{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7203602080","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","title":"Can a Hierarchical Approach Using Interval Information Improve Gasoline Volatility Forecast?","display_name":"Can a Hierarchical Approach Using Interval Information Improve Gasoline Volatility Forecast?","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7203602080","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2024-0047"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","pdf_url":"https://syssci.cjoe.ac.cn/EN/PDF/10.21078/JSSI-2024-0047","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210170797","display_name":"\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u62a5(\u82f1\u6587)","issn_l":"1478-9906","issn":["1478-9906","2512-6660"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-4","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u62a5(\u82f1\u6587)","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://syssci.cjoe.ac.cn/EN/PDF/10.21078/JSSI-2024-0047","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101282091","display_name":"Yao Yue","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2331-9025","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2331-9025"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I187380120","display_name":"Agricultural Bank of China","ror":"https://ror.org/015g9sa94","country_code":"CN","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I187380120"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78988378","display_name":"Renmin University of China","ror":"https://ror.org/041pakw92","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78988378"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yao YUE","raw_affiliation_strings":["Post-Doctoral Research Center , Agricultural Bank of China , Beijing 100005 , China;","School of Finance , Renmin University of China , Beijing 100190 , China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Post-Doctoral Research Center , Agricultural Bank of China , Beijing 100005 , China;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I187380120"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Finance , Renmin University of China , Beijing 100190 , China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78988378"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5144020421","display_name":"Qi Zhang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I179026463","display_name":"Beijing Technology and Business University","ror":"https://ror.org/013e0zm98","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I179026463"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210165038","display_name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/05qbk4x57","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210165038"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Qi ZHANG","raw_affiliation_strings":["Business School , Beijing Technology and Business University , Beijing 100048 , China;","School of Economics and Management , and MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation , University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Business School , Beijing Technology and Business University , Beijing 100048 , China;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I179026463"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics and Management , and MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation , University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210165038"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050690906","display_name":"Yuying Sun","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9525-7954","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9525-7954","https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5738-6981"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I19820366","display_name":"Chinese Academy of Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/034t30j35","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120485","display_name":"Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science","ror":"https://ror.org/02jkmyk67","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210120485"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210165038","display_name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/05qbk4x57","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210165038"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yuying SUN","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics and Management , and MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation , University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China","State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Sciences , Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science , Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China;"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics and Management , and MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation , University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210165038"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Sciences , Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science , Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210120485"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078558986","display_name":"Shouyang Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5773-998X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5773-998X","https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6692-7747"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I19820366","display_name":"Chinese Academy of Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/034t30j35","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120485","display_name":"Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science","ror":"https://ror.org/02jkmyk67","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210120485"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210165038","display_name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/05qbk4x57","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210165038"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shouyang WANG","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics and Management , and MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation , University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China","State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Sciences , Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science , Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China;"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics and Management , and MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation , University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210165038"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Sciences , Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science , Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190 , China;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210120485"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":"3","first_page":"325","last_page":"344"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10282","display_name":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","score":0.8744999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10282","display_name":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","score":0.8744999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.06539999693632126,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.025800000876188278,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interval-valued-data","display_name":"interval data","score":0.9430000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hierarchical-decomposition","display_name":"hierarchical decomposition","score":0.953000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-forecasting","display_name":"ensemble forecasting","score":0.7490000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/frequency-components","display_name":"frequency components","score":0.5680000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/garch-model-comparison","display_name":"GARCH model comparison","score":0.5519999861717224}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103697071","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39558","display_name":"Gasoline","level":2,"score":0.751800000667572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91602232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756115","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","level":2,"score":0.7484999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6067000031471252},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4982999861240387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778067643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166507","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.4142000079154968},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3070000112056732},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2984642479","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7404320","display_name":"Sales forecasting","level":2,"score":0.30070000886917114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.29980000853538513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2983220686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q951437","display_name":"Interval data","level":3,"score":0.2996000051498413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C67186912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q367664","display_name":"Data modeling","level":2,"score":0.28349998593330383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124681953","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q339062","display_name":"Decomposition","level":2,"score":0.27559998631477356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2728999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.2703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163068380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409313","display_name":"Economic forecasting","level":2,"score":0.2615000009536743}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","pdf_url":"https://syssci.cjoe.ac.cn/EN/PDF/10.21078/JSSI-2024-0047","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210170797","display_name":"\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u62a5(\u82f1\u6587)","issn_l":"1478-9906","issn":["1478-9906","2512-6660"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-4","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u62a5(\u82f1\u6587)","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2024-0047","pdf_url":"https://syssci.cjoe.ac.cn/EN/PDF/10.21078/JSSI-2024-0047","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210170797","display_name":"\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u62a5(\u82f1\u6587)","issn_l":"1478-9906","issn":["1478-9906","2512-6660"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-4","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u62a5(\u82f1\u6587)","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6436258817","display_name":"\u5927\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u4ee3\u533a\u95f4\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u7814\u7a76","funder_award_id":"72073126","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7203602080.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7203602080.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4408934105","https://openalex.org/W4390658625","https://openalex.org/W96921181","https://openalex.org/W4396885136","https://openalex.org/W2898307789","https://openalex.org/W4405365182","https://openalex.org/W4401825251","https://openalex.org/W4366150404","https://openalex.org/W2167682389","https://openalex.org/W4390226821"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Accurately":[0],"forecasting":[1,60,97,100],"gasoline":[2,32,73,102,138],"volatility":[3,139],"is":[4,57],"significant":[5],"for":[6,15,59,137],"risk":[7],"management,":[8],"economic":[9],"analysis,":[10],"and":[11,26,61,79,116,129],"option":[12],"pricing":[13],"formulas":[14],"future":[16],"contracts.":[17],"This":[18],"study":[19],"proposes":[20],"a":[21],"novel":[22],"interval-valued":[23,68,94,135],"hierarchical":[24],"decomposition":[25],"ensemble":[27],"(IHDE)":[28],"approach":[29,110],"to":[30,48],"investigate":[31],"price":[33,43,64],"volatility.":[34],"Our":[35],"interval-based":[36],"IHDE":[37,109],"method":[38],"can":[39,81],"decompose":[40],"the":[41,50,70,90,107,112,120,131],"complex":[42,63],"process":[44],"into":[45],"different":[46,126],"components":[47,128],"capture":[49],"distinct":[51],"features":[52,124],"of":[53,72,77,93,122,125,134],"each":[54],"component,":[55],"which":[56],"helpful":[58],"analyzing":[62],"processes.":[65],"By":[66],"using":[67],"data,":[69],"dynamics":[71],"prices":[74],"in":[75,85],"terms":[76],"levels":[78],"variations":[80],"be":[82],"fully":[83],"utilized":[84],"this":[86],"study.":[87],"Fully":[88],"utilizing":[89,130],"informational":[91,132],"gain":[92,133],"data":[95,136],"improves":[96],"performance.":[98],"In":[99],"weekly":[101],"volatility,":[103],"we":[104],"document":[105],"that":[106],"proposed":[108],"outperforms":[111],"GARCH,":[113],"EGARCH,":[114],"CARR,":[115],"ACI":[117],"models,":[118],"indicating":[119],"importance":[121],"capturing":[123],"frequency":[127],"forecasts.":[140]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2026-08-18T00:00:00"}
