{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7202208688","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","title":"What determined match outcomes at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? An explainable machine learning analysis of penalty area precision and composure under pressure","display_name":"What determined match outcomes at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? An explainable machine learning analysis of penalty area precision and composure under pressure","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7202208688","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42948360","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/13712262"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","pdf_url":"https://www.termedia.pl/Journal/-78/pdf-58477-10?filename=117_06132_Article.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S48088588","display_name":"Biology of Sport","issn_l":"0860-021X","issn":["0860-021X","2083-1862"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320332","host_organization_name":"Termedia Publishing House","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320332"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Termedia Publishing House"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biology of Sport","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.termedia.pl/Journal/-78/pdf-58477-10?filename=117_06132_Article.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5129490806","display_name":"Ismail Dergaa","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I83259278","display_name":"Manouba University","ror":"https://ror.org/0503ejf32","country_code":"TN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83259278"]}],"countries":["TN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ismail Dergaa","raw_affiliation_strings":["High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Ksar Said, University of Manouba, Tunisia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Ksar Said, University of Manouba, Tunisia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I83259278"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051397990","display_name":"Ryland Morgans","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2007-4827","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2007-4827"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8408910","display_name":"Cardiff Metropolitan University","ror":"https://ror.org/00bqvf857","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8408910"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ryland Morgans","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Sport and Health Sciences, Cardiff Metropolitan University, Cardiff, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Sport and Health Sciences, Cardiff Metropolitan University, Cardiff, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8408910"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070356831","display_name":"Karim Chamari","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9178-7678","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9178-7678"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405269598","display_name":"Naufar","ror":"https://ror.org/04n2gxn39","country_code":"QA","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405269598"]}],"countries":["QA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Karim Chamari","raw_affiliation_strings":["Naufar Center, Doha, Qatar"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Naufar Center, Doha, Qatar","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405269598"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5129490806"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I83259278"],"apc_list":{"value":480,"currency":"USD","value_usd":480},"apc_paid":{"value":480,"currency":"USD","value_usd":480},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.53442494,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"43","issue":null,"first_page":"1677","last_page":"1692"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.5303000211715698,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.5303000211715698,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10157","display_name":"Sports Performance and Training","score":0.4641000032424927,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2732","display_name":"Orthopedics and Sports Medicine"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10813","display_name":"Sport Psychology and Performance","score":0.0017000000225380063,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2026-fifa-world-cup","display_name":"2026 FIFA World Cup","score":0.9739999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/match-outcome-prediction","display_name":"match outcome prediction","score":0.7429999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/team-performance-metrics","display_name":"team performance metrics","score":0.44999998807907104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shap","display_name":"SHAP","score":0.7480000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/walking-distance","display_name":"walking distance","score":0.5740000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/duel","display_name":"dueling","score":0.5509999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/winning-probability","display_name":"winning probability","score":0.4090000092983246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/knockout-stage","display_name":"knockout stage","score":0.3630000054836273}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5848000049591064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5214999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5164999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44154836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45045","display_name":"Simulation","level":1,"score":0.22339999675750732},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2223999947309494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.22210000455379486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10431821","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6510174","display_name":"Learning effect","level":2,"score":0.21889999508857727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.21729999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169258074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q245748","display_name":"Random forest","level":2,"score":0.21369999647140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.20600000023841858}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","pdf_url":"https://www.termedia.pl/Journal/-78/pdf-58477-10?filename=117_06132_Article.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S48088588","display_name":"Biology of Sport","issn_l":"0860-021X","issn":["0860-021X","2083-1862"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320332","host_organization_name":"Termedia Publishing House","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320332"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Termedia Publishing House"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biology of Sport","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:13712262","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13712262/","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13712262/pdf/JBS-43-58477.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biol Sport","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:42948360","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42948360","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biology of sport","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2026.164000","pdf_url":"https://www.termedia.pl/Journal/-78/pdf-58477-10?filename=117_06132_Article.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S48088588","display_name":"Biology of Sport","issn_l":"0860-021X","issn":["0860-021X","2083-1862"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320332","host_organization_name":"Termedia Publishing House","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320332"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Termedia Publishing House"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biology of Sport","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7202208688.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7202208688.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7214099496","https://openalex.org/W7212248741","https://openalex.org/W7160543704","https://openalex.org/W6885171741","https://openalex.org/W7100946732","https://openalex.org/W6960021661","https://openalex.org/W7204276524","https://openalex.org/W7214219716","https://openalex.org/W7169506952","https://openalex.org/W7163650990"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,124],"2026":[1],"FIFA":[2,20],"World":[3,41,89],"Cup":[4,90],"was":[5,207],"the":[6,34,95,99,132,152,169,173,197,208,219,241],"first":[7,88,146],"edition":[8],"played":[9],"by":[10],"48":[11],"teams":[12,187],"across":[13,212],"104":[14],"matches.":[15,142],"We":[16],"analysed":[17,38],"142":[18],"official":[19],"metrics":[21,61],"per":[22,24],"team":[23],"match,":[25],"including":[26],"line":[27],"breaks,":[28],"pressing":[29],"events":[30],"and":[31,44,82,117,165,228,234],"receptions":[32],"between":[33],"lines,":[35],"none":[36,189],"previously":[37],"at":[39,115,119,196],"a":[40,87],"Cup.":[42],"Win":[43,111],"loss":[45],"performances":[46],"were":[47,64],"compared":[48],"with":[49,66],"Cliff's":[50],"delta":[51,108,215],"under":[52,69,131],"false":[53],"discovery":[54],"rate":[55],"control;":[56],"86":[57],"of":[58,121,184,201],"125":[59],"screened":[60],"differed.":[62],"Outcomes":[63],"modelled":[65],"five":[67,179],"algorithms":[68],"repeated":[70],"stratified":[71],"cross-validation,":[72],"using":[73],"team-minus-opponent":[74],"differentials.":[75],"Explainability":[76],"used":[77,84],"SHapley":[78],"Additive":[79],"exPlanations":[80],"(SHAP),":[81],"uncertainty":[83],"split-conformal":[85],"analysis,":[86],"combination.":[91],"On-target":[92],"attempts":[93,161,167],"inside":[94,168,218],"penalty":[96,170],"area":[97,130,171],"showed":[98,225],"largest":[100],"single":[101],"effect":[102],"(winners":[103],"4.4":[104],"versus":[105],"losers":[106],"1.7;":[107],"=":[109,216,232],"0.68).":[110],"probability":[112],"crossed":[113],"50%":[114],"2.9":[116],"75%":[118],"4.3":[120],"these":[122,237],"attempts.":[123],"regularised":[125],"differential":[126],"logistic":[127],"model":[128],"reached":[129],"curve":[133],"0.946":[134],"(accuracy":[135],"0.875),":[136],"read":[137],"descriptively":[138],"because":[139],"features":[140],"exceed":[141],"Walking":[143],"distance":[144],"ranked":[145],"in":[147,151],"averaged":[148,194],"SHAP":[149],"importance":[150],"gradient":[153],"boosting":[154],"model;":[155],"its":[156],"strongest":[157],"interactions":[158],"joined":[159],"total":[160],"on":[162],"target":[163],"(0.79)":[164],"on-target":[166],"(0.71),":[172],"second-ranked":[174],"feature.":[175],"Teams":[176],"dominating":[177,188],"all":[178],"leading":[180],"duels":[181],"won":[182,190],"92%":[183],"decided":[185],"matches;":[186],"13%.":[191],"Conformal":[192],"coverage":[193],"0.885":[195],"90%":[198],"target;":[199],"15%":[200],"matches":[202],"remained":[203],"uncertain.":[204],"Finishing":[205],"precision":[206],"most":[209,242],"consistent":[210],"discriminator":[211],"stratifications":[213],"(balanced-pairing":[214],"0.53":[217],"box,":[220],"-0.54":[221],"conceded).":[222],"Pressure-resistant":[223],"possession":[224],"strong":[226],"overall":[227],"knockout-stage":[229],"associations":[230],"(delta":[231],"0.56":[233],"0.65).":[235],"Building":[236],"two":[238],"capacities":[239],"is":[240],"defensible":[243],"practical":[244],"priority,":[245],"pending":[246],"prospective":[247],"confirmation.":[248]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-01T11:40:01.658920","created_date":"2026-08-12T00:00:00"}
