{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7202223509","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.09166","title":"Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces","display_name":"Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-10","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7202223509","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.09166"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.09166","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09166","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09166","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09166","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5153486064","display_name":"Lu\u00eds Marques","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","display_name":"University of Michigan","ror":"https://ror.org/00jmfr291","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marques, Lu\u00eds","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Robotics , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , 48109 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Robotics , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , 48109 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5146503147","display_name":"Kristian Popov","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","display_name":"University of Michigan","ror":"https://ror.org/00jmfr291","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Popov, Kristian","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Robotics , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , 48109 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Robotics , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , 48109 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083082888","display_name":"Dmitry Berenson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9712-109X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9712-109X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","display_name":"University of Michigan","ror":"https://ror.org/00jmfr291","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Berenson, Dmitry","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Robotics , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , 48109 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Robotics , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , 48109 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10586","display_name":"Robotic Path Planning Algorithms","score":0.4221000075340271,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10586","display_name":"Robotic Path Planning Algorithms","score":0.4221000075340271,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10653","display_name":"Robot Manipulation and Learning","score":0.24940000474452972,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10462","display_name":"Reinforcement Learning in Robotics","score":0.12309999763965607,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conformal-prediction","display_name":"conformal prediction","score":0.9800000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-calibration","display_name":"uncertainty calibration","score":0.9860000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/motion-uncertainty","display_name":"motion uncertainty","score":0.5519999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/configuration-space","display_name":"configuration space","score":0.4560000002384186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/robot-planning","display_name":"robot planning","score":0.3409999907016754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/peg-in-hole-insertion","display_name":"peg-in-hole insertion","score":0.8539999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-discrepancy","display_name":"model mismatch","score":0.46799999475479126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coverage-probability","display_name":"coverage probability","score":0.47099998593330383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/capture","display_name":"capture","score":0.5839999914169312}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776359362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2145286","display_name":"Representation (politics)","level":3,"score":0.6955999732017517},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.6660000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C90509273","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11012","display_name":"Robot","level":2,"score":0.6488000154495239},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165838908","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q736777","display_name":"Calibration","level":2,"score":0.6025000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C104114177","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79782","display_name":"Motion (physics)","level":2,"score":0.5555999875068665},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33676613","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13415176","display_name":"Dimension (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.5516999959945679},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.531499981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98214594","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q850275","display_name":"Conformal map","level":2,"score":0.4982999861240387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81074085","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q366872","display_name":"Motion planning","level":3,"score":0.4650000035762787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19966478","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4810574","display_name":"Mobile robot","level":3,"score":0.4325999915599823},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.42590001225471497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778572836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380933","display_name":"Space (punctuation)","level":2,"score":0.38499999046325684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C90738871","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q41642869","display_name":"Configuration space","level":2,"score":0.384799987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.3743000030517578},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177803969","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q29205","display_name":"Uncertainty analysis","level":2,"score":0.3321000039577484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.2971000075340271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C31972630","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q844240","display_name":"Computer vision","level":1,"score":0.2955999970436096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123614077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1364905","display_name":"Propagation of uncertainty","level":2,"score":0.28929999470710754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2874000072479248},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.28450000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.2827000021934509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.27709999680519104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.26750001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137209882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1403517","display_name":"Measurement uncertainty","level":2,"score":0.26429998874664307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47446073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5165890","display_name":"Control theory (sociology)","level":3,"score":0.2574999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44154836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45045","display_name":"Simulation","level":1,"score":0.2542000114917755}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.09166","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09166","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09166","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2608.09166","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.09166","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.09166","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.09166","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09166","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.09166","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2554158788","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"N00014-24-1-2036","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337345","funder_display_name":"Office of Naval Research"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7114549147","display_name":"Overcoming Epistemic Uncertainty to Plan with Learned Dynamics Models for Robotic Manipulation","funder_award_id":"2113401","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7173018831","display_name":"NRI: Integrating Perception and Manipulation of Deformable Objects by Learning Implicit Representations","funder_award_id":"2220876","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8876996369","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"N00014","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337345","funder_display_name":"Office of Naval Research"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337345","display_name":"Office of Naval Research","ror":"https://ror.org/00rk2pe57"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7202223509.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7202223509.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":3,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W3024249377","https://openalex.org/W4404571268","https://openalex.org/W7161138596"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7220862614","https://openalex.org/W2692483034","https://openalex.org/W4403885093","https://openalex.org/W2773468568","https://openalex.org/W7161138596","https://openalex.org/W7213502588","https://openalex.org/W7095192385","https://openalex.org/W7014566590","https://openalex.org/W1574453250","https://openalex.org/W7125652731"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Reliable":[0],"uncertainty":[1,20,82,165,186],"representation":[2],"is":[3,28],"essential":[4,85],"for":[5,52,86],"deploying":[6],"autonomous":[7],"systems":[8],"that":[9,62],"interact":[10],"with":[11,32,220],"their":[12],"environment,":[13],"as":[14],"robots":[15],"must":[16],"reason":[17],"about":[18],"how":[19,184],"arising":[21],"from":[22],"both":[23,198,233],"stochasticity":[24],"and":[25,88,190,215,235,239],"model":[26],"mismatch":[27],"impacted":[29],"by":[30],"contacts":[31,123],"obstacles":[33],"(e.g.,":[34],"when":[35,120],"navigating":[36],"through":[37],"a":[38,43,57,121,155,177,210,213,221,243],"cluttered":[39],"environment":[40],"or":[41,92,116,135,137],"inserting":[42],"part":[44],"into":[45],"an":[46,124],"assembly).":[47],"We":[48,200],"propose":[49],"Calibrated":[50],"Particle-sets":[51],"Trans-dimensional":[53],"Uncertainty":[54],"Representation":[55],"(CaPTURe),":[56],"geometry-aware,":[58],"conformal":[59],"prediction-based":[60],"algorithm":[61],"generates":[63],"probabilistically":[64],"valid":[65],"prediction":[66],"regions":[67,168],"of":[68,77,128,141,148,158,237],"the":[69,126,146,172,229,252],"unknown":[70],"future":[71,130,173],"system":[72,159],"configuration":[73,175],"using":[74],"particle-based":[75],"models":[76,95],"arbitrary":[78],"fidelity.":[79],"While":[80],"calibrated":[81],"predictions":[83],"are":[84,96],"safe":[87],"efficient":[89],"planning,":[90],"analytical":[91],"learned":[93],"motion":[94,164,185],"often":[97],"inaccurate":[98],"-":[99,109],"due":[100],"to":[101,113,161,170,194,224,242],"limited":[102],"data,":[103],"simplifying":[104],"assumptions,":[105],"unmodeled":[106],"effects,":[107],"etc.":[108],"which":[110],"can":[111,132],"lead":[112],"unsafe":[114],"executions":[115],"task":[117,248],"failure.":[118],"Additionally,":[119],"robot":[122,150,174],"obstacle,":[125],"distribution":[127],"its":[129],"configurations":[131],"become":[133],"multimodal":[134],"disjoint,":[136],"lie":[138],"along":[139],"manifolds":[140],"lower":[142],"intrinsic":[143],"dimension":[144],"than":[145],"space":[147],"possible":[149],"configurations.":[151],"Our":[152,180],"method":[153,203],"uses":[154],"calibration":[156,181],"dataset":[157],"transitions":[160],"locally":[162],"calibrate":[163],"estimates,":[166],"constructing":[167],"guaranteed":[169],"contain":[171],"at":[176],"user-set":[178],"probability.":[179],"procedure":[182],"captures":[183],"varies":[187],"between":[188],"contact-rich":[189],"contactless":[191],"motions,":[192],"leading":[193],"sufficient":[195],"coverage":[196,231],"in":[197,234,247],"cases.":[199],"evaluate":[201],"our":[202],"on":[204],"two":[205],"simulated":[206],"planning":[207],"tasks:":[208],"controlling":[209],"marble":[211],"around":[212],"labyrinth":[214],"performing":[216],"tight-tolerance":[217],"peg-in-hole":[218],"insertion":[219],"manipulator.":[222],"Compared":[223],"relevant":[225],"baselines,":[226],"CaPTURe":[227],"achieves":[228,240],"user-specified":[230],"requirement":[232],"out":[236],"contact":[238],"up":[241],"30%":[244],"absolute":[245],"improvement":[246],"success":[249],"rate":[250],"over":[251],"best":[253],"baseline.":[254]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-08-12T00:00:00"}
