{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7203682306","doi":"https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","title":"A Mixed Fractional\u2011Order Stochastic Malaria Model with Immune Memory and Extinction Thresholds: Implications for Elimination Strategies in Nigeria","display_name":"A Mixed Fractional\u2011Order Stochastic Malaria Model with Immune Memory and Extinction Thresholds: Implications for Elimination Strategies in Nigeria","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7203682306","doi":"https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","doi":"https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","pdf_url":"https://fjs.fudutsinma.edu.ng/index.php/fjs/article/download/5558/3734","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210224159","display_name":"FUDMA Journal of Sciences","issn_l":"2616-1370","issn":["2616-1370","2645-2944"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4404662838","host_organization_name":"Federal University, Dutsin-Ma","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4404662838"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Federal University, Dutsin-Ma"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"FUDMA Journal of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://fjs.fudutsinma.edu.ng/index.php/fjs/article/download/5558/3734","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5147429266","display_name":"Echude Ohiemi","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158569","display_name":"Veritas University","ror":"https://ror.org/04jr4s665","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210158569"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8033065","display_name":"University of Abuja","ror":"https://ror.org/007e69832","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8033065"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ohiemi Echude","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Abuja","Veritas University Abuja"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Abuja","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8033065"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Veritas University Abuja","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158569"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017081344","display_name":"Benjamin Oyediran Oyelami","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8509-0399","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8509-0399"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8033065","display_name":"University of Abuja","ror":"https://ror.org/007e69832","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8033065"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Benjami Oyediran Oyelami","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Mathematical Center, Abuja","University of Abuja"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Mathematical Center, Abuja","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Abuja","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8033065"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028586407","display_name":"Emmanuel Azuaba","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3076-5595","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3076-5595"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Emmanuel Azuaba","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.54326392,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"10","issue":"14","first_page":"38","last_page":"52"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10091","display_name":"Malaria Research and Control","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10541","display_name":"Nonlinear Differential Equations Analysis","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/malaria-transmission-dynamics","display_name":"malaria transmission dynamics","score":0.9549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/immunological-memory","display_name":"immunological memory","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/caputo-fractional-derivative","display_name":"Caputo fractional derivative","score":0.8460000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-stochasticity","display_name":"environmental stochasticity","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multiplicative-noise","display_name":"multiplicative noise","score":0.7300000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease-free-equilibrium","display_name":"disease-free equilibrium","score":0.7049999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mittag-leffler-stability","display_name":"Mittag-Leffler stability","score":0.8920000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/malaria-elimination-strategy","display_name":"malaria elimination strategy","score":0.8050000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nigeria","display_name":"Nigeria","score":0.5659999847412109}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778048844","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12156","display_name":"Malaria","level":2,"score":0.6664000153541565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101991246","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5422078","display_name":"Extinction (optical mineralogy)","level":2,"score":0.6402999758720398},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.49309998750686646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42747912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1048447","display_name":"Multiplicative function","level":2,"score":0.46880000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4586000144481659},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204264503","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q901464","display_name":"Basic reproduction number","level":3,"score":0.45570001006126404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112972136","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7595718","display_name":"Stability (learning theory)","level":2,"score":0.40630000829696655},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21200559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7451068","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","level":2,"score":0.36340001225471497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127491075","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7617825","display_name":"Stochastic modelling","level":2,"score":0.3472000062465668},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.32089999318122864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.3206999897956848},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781009140","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7170389","display_name":"Persistence (discontinuity)","level":2,"score":0.3095000088214874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2847999930381775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.275299996137619},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C59659247","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11990","display_name":"Reproduction","level":2,"score":0.26089999079704285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2909656726","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1347969","display_name":"Disease Eradication","level":3,"score":0.26010000705718994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C92087593","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q427389","display_name":"Vector (molecular biology)","level":4,"score":0.2590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2578999996185303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.257099986076355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.25110000371932983}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","doi":"https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","pdf_url":"https://fjs.fudutsinma.edu.ng/index.php/fjs/article/download/5558/3734","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210224159","display_name":"FUDMA Journal of Sciences","issn_l":"2616-1370","issn":["2616-1370","2645-2944"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4404662838","host_organization_name":"Federal University, Dutsin-Ma","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4404662838"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Federal University, Dutsin-Ma"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"FUDMA Journal of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:fjs.fudutsinma.edu.ng:article/5558","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://fjs.fudutsinma.edu.ng/index.php/index/article/view/5558","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210224159","display_name":"FUDMA Journal of Sciences","issn_l":"2616-1370","issn":["2616-1370","2645-2944"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4404662838","host_organization_name":"Federal University, Dutsin-Ma","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4404662838"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Federal University, Dutsin-Ma"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2645-2944","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","doi":"https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5558","pdf_url":"https://fjs.fudutsinma.edu.ng/index.php/fjs/article/download/5558/3734","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210224159","display_name":"FUDMA Journal of Sciences","issn_l":"2616-1370","issn":["2616-1370","2645-2944"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4404662838","host_organization_name":"Federal University, Dutsin-Ma","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4404662838"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Federal University, Dutsin-Ma"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"FUDMA Journal of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.9074000120162964}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7203682306.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7203682306.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":7,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W207440351","https://openalex.org/W1978349032","https://openalex.org/W2092861539","https://openalex.org/W2112680994","https://openalex.org/W3154982291","https://openalex.org/W4247953052","https://openalex.org/W4398141579"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7203716618","https://openalex.org/W7002099982","https://openalex.org/W4417161488","https://openalex.org/W7162655507","https://openalex.org/W7171251175","https://openalex.org/W7155540309","https://openalex.org/W4200486240","https://openalex.org/W2312001790","https://openalex.org/W4289531561","https://openalex.org/W3193626866"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Despite":[0],"vector":[1],"control":[2],"efforts,":[3],"Nigeria":[4],"remains":[5],"highly":[6],"endemic":[7],"for":[8,179],"malaria.":[9],"Classical":[10],"epidemiological":[11],"models":[12],"ignore":[13],"both":[14],"environmental":[15,49,130,151],"variability":[16,152,188],"and":[17,20,48,64,110,138,145,153,185],"immunological":[18],"memory,":[19],"these":[21],"two":[22],"factors":[23],"critical":[24],"to":[25,96,117],"malaria":[26,37,98],"transmission":[27,154],"dynamics.":[28],"This":[29],"study":[30],"introduces":[31],"a":[32,77],"novel":[33],"mixed":[34],"fractional-order":[35],"stochastic":[36,78,84],"model":[38,103,123],"incorporating":[39],"human":[40],"immune":[41],"memory":[42],"(Caputo":[43],"derivatives,":[44],"\u03b1":[45],"=":[46,128,142],"0.9)":[47],"stochasticity":[50],"in":[51],"mosquito":[52],"dynamics":[53],"(integer-order":[54],"SDEs":[55],"with":[56],"multiplicative":[57],"noise).":[58],"We":[59,175],"prove":[60],"well-posedness,":[61],"positivity,":[62],"boundedness,":[63],"global":[65],"Mittag\u2013Leffler":[66],"stability":[67],"of":[68,135,160,191],"the":[69,83,101,121,157],"disease-free":[70],"equilibrium":[71],"when":[72],"R\u2080":[73,127,171],"<":[74,90],"1.":[75],"Using":[76],"next-generation":[79],"operator,":[80],"we":[81],"derive":[82],"reproduction":[85],"threshold":[86],"showing":[87],"that":[88,166],"R\u209b":[89],"1":[91],"ensures":[92],"almost-sure":[93],"extinction.":[94],"Calibrated":[95],"Nigerian":[97],"surveillance":[99],"data,":[100],"fractional":[102],"delays":[104],"epidemic":[105],"peaks":[106],"by":[107,114],"12\u201318":[108],"days":[109],"reduces":[111],"peak":[112],"prevalence":[113,187],"15\u201320%":[115],"relative":[116],"integer-order":[118],"models.":[119],"Although":[120],"deterministic":[122,170],"predicts":[124],"persistence":[125],"at":[126,140],"35,":[129],"fluctuations":[131],"induce":[132],"extinction":[133],"probabilities":[134],"0%,":[136],"18%,":[137],"73.2%":[139],"\u03c3":[141],"0.05,":[143],"0.15,":[144],"0.30,":[146],"respectively.":[147],"Sensitivity":[148],"analysis":[149],"identifies":[150],"rates":[155],"as":[156,189],"dominant":[158],"determinants":[159],"elimination":[161,173,192],"feasibility.":[162],"Our":[163],"findings":[164],"demonstrate":[165],"reliance":[167],"solely":[168],"on":[169],"underestimates":[172],"opportunities.":[174],"propose":[176],"policy":[177],"recommendations":[178],"Nigeria,":[180],"including":[181],"seasonal":[182],"intervention":[183],"windows":[184],"monitoring":[186],"indicators":[190],"potential.":[193]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2026-08-19T00:00:00"}