{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7163592003","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","title":"SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY DEMAND OF A BASE TRANSCEIVER STATION","display_name":"SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY DEMAND OF A BASE TRANSCEIVER STATION","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7163592003","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v45i2.2"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","pdf_url":"https://nijotech.com/index.php/nijotech/article/download/4923/2293","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764753315","display_name":"Nigerian Journal of Technology","issn_l":"0331-8443","issn":["0331-8443","2467-8821"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","jpps-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311022","host_organization_name":"University of Nigeria","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311022"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Nigeria"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Nigerian Journal of Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://nijotech.com/index.php/nijotech/article/download/4923/2293","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5019693162","display_name":"Tolulope Christiana Erinosho","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1357-337X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1357-337X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I18045400","display_name":"Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta","ror":"https://ror.org/050s1zm26","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I18045400"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"TOLULOPE ERINOSHO","raw_affiliation_strings":["1Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, NIGERIA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"1Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, NIGERIA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I18045400"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5052470367","display_name":"Kamoli Akinwale Amusa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9436-2349","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9436-2349"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I18045400","display_name":"Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta","ror":"https://ror.org/050s1zm26","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I18045400"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"K. A. Amusa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, NIGERIA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, NIGERIA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I18045400"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5146595807","display_name":"Abdultaofeek","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405255726","display_name":"Summit University, Offa","ror":"https://ror.org/03bhs4y95","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405255726"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Abdultaofeek","raw_affiliation_strings":["IASRG, Summit University, Offa 250101, Kwara State, Nigeria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"IASRG, Summit University, Offa 250101, Kwara State, Nigeria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405255726"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5118646954","display_name":"FATAI KAZEEM","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I18045400","display_name":"Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta","ror":"https://ror.org/050s1zm26","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I18045400"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fatai Kazeem","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, NIGERIA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, NIGERIA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I18045400"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137859670","display_name":"I. P. Okokpujie","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I29787537","display_name":"Afe Babalola University","ror":"https://ror.org/03rsm0k65","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I29787537"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Imhade Okokpujie","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering, Afe Babalola University, Ado Ekiti, 360001, NIGERIA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering, Afe Babalola University, Ado Ekiti, 360001, NIGERIA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I29787537"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":185,"currency":"USD","value_usd":185},"apc_paid":{"value":185,"currency":"USD","value_usd":185},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.26959026,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"45","issue":"2","first_page":"254","last_page":"266"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9829000234603882,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9829000234603882,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10603","display_name":"Smart Grid Energy Management","score":0.008299999870359898,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10121","display_name":"Building Energy and Comfort Optimization","score":0.0008999999845400453,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/base-transceiver-station","display_name":"base transceiver station","score":0.7960000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sarima-model","display_name":"SARIMA","score":0.9039999842643738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mobile-communication-infrastructure","display_name":"mobile communication infrastructure","score":0.5350000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/energy-management","display_name":"energy management","score":0.531000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hybrid-renewable-energy-systems","display_name":"hybrid renewable energy systems","score":0.699999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/homer-pro","display_name":"HOMER Pro","score":0.75},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/levelized-cost-of-electricity","display_name":"levelized cost of electricity","score":0.8629999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/off-grid-power-supply","display_name":"off-grid power supply","score":0.6740000247955322}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150217764","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6803607","display_name":"Mean absolute percentage error","level":3,"score":0.6822999715805054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139945424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1940696","display_name":"Mean squared error","level":2,"score":0.6712999939918518},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.5763000249862671},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188573790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12705","display_name":"Renewable energy","level":2,"score":0.5733000040054321},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.4189999997615814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98576551","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q841798","display_name":"Electric potential energy","level":3,"score":0.40130001306533813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77715397","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q931447","display_name":"Electrical load","level":3,"score":0.39430001378059387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44154836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45045","display_name":"Simulation","level":1,"score":0.39070001244544983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.38749998807907104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175706884","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130194","display_name":"Moving average","level":2,"score":0.3612000048160553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73916439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837718","display_name":"Energy storage","level":3,"score":0.349700003862381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182299520","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1289588","display_name":"Total cost","level":2,"score":0.33399999141693115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C68649174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1379116","display_name":"Base station","level":2,"score":0.323199987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.31209999322891235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C541104983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q40015","display_name":"Solar energy","level":2,"score":0.3000999987125397},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122383733","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865920","display_name":"Approximation error","level":2,"score":0.28679999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C7817414","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779504","display_name":"Energy management","level":3,"score":0.28380000591278076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C171146098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q124192","display_name":"Automotive engineering","level":1,"score":0.2833000123500824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186370098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q442787","display_name":"Energy (signal processing)","level":2,"score":0.2831999957561493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C40293303","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q27137","display_name":"Electric power","level":3,"score":0.2824999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777423268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3663116","display_name":"Energy balance","level":2,"score":0.2800000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193809577","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409300","display_name":"Demand forecasting","level":2,"score":0.27810001373291016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C423512","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q383973","display_name":"Electricity generation","level":3,"score":0.27239999175071716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89227174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2388981","display_name":"Electric power system","level":3,"score":0.26969999074935913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780165032","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16869822","display_name":"Energy consumption","level":2,"score":0.26330000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.262800008058548},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2982719155","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25584060","display_name":"Energy source","level":3,"score":0.26159998774528503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2742236","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q924713","display_name":"Efficient energy use","level":2,"score":0.259799987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.2515999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780958618","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q945621","display_name":"Average cost","level":2,"score":0.2502000033855438}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","pdf_url":"https://nijotech.com/index.php/nijotech/article/download/4923/2293","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764753315","display_name":"Nigerian Journal of Technology","issn_l":"0331-8443","issn":["0331-8443","2467-8821"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","jpps-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311022","host_organization_name":"University of Nigeria","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311022"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Nigeria"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Nigerian Journal of Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v45i2.2","pdf_url":"https://nijotech.com/index.php/nijotech/article/download/4923/2293","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764753315","display_name":"Nigerian Journal of Technology","issn_l":"0331-8443","issn":["0331-8443","2467-8821"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","jpps-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311022","host_organization_name":"University of Nigeria","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311022"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Nigeria"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Nigerian Journal of Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Affordable and clean energy","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","score":1.0},{"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","score":1.0},{"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.9786999821662903}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7163592003.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7163592003.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":34,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1711412747","https://openalex.org/W2202089267","https://openalex.org/W2280633162","https://openalex.org/W2487967714","https://openalex.org/W2775155156","https://openalex.org/W2929551289","https://openalex.org/W2961951330","https://openalex.org/W2988606691","https://openalex.org/W3041906801","https://openalex.org/W3046786323","https://openalex.org/W3207629440","https://openalex.org/W4205343597","https://openalex.org/W4224232634","https://openalex.org/W4281728823","https://openalex.org/W4290052854","https://openalex.org/W4308326602","https://openalex.org/W4312561791","https://openalex.org/W4316814327","https://openalex.org/W4319159759","https://openalex.org/W4379537561","https://openalex.org/W4387822394","https://openalex.org/W4389056058","https://openalex.org/W4391047003","https://openalex.org/W4399203344","https://openalex.org/W4401907290","https://openalex.org/W4402864578","https://openalex.org/W4403732300","https://openalex.org/W4406787547","https://openalex.org/W4408938517","https://openalex.org/W4410733359","https://openalex.org/W4412509094","https://openalex.org/W4413435650","https://openalex.org/W4415707500","https://openalex.org/W4416718411"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4410733359","https://openalex.org/W4401070014","https://openalex.org/W4402711234","https://openalex.org/W4398786079","https://openalex.org/W2147740151","https://openalex.org/W4411173288","https://openalex.org/W7222977189","https://openalex.org/W2106692897","https://openalex.org/W4413277615","https://openalex.org/W2939223697"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Efficient":[0],"energy":[1,30,35,56,162,174,178],"management":[2],"is":[3],"essential":[4],"for":[5,33,155],"the":[6,81,92,115,125,133,156,160],"continuous":[7],"operation":[8],"of":[9,50,67,91,139,215,218,224],"Base":[10],"Transceiver":[11],"Stations":[12],"(BTS),":[13],"which":[14],"are":[15],"critical":[16],"to":[17,25,124,148,169],"mobile":[18],"communication":[19],"infrastructure.":[20],"Power":[21],"shortages":[22],"can":[23],"lead":[24],"service":[26],"disruptions,":[27],"necessitating":[28],"accurate":[29],"demand":[31],"forecasting":[32,238],"optimal":[34,188],"planning.":[36],"This":[37],"study":[38],"developed":[39],"a":[40,59,119,180,230],"dual":[41],"SARIMA":[42,74,237],"models":[43],"using":[44,96],"36":[45],"months":[46],"(May":[47],"2021\u2013April":[48],"2024)":[49],"field-measured":[51],"hourly":[52,83],"and":[53,106,143,151,179,201,226],"daily":[54,72],"electrical":[55],"data":[57],"from":[58],"BTS":[60,242],"in":[61,137],"Abeokuta,":[62],"Nigeria":[63],"with":[64,245],"average":[65],"load":[66,243],"4.2":[68],"kW.":[69],"The":[70,89],"long-term":[71,116,157],"model":[73,84,93],"(0,1,0)(1,0,1)\u2087":[75],"captures":[76],"weekly":[77],"traffic":[78],"seasonality,":[79],"while":[80],"short-term":[82,126,134],"SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,2)\u2082\u2084":[85],"addresses":[86],"diurnal":[87],"peaks.":[88],"performance":[90],"was":[94,167],"evaluated":[95],"Mean":[97,102,108],"Absolute":[98],"Percentage":[99],"Error":[100,104,110],"(MAPE),":[101],"Squared":[103,109],"(MSE),":[105],"Root":[107],"(RMSE).":[111],"Results":[112,184],"showed":[113],"that":[114],"approach":[117,127,135],"had":[118],"lower":[120],"MAPE":[121],"(7.67%)":[122],"compared":[123,147],"(13.32%),":[128],"indicating":[129],"better":[130],"accuracy.":[131],"However,":[132],"outperformed":[136],"terms":[138],"RMSE":[140],"(0.63":[141],"kW)":[142],"MSE":[144],"(0.40":[145],"kW),":[146],"0.78":[149],"kW":[150,192,197],"0.62":[152],"kW,":[153],"respectively,":[154],"approach.":[158],"Utilizing":[159],"forecasted":[161],"demand,":[163],"HOMER":[164],"Pro":[165],"software":[166],"employed":[168],"design":[170],"an":[171,186],"optimized":[172],"hybrid":[173],"system":[175],"integrating":[176],"solar":[177],"biogas":[181,199],"co-fired":[182],"generator.":[183],"yielded":[185],"economically":[187],"solar-biogas-battery":[189],"configuration:":[190],"40":[191],"Canadian":[193],"Solar":[194],"PV,":[195],"16":[196],"CAT":[198],"generator,":[200],"32.8":[202],"kWh":[203],"LiFePO\u2084":[204],"storage":[205],"delivering":[206],"zero":[207],"unmet":[208],"loads.":[209],"Key":[210],"metrics":[211],"include":[212],"Levelized":[213],"Cost":[214,222],"Energy":[216],"(COE)":[217],"$0.01666/kWh,":[219],"Net":[220],"Present":[221],"(NPC)":[223],"$15,000,":[225],"8-year":[227],"payback,":[228],"representing":[229],"75%":[231],"cost":[232],"reduction":[233],"versus":[234],"diesel-only":[235],"alternatives.":[236],"thus":[239],"bridges":[240],"precise":[241],"prediction":[244],"cost-effective":[246],"renewable":[247],"sizing,":[248],"enabling":[249],"sustainable":[250],"telecom":[251],"expansion":[252],"across":[253],"off-grid":[254],"regions.":[255]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2026-06-05T00:00:00"}