{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7167478243","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","title":"Towards a fair and transparent early warning system for identifying students at risk of academic failure","display_name":"Towards a fair and transparent early warning system for identifying students at risk of academic failure","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-07-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7167478243","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","pdf_url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/education/articles/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2596526815","display_name":"Frontiers in Education","issn_l":"2504-284X","issn":["2504-284X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","erih-plus","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320527","host_organization_name":"Frontiers Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320527"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Frontiers Media"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in Education","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/education/articles/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686/pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5109015911","display_name":"Mohamed El Jihaoui","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6637-659X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6637-659X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210121980","display_name":"\u00c9cole Normale Sup\u00e9rieure de l'Enseignement Technique de Mohammedia","ror":"https://ror.org/035pp4j25","country_code":"MA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210121980"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I99297268","display_name":"University of Hassan II Casablanca","ror":"https://ror.org/001q4kn48","country_code":"MA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I99297268"]}],"countries":["MA"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Mohamed El Jihaoui","raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratory of Modeling and Simulation of Intelligent Industrial Systems, ENSET of Mohammedia, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratory of Modeling and Simulation of Intelligent Industrial Systems, ENSET of Mohammedia, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210121980","https://openalex.org/I99297268"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041087263","display_name":"Oum El Kheir Abra","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6958-6570","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6958-6570"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Oum El Kheir Abra","raw_affiliation_strings":["Regional Center for Education and Training Professions"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Regional Center for Education and Training Professions","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5121674829","display_name":"Khalifa Mansouri","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2242-0973","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2242-0973"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210121980","display_name":"\u00c9cole Normale Sup\u00e9rieure de l'Enseignement Technique de Mohammedia","ror":"https://ror.org/035pp4j25","country_code":"MA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210121980"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I99297268","display_name":"University of Hassan II Casablanca","ror":"https://ror.org/001q4kn48","country_code":"MA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I99297268"]}],"countries":["MA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Khalifa Mansouri","raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratory of Modeling and Simulation of Intelligent Industrial Systems, ENSET of Mohammedia, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratory of Modeling and Simulation of Intelligent Industrial Systems, ENSET of Mohammedia, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210121980","https://openalex.org/I99297268"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5109015911"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210121980","https://openalex.org/I99297268"],"apc_list":{"value":1950,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2353},"apc_paid":{"value":1950,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2353},"fwci":11.05,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":3,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98366446,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"11","issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.9932000041007996,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.9932000041007996,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10883","display_name":"Ethics and Social Impacts of AI","score":0.0007999999797903001,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11396","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3605","display_name":"Health Information Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-warning-systems","display_name":"early warning systems","score":0.9649999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/academic-failure-prediction","display_name":"student failure prediction","score":0.8870000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/at-risk-student-identification","display_name":"at-risk student identification","score":0.6380000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/algorithmic-fairness","display_name":"algorithmic fairness","score":0.9150000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/explainable-ai","display_name":"explainable AI","score":0.5690000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/precision-recall-trade-off","display_name":"precision-recall trade-off","score":0.7269999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/minority-class-imbalance","display_name":"minority class imbalance","score":0.5379999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/equalized-odds","display_name":"equalized odds","score":0.9179999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/accumulated-local-effects","display_name":"accumulated local effects","score":0.7360000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-explanations","display_name":"counterfactual explanations","score":0.8259999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/junior-high-school-students","display_name":"junior high school students","score":0.9049999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/moroccan-education-system","display_name":"Moroccan education system","score":0.3499999940395355}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5626999735832214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781067378","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17027399","display_name":"Interpretability","level":2,"score":0.5396999716758728},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779479571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4812273","display_name":"At-risk students","level":2,"score":0.47769999504089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.4726000130176544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.4092000126838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100660578","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18733","display_name":"Recall","level":2,"score":0.3693999946117401},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199521495","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181487","display_name":"Audit","level":2,"score":0.3691999912261963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776401178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12050496","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.36910000443458557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776509339","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4671161","display_name":"Academic advising","level":3,"score":0.36570000648498535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49898467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1517706","display_name":"Stratified sampling","level":2,"score":0.35920000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3547999858856201},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.3506999909877777},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.33809998631477356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145420912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q853077","display_name":"Mathematics education","level":1,"score":0.33309999108314514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.32359999418258667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3190999925136566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.31790000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126042441","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1324888","display_name":"Frame (networking)","level":2,"score":0.29840001463890076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781206393","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2748419","display_name":"Academic achievement","level":2,"score":0.2897999882698059},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.2849000096321106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778827112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q22245680","display_name":"Feature engineering","level":3,"score":0.27970001101493835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140779682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210868","display_name":"Sampling (signal processing)","level":3,"score":0.2639000117778778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777601683","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6499736","display_name":"Vocabulary","level":2,"score":0.26269999146461487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.2619999945163727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776036281","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q48769818","display_name":"Constraint (computer-aided design)","level":2,"score":0.26179999113082886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105002631","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4833645","display_name":"Subject-matter expert","level":3,"score":0.2596000134944916},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2574000060558319}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","pdf_url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/education/articles/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2596526815","display_name":"Frontiers in Education","issn_l":"2504-284X","issn":["2504-284X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","erih-plus","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320527","host_organization_name":"Frontiers Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320527"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Frontiers Media"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in Education","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:5c44c7a7a8eb428689993ac77e0b9e8d","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/5c44c7a7a8eb428689993ac77e0b9e8d","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in Education, Vol 11 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686","pdf_url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/education/articles/10.3389/feduc.2026.1878686/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2596526815","display_name":"Frontiers in Education","issn_l":"2504-284X","issn":["2504-284X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","erih-plus","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320527","host_organization_name":"Frontiers Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320527"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Frontiers Media"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Frontiers in Education","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.7578999996185303,"display_name":"Reduced inequalities","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/10"},{"score":0.6164000034332275,"display_name":"Quality education","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7167478243.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7167478243.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":41,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2118561568","https://openalex.org/W2543774860","https://openalex.org/W2786715987","https://openalex.org/W2965075997","https://openalex.org/W2969896603","https://openalex.org/W2978621305","https://openalex.org/W3035517615","https://openalex.org/W3047533667","https://openalex.org/W3084021717","https://openalex.org/W3092541244","https://openalex.org/W3118164373","https://openalex.org/W3126525890","https://openalex.org/W3157202587","https://openalex.org/W3170120958","https://openalex.org/W3214911045","https://openalex.org/W4226290207","https://openalex.org/W4280651558","https://openalex.org/W4289792687","https://openalex.org/W4293214312","https://openalex.org/W4294559022","https://openalex.org/W4312687900","https://openalex.org/W4317242585","https://openalex.org/W4323342445","https://openalex.org/W4366828697","https://openalex.org/W4381542508","https://openalex.org/W4385768144","https://openalex.org/W4386142022","https://openalex.org/W4387305045","https://openalex.org/W4396773505","https://openalex.org/W4398314221","https://openalex.org/W4400461591","https://openalex.org/W4403330453","https://openalex.org/W4404716839","https://openalex.org/W4404792830","https://openalex.org/W4408477848","https://openalex.org/W4410036261","https://openalex.org/W4410083290","https://openalex.org/W4412792624","https://openalex.org/W4413358888","https://openalex.org/W4414654067","https://openalex.org/W6949139066"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7220470814","https://openalex.org/W2908912840","https://openalex.org/W4416405472","https://openalex.org/W7214549580","https://openalex.org/W7214742325","https://openalex.org/W7203910563","https://openalex.org/W7222797431","https://openalex.org/W7214920910","https://openalex.org/W7223004523","https://openalex.org/W7212222534"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Early":[0],"warning":[1],"systems":[2],"(EWS)":[3],"help":[4],"schools":[5],"identify":[6],"students":[7,93,160],"at":[8,60,189],"risk":[9],"of":[10,82,159,238],"academic":[11,174,323],"failure":[12,39],"and":[13,31,44,51,105,136,147,183,204,241,289,302,312,318,325],"intervene":[14],"before":[15,172],"the":[16,41,112,153,173,210,254,279,298],"school":[17,92,184],"year":[18,175],"ends.":[19,176],"Machine":[20],"learning":[21],"models":[22,126],"for":[23,193,201,209],"this":[24],"task":[25],"are":[26,47,53],"commonly":[27],"evaluated":[28,303],"using":[29],"accuracy":[30],"AUC-ROC,":[32],"but":[33,249],"both":[34],"can":[35,282],"be":[36],"misleading":[37],"when":[38],"is":[40,274],"minority":[42],"outcome":[43],"student":[45,213],"characteristics":[46],"unevenly":[48],"distributed;":[49],"fairness":[50,222],"interpretability":[52],"usually":[54],"treated":[55],"as":[56,70],"separate":[57],"concerns,":[58],"if":[59],"all.":[61],"We":[62,67,109],"address":[63],"all":[64],"three":[65,190],"together.":[66],"frame":[68],"deployment":[69],"a":[71,78,119,212,247,305],"constrained":[72],"problem:":[73],"maximize":[74],"precision":[75],"subject":[76],"to":[77,94,216,219,244,286],"regulatory":[79],"recall":[80,113,243,280],"threshold":[81],"0.85":[83],"on":[84,89,304],"Fail.":[85],"Using":[86],"first-semester":[87],"data":[88],"451,852":[90],"middle":[91],"predict":[95],"end-of-year":[96],"Pass/Fail,":[97],"we":[98,186],"trained":[99],"nine":[100],"models,":[101],"applied":[102],"isotonic":[103],"calibration,":[104],"tuned":[106],"per-model":[107],"thresholds.":[108],"then":[110],"verified":[111],"constraint":[114],"under":[115],"sampling":[116],"uncertainty":[117],"with":[118,246],"stratified":[120],"bootstrap":[121],"95%":[122],"confidence":[123],"interval.":[124],"Four":[125],"met":[127],"it:":[128],"Multilayer":[129],"Perceptron":[130],"(MLP),":[131],"Logistic":[132],"Regression,":[133],"Random":[134],"Forest,":[135],"an":[137,275],"SGD":[138],"Classifier.":[139],"A":[140,221],"Borda":[141],"count":[142],"over":[143],"Recall,":[144],"Precision,":[145],"AUC-PR,":[146],"Matthews":[148],"Correlation":[149],"Coefficient":[150],"(MCC)":[151],"selected":[152],"MLP,":[154],"which":[155],"correctly":[156],"flags":[157],"86.7%":[158],"who":[161],"will":[162],"fail":[163],"(Precision":[164],"0.751,":[165],"AUC-PR":[166],"0.888,":[167],"MCC":[168],"0.730),":[169],"five":[170],"months":[171],"To":[177],"make":[178],"predictions":[179,285],"usable":[180],"by":[181],"teachers":[182],"leaders,":[185],"add":[187],"explanations":[188],"levels:":[191],"SAGE":[192],"global":[194],"feature":[195],"importance,":[196],"Accumulated":[197],"Local":[198],"Effects":[199],"(ALE)":[200],"marginal":[202],"effects,":[203],"Diverse":[205],"Counterfactual":[206],"Explanations":[207],"(DiCE)":[208],"changes":[211],"would":[214,295],"need":[215],"flip":[217],"Fail":[218],"Pass.":[220],"audit":[223],"across":[224,321],"Gender\u00d7Location":[225],"intersections":[226],"shows":[227],"subgroup":[228],"gaps":[229,240],"in":[230],"true-positive":[231],"rates;":[232],"Equal":[233],"Opportunity":[234],"post-processing":[235],"closes":[236],"most":[237],"these":[239],"raises":[242],"0.910":[245],"measurable":[248],"acceptable":[250],"precision\u2013recall":[251],"trade-off":[252],"given":[253],"policy":[255],"mandate":[256],"(precision":[257],"0.751":[258],"\u2192":[259,264],"0.702,":[260],"false-positive":[261],"rate":[262],"0.106":[263],"0.142),":[265],"while":[266],"Equalized":[267],"Odds":[268],"reduces":[269],"overall":[270],"performance.":[271],"The":[272],"result":[273],"EWS":[276],"that":[277,292],"meets":[278],"mandate,":[281],"justify":[283],"its":[284],"non-technical":[287],"users,":[288],"exposes":[290],"inequities":[291],"aggregate":[293],"metrics":[294],"hide.":[296],"However,":[297],"model":[299],"was":[300],"developed":[301],"single":[306],"cohort":[307],"from":[308],"one":[309],"Moroccan":[310],"region,":[311],"future":[313],"work":[314],"should":[315],"assess":[316],"temporal":[317],"external":[319],"generalization":[320],"cohorts,":[322],"years,":[324],"regions.":[326]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-07-07T00:00:00"}
