{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7201870751","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","title":"Bayesian Deep Knowledge Tracing: A Hybrid Bayesian-Neural Approach to Student Modeling","display_name":"Bayesian Deep Knowledge Tracing: A Hybrid Bayesian-Neural Approach to Student Modeling","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-07-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7201870751","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4363607900","display_name":"International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2026 12th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"volume":null,"type":"conference-paper","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5145936436","display_name":"M. E. Narovanjanahary","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210104797","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Fianarantsoa","ror":"https://ror.org/01emdt307","country_code":"MG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210104797"]}],"countries":["MG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"M. E. Narovanjanahary","raw_affiliation_strings":["University de Fianarantsoa"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University de Fianarantsoa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210104797"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5116500583","display_name":"Jean Christian Ralaivao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-5157-1826","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0002-5157-1826"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210104797","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Fianarantsoa","ror":"https://ror.org/01emdt307","country_code":"MG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210104797"]}],"countries":["MG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J. C. Ralaivao","raw_affiliation_strings":["University de Fianarantsoa"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University de Fianarantsoa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210104797"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071258770","display_name":"Alain Josu\u00e9 Ratovondrahona","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3749-4400","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3749-4400"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210104797","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Fianarantsoa","ror":"https://ror.org/01emdt307","country_code":"MG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210104797"]}],"countries":["MG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"A. Ratovondrahona","raw_affiliation_strings":["University de Fianarantsoa"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University de Fianarantsoa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210104797"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041817211","display_name":"Thomas Mahatody","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8060-601X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8060-601X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210104797","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Fianarantsoa","ror":"https://ror.org/01emdt307","country_code":"MG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210104797"]}],"countries":["MG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"T. Mahatody","raw_affiliation_strings":["University de Fianarantsoa"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University de Fianarantsoa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210104797"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5043407289","display_name":"N M V Ravonimanantsoa","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137724175","display_name":"University of Antananarivo","ror":"https://ror.org/02w4gwv87","country_code":"MG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137724175"]}],"countries":["MG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"N. M. V. Ravonimanantsoa","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Antananarivo"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Antananarivo","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137724175"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1842","last_page":"1847"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11902","display_name":"Intelligent Tutoring Systems and Adaptive Learning","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11902","display_name":"Intelligent Tutoring Systems and Adaptive Learning","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.00039999998989515007,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14414","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence in Education","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3304","display_name":"Education"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/knowledge-tracing","display_name":"knowledge tracing","score":0.8840000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/student-modeling","display_name":"student modeling","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-calibration","display_name":"uncertainty calibration","score":0.6190000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epistemic-uncertainty","display_name":"epistemic uncertainty","score":0.9900000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/aleatoric-uncertainty","display_name":"aleatoric uncertainty","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monte-carlo-dropout","display_name":"Monte Carlo dropout","score":0.8840000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/adaptive-tutoring-systems","display_name":"adaptive tutoring systems","score":0.8920000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-skills","display_name":"mathematical skills","score":0.41200000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-calibration-error","display_name":"expected calibration error","score":0.6909999847412109}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.6103000044822693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6021999716758728},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.4341000020503998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108583219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q197536","display_name":"Deep learning","level":2,"score":0.41130000352859497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.4025000035762787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.35199999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101112237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4874481","display_name":"Bayesian statistics","level":4,"score":0.3052000105381012},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3019999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.2989000082015991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776401178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12050496","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.29330000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.28619998693466187},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.28369998931884766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.25540000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192209626","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190909","display_name":"Focus (optics)","level":2,"score":0.25440001487731934}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4363607900","display_name":"International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2026 12th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit70676.2026.11630778","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4363607900","display_name":"International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2026 12th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9235000014305115,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4","display_name":"Quality education"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":9,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1597703949","https://openalex.org/W2015040676","https://openalex.org/W2064675550","https://openalex.org/W2559094423","https://openalex.org/W3040479400","https://openalex.org/W4230399697","https://openalex.org/W4360981599","https://openalex.org/W4408152992","https://openalex.org/W4413932982"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W6903605605","https://openalex.org/W3095215888","https://openalex.org/W2576321379","https://openalex.org/W2984343630","https://openalex.org/W2575249544","https://openalex.org/W2962987155","https://openalex.org/W2805222109","https://openalex.org/W4312755630","https://openalex.org/W7095492066","https://openalex.org/W7214253951"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Adaptive":[0],"tutoring":[1],"systems":[2],"depend":[3],"on":[4,158],"accurate,":[5],"trustworthy":[6],"estimates":[7],"of":[8,23,53,163,203],"student":[9,135,205],"knowledge\u2014yet":[10],"most":[11],"existing":[12],"knowledge":[13,75],"tracing":[14],"models":[15],"produce":[16],"point":[17],"predictions":[18],"that":[19,43,60,107],"carry":[20],"no":[21],"measure":[22],"their":[24],"own":[25],"reliability.":[26],"When":[27],"a":[28,32,54,69,83,148,159],"system":[29],"cannot":[30],"distinguish":[31],"confident":[33],"prediction":[34],"from":[35,128,152],"an":[36,91],"uncertain":[37],"one,":[38],"it":[39],"risks":[40],"triggering":[41],"interventions":[42],"are":[44,77],"pedagogically":[45],"inappropriate,":[46],"particularly":[47],"in":[48,72,134,179],"early":[49],"or":[50,104],"data-scarce":[51],"stages":[52],"learning":[55],"sequence.":[56],"This":[57],"work":[58],"addresses":[59],"limitation":[61],"by":[62,191],"introducing":[63],"Bayesian":[64],"Deep":[65],"Knowledge":[66],"Tracing":[67],"(BDKT),":[68],"hybrid":[70],"framework":[71],"which":[73],"latent":[74],"states":[76],"represented":[78],"as":[79,99],"posterior":[80],"distributions":[81],"over":[82,164,177],"multi-skill":[84],"space":[85],"and":[86,101,186],"propagated":[87],"through":[88],"time":[89],"via":[90],"LSTM-based":[92],"transition":[93],"model.":[94],"Unlike":[95],"deterministic":[96],"tracers":[97],"such":[98],"DKT,":[100],"unlike":[102],"attention-":[103],"graph-based":[105],"extensions":[106],"improve":[108],"predictive":[109],"accuracy":[110],"without":[111],"addressing":[112],"calibration,":[113],"BDKT":[114,172],"couples":[115],"sequential":[116],"neural":[117,154],"modeling":[118],"with":[119],"Monte":[120],"Carlo":[121],"dropout":[122],"to":[123],"quantify":[124],"both":[125],"epistemic":[126],"uncertainty\u2014stemming":[127],"limited":[129],"data\u2014and":[130],"aleatoric":[131],"uncertainty":[132],"inherent":[133],"responses.":[136],"A":[137],"graph-informed":[138],"multivariate":[139],"Gaussian":[140],"covariance":[141],"further":[142],"encodes":[143],"prerequisite":[144],"dependencies":[145],"among":[146],"skills,":[147,171],"structural":[149],"dimension":[150],"absent":[151],"prior":[153],"KT":[155],"models.":[156],"Evaluated":[157],"large-scale":[160],"public":[161],"dataset":[162],"500":[165],"000":[166],"interactions":[167],"spanning":[168],"30":[169],"mathematical":[170],"yields":[173],"statistically":[174],"significant":[175],"improvements":[176],"DKT":[178],"discrimination":[180],"(AUC":[181],"0.87":[182],"vs.":[183,196],"0.83,":[184],"p<0.01)":[185],"reduces":[187],"expected":[188],"calibration":[189],"error":[190],"nearly":[192],"half":[193],"(ECE":[194],"0.04":[195],"0.07,":[197],"p<0.01),":[198],"supporting":[199],"the":[200],"practical":[201],"value":[202],"uncertainty-aware":[204],"modeling.":[206]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2026-08-08T00:00:00"}