{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7202038934","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","title":"Comparison of Tree-Based Survival Models for Predicting Graduate Study Duration and Risk Stratification","display_name":"Comparison of Tree-Based Survival Models for Predicting Graduate Study Duration and Risk Stratification","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7202038934","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","pdf_url":"https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/sji/article/download/48890/11010","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210171202","display_name":"Scientific Journal of Informatics","issn_l":"2407-7658","issn":["2407-7658","2460-0040"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315212","host_organization_name":"Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315212"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Scientific Journal of Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/sji/article/download/48890/11010","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5146192099","display_name":"Ahmad Syauqi","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I21881038","display_name":"IPB University","ror":"https://ror.org/05smgpd89","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I21881038"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ahmad Syauqi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Statistics and Data Science Program, IPB University, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistics and Data Science Program, IPB University, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I21881038"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063032305","display_name":"Anwar Fitrianto","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7050-3082","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7050-3082"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I21881038","display_name":"IPB University","ror":"https://ror.org/05smgpd89","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I21881038"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anwar Fitrianto","raw_affiliation_strings":["Statistics and Data Science Program, IPB University, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistics and Data Science Program, IPB University, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I21881038"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062798434","display_name":"Hari Wijayanto","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7507-2602","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7507-2602"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I21881038","display_name":"IPB University","ror":"https://ror.org/05smgpd89","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I21881038"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hari Wijayanto","raw_affiliation_strings":["Statistics and Data Science Program, IPB University, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistics and Data Science Program, IPB University, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I21881038"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I21881038"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.483,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.87785512,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":"3","first_page":"581","last_page":"590"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.9351000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.9351000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13373","display_name":"Data Mining and Machine Learning Applications","score":0.02930000051856041,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14241","display_name":"Evasion and Academic Success Factors","score":0.008200000040233135,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3304","display_name":"Education"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/delayed-graduation","display_name":"delayed graduation","score":0.753000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-stratification","display_name":"risk stratification","score":0.828000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/survival-trees","display_name":"survival trees","score":0.49300000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/random-survival-forest","display_name":"random survival forest","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-to-event-prediction","display_name":"time-to-event prediction","score":0.7609999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/master-s-students","display_name":"master's students","score":0.734000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/academic-monitoring","display_name":"academic monitoring","score":0.8989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-intervention","display_name":"early intervention","score":0.6520000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/higher-education","display_name":"higher education","score":0.5270000100135803}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35405484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4967066","display_name":"Brier score","level":2,"score":0.7192000150680542},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10515644","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q543310","display_name":"Survival analysis","level":2,"score":0.5845000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160798450","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4230870","display_name":"Concordance","level":2,"score":0.5174000263214111},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169258074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q245748","display_name":"Random forest","level":2,"score":0.448199987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.44200000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84525736","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q831366","display_name":"Decision tree","level":2,"score":0.4129999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.4074000120162964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.40230000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45804977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239673","display_name":"Predictive modelling","level":2,"score":0.40119999647140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102959455","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7313954","display_name":"Repeated measures design","level":2,"score":0.39160001277923584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C70153297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5591907","display_name":"Gradient boosting","level":3,"score":0.3865000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C46686674","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466303","display_name":"Boosting (machine learning)","level":2,"score":0.36550000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12174686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058438","display_name":"Risk assessment","level":2,"score":0.34139999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020404979","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058438","display_name":"Risk stratification","level":2,"score":0.33889999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.32330000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C20685875","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239678","display_name":"Predictive validity","level":2,"score":0.3181999921798706},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112758219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16038819","display_name":"Duration (music)","level":2,"score":0.3181000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993277928","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7248370","display_name":"Prognostic model","level":3,"score":0.29510000348091125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201903717","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1778788","display_name":"Cohort study","level":2,"score":0.2922999858856201},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C5481197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16766476","display_name":"Decision tree learning","level":3,"score":0.2912999987602234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2856999933719635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72563966","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1303415","display_name":"Cohort","level":2,"score":0.28529998660087585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11783203","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5478027","display_name":"Framingham Risk Score","level":3,"score":0.27790001034736633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154020017","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q520171","display_name":"Repeatability","level":2,"score":0.2671999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192943249","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1893382","display_name":"Stratification (seeds)","level":5,"score":0.2524000108242035}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","pdf_url":"https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/sji/article/download/48890/11010","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210171202","display_name":"Scientific Journal of Informatics","issn_l":"2407-7658","issn":["2407-7658","2460-0040"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315212","host_organization_name":"Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315212"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Scientific Journal of Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v13i3.48890","pdf_url":"https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/sji/article/download/48890/11010","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210171202","display_name":"Scientific Journal of Informatics","issn_l":"2407-7658","issn":["2407-7658","2460-0040"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315212","host_organization_name":"Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315212"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Scientific Journal of Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4","display_name":"Quality education","score":0.6164000034332275},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.5683000087738037}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7202038934.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7202038934.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":28,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2968589464","https://openalex.org/W3173781692","https://openalex.org/W4211167018","https://openalex.org/W4221075601","https://openalex.org/W4229454497","https://openalex.org/W4284963503","https://openalex.org/W4285158980","https://openalex.org/W4290044378","https://openalex.org/W4292821207","https://openalex.org/W4297152765","https://openalex.org/W4328114002","https://openalex.org/W4366545279","https://openalex.org/W4384695947","https://openalex.org/W4384929326","https://openalex.org/W4386318957","https://openalex.org/W4387617093","https://openalex.org/W4387948625","https://openalex.org/W4391275573","https://openalex.org/W4391317498","https://openalex.org/W4391746054","https://openalex.org/W4391942283","https://openalex.org/W4396558738","https://openalex.org/W4396704776","https://openalex.org/W4399455197","https://openalex.org/W4401711544","https://openalex.org/W4403126225","https://openalex.org/W4410948236","https://openalex.org/W4415428374"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7011067629","https://openalex.org/W7170810739","https://openalex.org/W7133522983","https://openalex.org/W4416455421","https://openalex.org/W7203979571","https://openalex.org/W2911795891","https://openalex.org/W2975137943","https://openalex.org/W7215915917","https://openalex.org/W4414444307","https://openalex.org/W4400079645"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Purpose:":[0],"This":[1,229],"study":[2,17,28,230],"aims":[3],"to":[4,38,172,209],"develop":[5],"and":[6,19,42,88,120,159,168,175,197,220,262,268],"evaluate":[7],"a":[8,100,141,232],"tree-based":[9,70,237],"survival":[10,71,97,138,203,238,251],"machine":[11,239],"learning":[12,240],"framework":[13],"for":[14,33,265],"predicting":[15],"graduate":[16],"duration":[18],"identifying":[20],"students":[21,64,193,206],"at":[22,140],"risk":[23,257],"of":[24,235,249],"delayed":[25],"graduation.":[26],"The":[27,93,177,247],"addresses":[29],"the":[30,66,132,148,154,160],"growing":[31],"need":[32],"accurate":[34],"educational":[35,244],"time-to-event":[36,245],"prediction":[37,169],"support":[39],"academic":[40,266],"monitoring":[41,267],"data-driven":[43],"decision-making":[44],"in":[45,272],"higher":[46,273],"education":[47],"institutions,":[48],"including":[49],"IPB":[50],"University.":[51],"Methods:":[52],"A":[53],"quantitative":[54],"predictive":[55,151,184],"analysis":[56,94],"was":[57,106,128],"conducted":[58,107],"using":[59,108,131],"data":[60,98,187],"from":[61,65,224],"3,417":[62],"master":[63],"2020\u20132022":[67],"cohorts.":[68],"Four":[69],"models":[72,241],"were":[73,216],"evaluated,":[74],"namely":[75],"Survival":[76,81,85,91],"Tree":[77,82],"(ST),":[78],"Extremely":[79],"Randomized":[80],"(EST),":[83],"Random":[84],"Forest":[86],"(RSF),":[87],"Gradient":[89],"Boosting":[90],"(GBS).":[92],"used":[95],"right-censored":[96],"with":[99,116,153,200,254],"42-month":[101],"observation":[102],"period.":[103],"Model":[104],"evaluation":[105,179,234,253],"repeated":[109,178,250],"stratified":[110],"random":[111],"split":[112],"validation":[113],"(10":[114],"repetitions)":[115],"Concordance":[117],"Index":[118],"(C-index)":[119],"Integrated":[121],"Brier":[122],"Score":[123],"(IBS)":[124],"metrics.":[125],"Risk":[126,189],"stratification":[127,190,258],"subsequently":[129],"performed":[130],"best-performing":[133],"model":[134,252],"based":[135],"on":[136],"predicted":[137],"probabilities":[139],"24-month":[142],"time":[143],"horizon.":[144],"Result:":[145],"GBS":[146],"achieved":[147],"best":[149],"overall":[150],"performance":[152,185],"highest":[155],"mean":[156,162],"C-index":[157],"(0.659)":[158],"lowest":[161],"IBS":[163],"(0.194),":[164],"indicating":[165],"superior":[166],"discrimination":[167],"accuracy":[170],"compared":[171],"ST,":[173],"EST,":[174],"RSF.":[176],"results":[180],"also":[181],"demonstrated":[182],"stable":[183],"across":[186],"partitions.":[188],"successfully":[191],"separated":[192],"into":[194],"low-,":[195],"medium-,":[196],"high-risk":[198],"groups":[199],"significantly":[201],"different":[202],"patterns.":[204],"High-risk":[205],"generally":[207],"tended":[208],"be":[210],"older,":[211],"have":[212],"lower":[213],"undergraduate":[214,226],"GPA,":[215],"more":[217,221],"often":[218],"male,":[219],"frequently":[222],"originate":[223],"private":[225],"institutions.":[227],"Novelty:":[228],"provides":[231],"comparative":[233],"multiple":[236],"within":[242],"an":[243],"framework.":[246],"integration":[248],"practical":[255],"student":[256],"offers":[259],"both":[260],"methodological":[261],"applied":[263],"contributions":[264],"early":[269],"intervention":[270],"strategies":[271],"education.":[274]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-13T13:42:25.865203","created_date":"2026-08-10T00:00:00"}