{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7202365161","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499","title":"Level, Pattern, and Occasion Noise in Forecasting","display_name":"Level, Pattern, and Occasion Noise in Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7202365161","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.7257499","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061876900","display_name":"Marat Salikhov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0188-5472","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0188-5472"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I116555385","display_name":"New Economic School","ror":"https://ror.org/033904843","country_code":"RU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I116555385"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2800142400","display_name":"Skolkovo Moscow School of Management","ror":"https://ror.org/04z9fas77","country_code":"RU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2800142400"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Marat Salikhov","raw_affiliation_strings":["New Economic School, 100A Novaya Street, Moscow, Skolkovo 143026, Russia","SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management, 1st km of Skolkovo highway, Odintsovsky District, Moscow 115035, Russia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"New Economic School, 100A Novaya Street, Moscow, Skolkovo 143026, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116555385"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management, 1st km of Skolkovo highway, Odintsovsky District, Moscow 115035, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800142400"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002818219","display_name":"Ville Satop\u00e4\u00e4","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3787-7303","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3787-7303","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4953-2254"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102272798","display_name":"INSEAD","ror":"https://ror.org/00ghzk478","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102272798"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210152270","display_name":"INSEAD","ror":"https://ror.org/05ynf4333","country_code":"SG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102272798","https://openalex.org/I4210152270"]}],"countries":["FR","SG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ville Satop\u00e4\u00e4","raw_affiliation_strings":["INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Boulevard de Constance, 77 305 Fontainebleau Cedex, France"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Boulevard de Constance, 77 305 Fontainebleau Cedex, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102272798","https://openalex.org/I4210152270"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5061876900"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116555385","https://openalex.org/I2800142400"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9789999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9789999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.016300000250339508,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.0013000000035390258,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/judgment-errors","display_name":"judgment errors","score":0.5929999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pattern-noise","display_name":"pattern noise","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/brier-score","display_name":"Brier score","score":0.9269999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-reflection","display_name":"cognitive reflection","score":0.621999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fluid-intelligence","display_name":"fluid intelligence","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/team-composition","display_name":"team composition","score":0.671999990940094}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99498987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2210247","display_name":"Noise (video)","level":3,"score":0.6037999987602234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.5507000088691711},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.517799973487854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4869999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.4300999939441681},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776359362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2145286","display_name":"Representation (politics)","level":3,"score":0.39570000767707825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4679612","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q866298","display_name":"Aggregate (composite)","level":2,"score":0.3903999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87868495","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q750843","display_name":"Information processing","level":2,"score":0.36649999022483826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165064840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1321061","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.35429999232292175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50817715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79895177","display_name":"Regret","level":2,"score":0.32580000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.32429999113082886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3154999911785126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776639384","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q840396","display_name":"Ideal (ethics)","level":2,"score":0.3086000084877014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75553542","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178161","display_name":"A priori and a posteriori","level":2,"score":0.3043999969959259},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C65682993","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1056451","display_name":"Reflection (computer programming)","level":2,"score":0.29420000314712524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.29159998893737793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.2833000123500824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.28279998898506165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.2721000015735626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35405484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4967066","display_name":"Brier score","level":2,"score":0.2712000012397766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2709999978542328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.2678000032901764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.2538999915122986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100675267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1371624","display_name":"Background noise","level":2,"score":0.2538999915122986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189430467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7293293","display_name":"Ranking (information retrieval)","level":2,"score":0.25369998812675476},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168167062","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1117970","display_name":"Component (thermodynamics)","level":2,"score":0.25290000438690186}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.7257499","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.7257499","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7257499","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4389455324","https://openalex.org/W2015724510","https://openalex.org/W2055213271","https://openalex.org/W3126961355","https://openalex.org/W4382314368","https://openalex.org/W2602153273","https://openalex.org/W3156602215","https://openalex.org/W3105786751","https://openalex.org/W2045066698","https://openalex.org/W2037877024"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-08-14T00:00:00"}