{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7202269652","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.09972","title":"Do AI weather models miss extremes?","display_name":"Do AI weather models miss extremes?","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-07-31","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7202269652","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.09972"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.09972","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09972","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09972","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09972","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5092413790","display_name":"Marvin Vincent Gabler","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gabler, Marvin Vincent","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103051899","display_name":"Roberto Molinaro","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8549-6791","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8549-6791"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Molinaro, Roberto","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125911268","display_name":"Niall Siegenheim","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Siegenheim, Niall","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028853860","display_name":"Henry Martin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0456-8539","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0456-8539"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Martin, Henry","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5119793662","display_name":"Mark Frey","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Frey, Mark","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125985926","display_name":"Niels Poulsen","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Poulsen, Niels","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125898400","display_name":"Philipp Seitz","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Seitz, Philipp","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5147060176","display_name":"Olivier Lam","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lam, Olivier","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.0012000000569969416,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12125","display_name":"Aerospace and Aviation Technology","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2202","display_name":"Aerospace Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-weather-events","display_name":"extreme weather events","score":0.5080000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecmwf-ifs","display_name":"ECMWF IFS","score":0.8500000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/station-observations","display_name":"station observations","score":0.5809999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/10-m-wind-speed","display_name":"10 m wind speed","score":0.7110000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2-m-air-temperature","display_name":"2 m air temperature","score":0.9359999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/solar-radiation","display_name":"solar radiation","score":0.9890000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/precipitation","display_name":"precipitation","score":0.996999979019165}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195452092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1055865","display_name":"Overcast","level":3,"score":0.6712999939918518},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.6520000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147947694","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837552","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.5742999911308289},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.48809999227523804},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987469573","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.4722999930381775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776272892","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7502249","display_name":"Shortwave","level":3,"score":0.4603999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.45249998569488525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.40720000863075256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.385699987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163109420","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q287011","display_name":"Global Forecast System","level":3,"score":0.38119998574256897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.30970001220703125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102561126","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17164865","display_name":"Tropical cyclone forecast model","level":3,"score":0.3093000054359436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19369268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7502259","display_name":"Shortwave radiation","level":3,"score":0.3027999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139945424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1940696","display_name":"Mean squared error","level":2,"score":0.29350000619888306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161067210","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1464943","display_name":"Wind speed","level":2,"score":0.29260000586509705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93038891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1061524","display_name":"Intensity (physics)","level":2,"score":0.29019999504089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133204551","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q838305","display_name":"Weather Research and Forecasting Model","level":2,"score":0.28220000863075256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42536954","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7049462","display_name":"Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model","level":3,"score":0.2556999921798706},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779395273","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q846837","display_name":"Automatic weather station","level":2,"score":0.25540000200271606}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.09972","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09972","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09972","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2608.09972","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.09972","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.09972","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-sa","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.09972","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09972","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09972","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.9786999821662903,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7202269652.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7202269652.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":20,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2021530952","https://openalex.org/W3025949386","https://openalex.org/W4383218913","https://openalex.org/W4388654737","https://openalex.org/W4393041535","https://openalex.org/W4395010148","https://openalex.org/W4399401448","https://openalex.org/W4399668152","https://openalex.org/W4403667177","https://openalex.org/W4404143263","https://openalex.org/W4405031167","https://openalex.org/W4407091855","https://openalex.org/W4410551352","https://openalex.org/W6930528298","https://openalex.org/W7120088557","https://openalex.org/W7126248709","https://openalex.org/W7127046044","https://openalex.org/W7128782078","https://openalex.org/W7158534923","https://openalex.org/W7171822430"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7223318463","https://openalex.org/W7160118411","https://openalex.org/W7222110965","https://openalex.org/W4416051540","https://openalex.org/W7220401513","https://openalex.org/W7165600468","https://openalex.org/W7170166157","https://openalex.org/W7165692131","https://openalex.org/W7223021166","https://openalex.org/W7222544087"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"AI":[0,24,69,137],"weather":[1],"models":[2,15,26,70],"are":[3],"often":[4],"reported":[5],"to":[6],"underestimate":[7],"extremes,":[8],"but":[9],"most":[10],"evidence":[11],"concerns":[12],"deterministic":[13],"regression":[14],"verified":[16],"against":[17,27],"reanalysis.":[18],"We":[19,59],"evaluate":[20],"twelve":[21],"physical":[22,87,139],"and":[23,48,100,125],"forecast":[25,133],"ECMWF":[28],"IFS":[29,75],"using":[30],"ten":[31],"months":[32],"of":[33,105,115],"European":[34],"station":[35],"observations.":[36,103],"The":[37],"evaluation":[38,126],"covers":[39],"10":[40],"m":[41,44],"wind,":[42],"2":[43],"temperature,":[45],"solar":[46],"radiation,":[47],"precipitation":[49],"within":[50],"regimes":[51],"defined":[52],"from":[53],"a":[54,93,112],"fixed":[55],"ERA5":[56],"1991-2020":[57],"climatology.":[58],"find":[60],"no":[61],"uniform":[62,113],"AI-specific":[63],"deficit":[64],"in":[65],"the":[66,122,132],"tails.":[67],"Several":[68],"remain":[71],"more":[72],"accurate":[73],"than":[74,129],"under":[76],"extreme":[77,106],"conditions,":[78],"while":[79],"others":[80],"deteriorate":[81],"markedly;":[82],"comparable":[83],"variation":[84],"occurs":[85],"among":[86],"models.":[88],"Every":[89],"model":[90],"nevertheless":[91],"exhibits":[92],"common":[94],"conditional-error":[95],"pattern,":[96],"overpredicting":[97],"low":[98],"observations":[99],"underpredicting":[101],"high":[102],"Attenuation":[104],"values":[107],"therefore":[108],"does":[109],"not":[110],"imply":[111],"loss":[114],"relative":[116],"skill:":[117],"tail":[118],"performance":[119],"depends":[120],"on":[121,130],"model,":[123],"variable,":[124],"setting":[127],"rather":[128],"whether":[131],"is":[134],"produced":[135],"by":[136],"or":[138],"numerical":[140],"modelling.":[141]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2026-08-13T00:00:00"}