{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7167276201","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","title":"Coherence Across Tasks In the Development of Counterfactual Reasoning","display_name":"Coherence Across Tasks In the Development of Counterfactual Reasoning","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7167276201","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063830945","display_name":"Michelle Wong","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0871-2358","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0871-2358"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170897317","display_name":"Duke University","ror":"https://ror.org/00py81415","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michelle Wong","raw_affiliation_strings":["Duke University","Harvard University"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0871-2358","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Duke University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Harvard University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020676714","display_name":"Rosie Aboody","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7541-7746","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7541-7746"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rosie Aboody","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7541-7746","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050476432","display_name":"Eva Rafetseder","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9816-8607","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9816-8607"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eva Rafetseder","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9816-8607","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039448352","display_name":"Jonathan Frank Kominsky","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3236-4787","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3236-4787"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jonathan F. Kominsky","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3236-4787","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053594805","display_name":"Elizabeth Baraff Bonawitz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7005-9345","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7005-9345"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Elizabeth Bonawitz","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10656","display_name":"Child and Animal Learning Development","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10656","display_name":"Child and Animal Learning Development","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10730","display_name":"Language Development and Disorders","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11010","display_name":"Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-thinking","display_name":"counterfactual reasoning","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-development","display_name":"cognitive development","score":0.6669999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-childhood","display_name":"early childhood","score":0.6790000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/latent-constructs","display_name":"latent constructs","score":0.6790000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-reasoning","display_name":"causal reasoning","score":0.6970000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/theory-of-mind","display_name":"theory of mind","score":0.7910000085830688}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.98089998960495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71889745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783264","display_name":"Counterfactual conditional","level":3,"score":0.7998999953269958},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.6392999887466431},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781181686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4226068","display_name":"Coherence (philosophical gambling strategy)","level":2,"score":0.6060000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.5019999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.49630001187324524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.48019999265670776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C173801870","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q201413","display_name":"Heuristic","level":2,"score":0.4790000021457672},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4253999888896942},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199033989","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1318295","display_name":"Narrative","level":2,"score":0.3977999985218048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780801425","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164392","display_name":"Construct (python library)","level":2,"score":0.38429999351501465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115086926","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17004651","display_name":"Causal reasoning","level":3,"score":0.3837999999523163},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13662910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q193139","display_name":"Trajectory","level":2,"score":0.34599998593330383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127705205","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5748245","display_name":"Heuristics","level":2,"score":0.32710000872612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.3061000108718872},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776436953","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5163215","display_name":"Consistency (knowledge bases)","level":2,"score":0.2897000014781952},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.2720000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188147891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q147638","display_name":"Cognitive science","level":1,"score":0.26109999418258667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140441792","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2910672","display_name":"Cognitive development","level":3,"score":0.2540999948978424},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.25279998779296875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C511192102","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5156948","display_name":"Comprehension","level":2,"score":0.2524999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176777502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4774623","display_name":"Anticipation (artificial intelligence)","level":2,"score":0.25200000405311584}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:openresearch.ceu.edu:20.500.14018/29212","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/29212","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401981","display_name":"Open Research (Auckland University of Technology)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I39854758","host_organization_name":"Auckland University of Technology","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39854758"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Working paper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:322152fe-0efd-40d2-bfd3-c8b1997d4093","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/rckpq","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401687","display_name":"PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rckpq_v2","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[{"display_name":"Observational Study","id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/observational-study"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2980532851","https://openalex.org/W2102109127","https://openalex.org/W2092978250","https://openalex.org/W7131847664","https://openalex.org/W2153589378","https://openalex.org/W2506251294","https://openalex.org/W2995038211","https://openalex.org/W2899864319","https://openalex.org/W7161231785","https://openalex.org/W2124738104"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Counterfactual":[0],"reasoning":[1,66,75,175],"--":[2,18],"the":[3,62,92,152],"ability":[4,48],"to":[5,21,99],"consider":[6],"what":[7,15,51],"could,":[8],"would,":[9],"or":[10],"should":[11],"have":[12],"happened":[13],"alongside":[14],"actually":[16],"occurred":[17],"is":[19,54],"foundational":[20],"causal":[22],"understanding,":[23],"learning":[24],"from":[25],"experience,":[26],"and":[27,50,79,114,158,176],"making":[28],"sense":[29],"of":[30,64,160],"others\u2019":[31],"minds.":[32],"While":[33],"this":[34,47],"skill":[35],"emerges":[36],"in":[37,82],"early":[38,98],"childhood,":[39],"its":[40],"developmental":[41],"trajectory":[42],"remains":[43],"debated.":[44],"How":[45],"does":[46],"develop":[49],"other":[52,153],"constructs":[53],"it":[55],"related":[56],"to?":[57],"To":[58],"investigate,":[59],"we":[60],"explored":[61],"development":[63],"counterfactual":[65,74,131,154,174],"through":[67],"a":[68,128,170,178],"14-item":[69],"unmoderated":[70],"online":[71],"battery":[72],"measuring":[73],"across":[76,151],"narrative,":[77],"physical,":[78],"causal-machine":[80],"domains":[81,124],"320":[83],"children":[84,134],"(ages":[85],"3-7).":[86],"We":[87],"found":[88],"steady":[89],"improvement":[90],"on":[91,116,138],"tasks,":[93,110,119],"with":[94],"performance":[95,115],"improving":[96],"over":[97],"middle":[100],"childhood.":[101],"Performance":[102],"was":[103],"also":[104],"positively":[105],"correlated":[106],"within":[107],"all":[108,122],"three":[109,123],"controlling":[111],"for":[112,169,181],"age":[113],"non-counterfactual":[117],"cognitive":[118],"suggesting":[120],"that":[121,141],"were":[125],"tapping":[126],"into":[127],"similar":[129],"underlying":[130,173],"ability.":[132],"Additionally,":[133],"who":[135],"responded":[136],"correctly":[137],"narrative":[139],"counterfactuals":[140],"could":[142],"not":[143],"be":[144],"solved":[145],"using":[146],"heuristic":[147],"shortcuts":[148],"performed":[149],"better":[150],"tasks":[155,162],"(Study":[156,163],"1)":[157],"Theory":[159],"Mind":[161],"2).":[164],"These":[165],"findings":[166],"provide":[167],"evidence":[168],"latent":[171],"construct":[172],"introduce":[177],"validated":[179],"tool":[180],"future":[182],"research.":[183]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2026-07-04T00:00:00"}