adri\u00e0 San-Jos\u00e9","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5988-4352","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5988-4352"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210148332","display_name":"Barcelona Institute for Global Health","ror":"https://ror.org/03hjgt059","country_code":"ES","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210148332","https://openalex.org/I4387153040"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Adri\u00e0 San-Jos\u00e9","raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate and Health RG, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5988-4352","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Climate and Health RG, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210148332"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047316158","display_name":"Karim Aoun","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6081-4266","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6081-4266"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210142087","display_name":"Institut Pasteur de Tunis","ror":"https://ror.org/04pwyer06","country_code":"TN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210142087"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63596082","display_name":"Tunis El Manar University","ror":"https://ror.org/029cgt552","country_code":"TN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63596082"]}],"countries":["TN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Karim Aoun","raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratory of Medical Parasitology, Biotechnology and Biomolecules, LR 20-IPT-06, Institut Pasteur de Tunis, University Tunis el Manar, Tunis, Tunisia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6081-4266","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratory of Medical Parasitology, Biotechnology and Biomolecules, LR 20-IPT-06, Institut Pasteur de Tunis, University Tunis el Manar, Tunis, Tunisia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210142087","https://openalex.org/I63596082"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077167525","display_name":"Meryem Lemrani","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9923-9219","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9923-9219"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210151823","display_name":"Institut Pasteur du Maroc","ror":"https://ror.org/04yb4j419","country_code":"MA","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210151823"]}],"countries":["MA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Meryem Lemrani","raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratory of Parasitology and Vector-Borne-Diseases, Institut Pasteur du Maroc, Casablanca, Morocco"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratory of Parasitology and Vector-Borne-Diseases, Institut Pasteur du Maroc, Casablanca, Morocco","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210151823"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071808988","display_name":"Leonardo L\u00f3pez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5351-9899","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5351-9899"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210148332","display_name":"Barcelona Institute for Global Health","ror":"https://ror.org/03hjgt059","country_code":"ES","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210148332","https://openalex.org/I4387153040"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Leonardo L\u00f3pez","raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate and Health RG, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5351-9899","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Climate and Health RG, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210148332"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091226685","display_name":"Idris Mhaidi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3659-6511","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3659-6511"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210151823","display_name":"Institut Pasteur du Maroc","ror":"https://ror.org/04yb4j419","country_code":"MA","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210151823"]}],"countries":["MA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Idris Mhaidi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratory of Parasitology and Vector-Borne-Diseases, Institut Pasteur du Maroc, Casablanca, Morocco"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3659-6511","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratory of Parasitology and Vector-Borne-Diseases, Institut Pasteur du Maroc, Casablanca, Morocco","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210151823"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022663486","display_name":"Ai\u0308da Bouratbine","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7049-7030","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7049-7030"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210142087","display_name":"Institut Pasteur de Tunis","ror":"https://ror.org/04pwyer06","country_code":"TN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210142087"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63596082","display_name":"Tunis El Manar University","ror":"https://ror.org/029cgt552","country_code":"TN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63596082"]}],"countries":["TN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Aida Bouratbine","raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratory of Medical Parasitology, Biotechnology and Biomolecules, LR 20-IPT-06, Institut Pasteur de Tunis, University Tunis el Manar, Tunis, Tunisia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7049-7030","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratory of Medical Parasitology, Biotechnology and Biomolecules, LR 20-IPT-06, Institut Pasteur de Tunis, University Tunis el Manar, Tunis, Tunisia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210142087","https://openalex.org/I63596082"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081429602","display_name":"Richard Edward L. Paul","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0665-5089","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0665-5089"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1294671590","display_name":"Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique","ror":"https://ror.org/02feahw73","country_code":"FR","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I157536573","display_name":"Institut Pasteur","ror":"https://ror.org/0495fxg12","country_code":"FR","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157536573"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204730241","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9","ror":"https://ror.org/05f82e368","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204730241"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210088668","display_name":"Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement","ror":"https://ror.org/003vg9w96","country_code":"FR","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210088668"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387152310","display_name":"G\u00e9nomique \u00e9volutive, mod\u00e9lisation et sant\u00e9","ror":"https://ror.org/026ddbz68","country_code":"FR","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I157536573","https://openalex.org/I4387152310"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Richard Paul","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris-Cit\u00e9, Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) UMR 2000, Institut National de Recherche pour l\u2019Agriculture, l\u2019Alimentation et l\u2019Environnement (INRAE) USC 1510, Paris, France"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0665-5089","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris-Cit\u00e9, Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) UMR 2000, Institut National de Recherche pour l\u2019Agriculture, l\u2019Alimentation et l\u2019Environnement (INRAE) USC 1510, Paris, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I157536573","https://openalex.org/I204730241","https://openalex.org/I4210088668","https://openalex.org/I4387152310"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069880918","display_name":"Xavier Rod\u00f3","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4843-6180","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4843-6180"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I11932220","display_name":"Instituci\u00f3 Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avan\u00e7ats","ror":"https://ror.org/0371hy230","country_code":"ES","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I11932220"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210148332","display_name":"Barcelona Institute for Global Health","ror":"https://ror.org/03hjgt059","country_code":"ES","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210148332","https://openalex.org/I4387153040"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Xavier Rod\u00f3","raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate and Health RG, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain","ICREA (Catalan Institute for Research and Advanced Studies), Barcelona, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4843-6180","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Climate and Health RG, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210148332"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"ICREA (Catalan Institute for Research and Advanced Studies), Barcelona, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11932220"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":4,"institutions_distinct_count":10,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5062862980","https://openalex.org/A5069880918"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11932220","https://openalex.org/I4210148332"],"apc_list":{"value":4500,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4500},"apc_paid":{"value":4500,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4500},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.56742046,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"12","issue":"34","first_page":"eaeb0774","last_page":"eaeb0774"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10823","display_name":"Research on Leishmaniasis Studies","score":0.8881999850273132,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10823","display_name":"Research on Leishmaniasis Studies","score":0.8881999850273132,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.05350000038743019,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11244","display_name":"Climate Change and Health Impacts","score":0.019600000232458115,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2307","display_name":"Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cutaneous-leishmaniasis","display_name":"cutaneous leishmaniasis","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/north-atlantic-oscillation","display_name":"North Atlantic Oscillation","score":0.9810000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation","display_name":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-variability","display_name":"climate variability","score":0.5370000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-warning-systems","display_name":"early warning systems","score":0.8920000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rainfall-variability","display_name":"rainfall variability","score":0.42399999499320984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lagged-climate-effects","display_name":"lagged climate effects","score":0.7310000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/north-africa","display_name":"North Africa","score":0.6499999761581421}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4646841","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13996","display_name":"Mediterranean climate","level":2,"score":0.6337000131607056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17093552","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1137345","display_name":"North Atlantic oscillation","level":2,"score":0.5952000021934509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.5584999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779296788","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5326904","display_name":"Early warning system","level":3,"score":0.5085999965667725},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778702967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2590966","display_name":"Cutaneous leishmaniasis","level":3,"score":0.49470001459121704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11308688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756835","display_name":"Atlantic multidecadal oscillation","level":3,"score":0.47049999237060547},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81461190","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q167466","display_name":"Temperate climate","level":2,"score":0.4345000088214874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.4122999906539917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.40220001339912415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14168384","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16305538","display_name":"Subtropics","level":2,"score":0.39989998936653137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776246342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929451","display_name":"Neglected tropical diseases","level":3,"score":0.3993000090122223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.39640000462532043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C125403950","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2111082","display_name":"Seasonality","level":2,"score":0.37630000710487366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.37369999289512634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.36390000581741333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.36079999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.357699990272522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39820584","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q125928","display_name":"Climate pattern","level":3,"score":0.3495999872684479},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779547961","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7845752","display_name":"Tropical Atlantic","level":3,"score":0.3411000072956085},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777489503","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7698936","display_name":"Temporal scales","level":2,"score":0.3384000062942505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.32089999318122864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.30959999561309814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776555147","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q331283","display_name":"Leishmaniasis","level":2,"score":0.3091999888420105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.3050000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2994067962","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3509184","display_name":"Climate system","level":3,"score":0.3050000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94747663","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7574086","display_name":"Spatial variability","level":2,"score":0.27799999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2984074130","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q73539779","display_name":"R package","level":2,"score":0.275299996137619},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781092759","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q524818","display_name":"Leishmania","level":3,"score":0.26440000534057617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C507956050","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q14524818","display_name":"El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation","level":2,"score":0.2637999951839447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24518262","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16197023","display_name":"Threatened species","level":3,"score":0.2500999867916107}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000352","descriptor_name":"Africa, Northern","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000818","descriptor_name":"Animals","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001267","descriptor_name":"Atlantic Ocean","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001272","descriptor_name":"Atmosphere","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D002980","descriptor_name":"Climate","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011891","descriptor_name":"Rain","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012621","descriptor_name":"Seasons","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D013696","descriptor_name":"Temperature","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016773","descriptor_name":"Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016773","descriptor_name":"Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous","qualifier_ui":"Q000469","qualifier_name":"parasitology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016773","descriptor_name":"Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D018320","descriptor_name":"Leishmania major","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2737427234","display_name":"Science Advances","issn_l":"2375-2548","issn":["2375-2548"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","oarl","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315823","host_organization_name":"American Association for the Advancement of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315823"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Association for the Advancement of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Science Advances","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2024/01/17/2023.12.14.23299949.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:13488882","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13488882/","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13488882/pdf/sciadv.aeb0774.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Sci Adv","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:42616880","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42616880","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Science advances","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:pasteur-04559670v1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670","pdf_url":"https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670/document","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4405252976","host_organization_name":"Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405252976"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"2024","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:pasteur-05732339v1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-05732339","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4405252976","host_organization_name":"Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405252976"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Science Advances , 2026, 12 (34), ⟨10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774⟩","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0774","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2737427234","display_name":"Science Advances","issn_l":"2375-2548","issn":["2375-2548"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","oarl","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315823","host_organization_name":"American Association for the Advancement of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315823"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Association for the Advancement of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Science Advances","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.7246000170707703,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"},{"score":0.5351999998092651,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3423777635","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CEX2018-000806-S","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320315803","funder_display_name":"Centres de Recerca de Catalunya"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3480869486","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"13039","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5080475149","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"10.13039","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5132640529","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ID 100010434","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320330256","funder_display_name":"Fundaci\u00f3n Bancaria Caixa d'Estalvis i Pensions de Barcelona"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6328075693","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CEX2018-000806-S","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","funder_display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7084143925","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"AEI/10","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7208110030","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CEX2018-000806-S","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7685134749","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"100010434","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320330256","funder_display_name":"Fundaci\u00f3n Bancaria Caixa d'Estalvis i Pensions de Barcelona"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320315803","display_name":"Centres de Recerca de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/01bkbaq61"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/01bg62x04"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320330256","display_name":"Fundaci\u00f3n Bancaria Caixa d'Estalvis i Pensions de Barcelona","ror":"https://ror.org/05r3yzw86"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n","ror":"https://ror.org/003x0zc53"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7203768004.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7203768004.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":71,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1480551390","https://openalex.org/W1522218031","https://openalex.org/W1541330662","https://openalex.org/W1555022630","https://openalex.org/W1966187999","https://openalex.org/W1969721104","https://openalex.org/W1972244880","https://openalex.org/W1986954778","https://openalex.org/W1990287582","https://openalex.org/W1995349031","https://openalex.org/W2025727209","https://openalex.org/W2030858280","https://openalex.org/W2037208163","https://openalex.org/W2040763894","https://openalex.org/W2044163930","https://openalex.org/W2054962751","https://openalex.org/W2060782304","https://openalex.org/W2063623478","https://openalex.org/W2073019299","https://openalex.org/W2086098898","https://openalex.org/W2090616230","https://openalex.org/W2099843292","https://openalex.org/W2105620701","https://openalex.org/W2106188584","https://openalex.org/W2107742294","https://openalex.org/W2111158806","https://openalex.org/W2118361133","https://openalex.org/W2120017307","https://openalex.org/W2128765957","https://openalex.org/W2133423127","https://openalex.org/W2139043127","https://openalex.org/W2151238122","https://openalex.org/W2153989276","https://openalex.org/W2156205656","https://openalex.org/W2162548336","https://openalex.org/W2163337531","https://openalex.org/W2164897769","https://openalex.org/W2166361350","https://openalex.org/W2166429424","https://openalex.org/W2182485078","https://openalex.org/W2231761304","https://openalex.org/W2242446634","https://openalex.org/W2279116712","https://openalex.org/W2396220137","https://openalex.org/W2521576909","https://openalex.org/W2591396142","https://openalex.org/W2603673075","https://openalex.org/W2607234870","https://openalex.org/W2749877867","https://openalex.org/W2765955851","https://openalex.org/W2801374676","https://openalex.org/W2808220546","https://openalex.org/W2886375368","https://openalex.org/W2942281207","https://openalex.org/W2951141074","https://openalex.org/W2996426627","https://openalex.org/W3000126656","https://openalex.org/W3002024856","https://openalex.org/W3025949386","https://openalex.org/W3042854455","https://openalex.org/W3045947152","https://openalex.org/W3084312703","https://openalex.org/W3133741880","https://openalex.org/W3143685668","https://openalex.org/W4206734850","https://openalex.org/W4211078476","https://openalex.org/W4302331569","https://openalex.org/W4387860025","https://openalex.org/W4407549628","https://openalex.org/W4414594873","https://openalex.org/W7103143910"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4389792804","https://openalex.org/W2030858280","https://openalex.org/W2611811894","https://openalex.org/W2050964217","https://openalex.org/W2411298150","https://openalex.org/W7161063679","https://openalex.org/W2914234473","https://openalex.org/W3194483345","https://openalex.org/W2803311465","https://openalex.org/W2749877867"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"The":[1],"development":[2],"of":[3,19,73,81,85,157],"effective":[4,26],"Early":[5],"Warning":[6],"Systems":[7],"(EWS)":[8],"for":[9,25,76,188],"climate-driven":[10],"zoonotic":[11],"diseases":[12],"has":[13,57],"been":[14,58],"hindered":[15],"by":[16,100],"a":[17,71,102,153,172],"lack":[18,72],"predictors":[20],"with":[21],"adequate":[22],"lead":[23],"time":[24,182,193],"interventions.":[27],"Atmosphere-Ocean":[28],"coupled":[29],"phenomena":[30],"present":[31],"predictability":[32],"beyond":[33],"the":[34,52,82,90,105,111,137,185],"atmospheric":[35,86],"deterministic":[36],"limits":[37],"and":[38,66,107,163,190],"therefore":[39],"are":[40],"potentially":[41],"useful":[42],"climate":[43],"drivers":[44],"to":[45,60],"be":[46,197],"integrated":[47,198],"in":[48,64,126,199],"mathematical":[49],"models.":[50,202],"While":[51],"El":[53],"Ni\u00f1o-Southern":[54],"Oscillation":[55,93,114],"(ENSO)":[56],"used":[59],"forecast":[61],"disease":[62],"dynamics":[63],"equatorial":[65],"tropical":[67],"regions,":[68],"there":[69],"is":[70],"similar":[74],"applications":[75],"temperate":[77],"areas,":[78],"likely":[79],"because":[80],"perceived":[83],"unpredictability":[84],"systems":[87],"such":[88,135],"as":[89,136],"North":[91],"Atlantic":[92,112],"(NAO).":[94],"This":[95],"study":[96],"challenges":[97],"this":[98],"notion":[99],"establishing":[101],"connection":[103],"between":[104],"NAO":[106],"its":[108],"oceanic":[109],"counterpart,":[110],"Multidecadal":[113],"(AMO),":[115],"revealing":[116],"common":[117],"low-frequency":[118],"components":[119],"that":[120,176],"strongly":[121],"modulate":[122],"Cutaneous":[123],"Leishmaniasis":[124],"(CL)":[125],"Northern":[127],"Africa.":[128],"We":[129],"demonstrate":[130],"not":[131],"only":[132],"short-term":[133],"couplings,":[134],"known":[138],"NAO\u2019s":[139],"impact":[140],"on":[141,161,166],"seasonal":[142],"rainfall,":[143],"which":[144,195],"subsequently":[145],"affects":[146],"CL":[147,167,178,200],"incidence,":[148],"but":[149],"we":[150],"also":[151],"uncover":[152],"significant":[154],"lagged":[155],"effect":[156],"approximately":[158],"three":[159],"years":[160,165],"rainfall":[162],"four":[164],"incidence.":[168],"Our":[169],"findings":[170],"reveal":[171],"unified,":[173],"multiscale":[174],"mechanism":[175],"influences":[177],"epidemiology":[179],"across":[180],"different":[181],"scales,":[183],"underscoring":[184],"predictive":[186],"skill":[187],"short":[189],"long":[191],"term":[192],"frames,":[194],"should":[196],"forecasting":[201]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2026-08-20T00:00:00"}