{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7148632004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","title":"A foundation model for multivariate time series forecasting","display_name":"A foundation model for multivariate time series forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-04-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7148632004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-9096522/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-9096522/latest.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004795231","display_name":"Abdul Fatir Ansari","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0263-9142","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0263-9142"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Abdul Fatir Ansari","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059880955","display_name":"Oleksandr Shchur","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7627-5295","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7627-5295","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4027-161X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Oleksandr Shchur","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114618483","display_name":"Jaris K\u00fcken","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161046081","display_name":"University of Freiburg","ror":"https://ror.org/0245cg223","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161046081"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jaris K\u00fcken","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Freiburg"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Freiburg","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161046081"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123744760","display_name":"Andreas Auer","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andreas Auer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041872681","display_name":"Boran Han","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9567-7062","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9567-7062"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Boran Han","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159983241","display_name":"Pedro Mercado","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pedro Mercado","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020003974","display_name":"Syama Sundar Rangapuram","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9357-0154","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9357-0154"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Syama Sundar Rangapuram","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045433598","display_name":"Huibin Shen","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Huibin Shen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028410511","display_name":"Lorenzo Stella","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8304-7327","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8304-7327"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lorenzo Stella","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5132801336","display_name":"Xiyuan Zhang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xiyuan Zhang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032798300","display_name":"Mononito Goswami","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4117-5558","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4117-5558"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mononito Goswami","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101773525","display_name":"Shubham Kapoor","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5036-5858","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5036-5858"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shubham Kapoor","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077131548","display_name":"Danielle C. Maddix","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2317-4068","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2317-4068"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Danielle Robinson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2317-4068","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159891020","display_name":"Pablo Guerron","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pablo Guerron","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5119968332","display_name":"Florian Saupe","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Florian Saupe","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071721504","display_name":"Markus Reichstein","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5736-1112","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5736-1112"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Markus Reichstein","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063991175","display_name":"Tony Hu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tony Hu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5132819024","display_name":"Junming Yin","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Junming Yin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011601027","display_name":"Nick Erickson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8789-0628","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8789-0628"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nick Erickson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113900824","display_name":"P. Desai","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Prateek Mutalik Desai","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100655167","display_name":"Hao Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1089-9828","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1089-9828","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1444-2657"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hao Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006581225","display_name":"Huzefa Rangwala","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0435-0035","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0435-0035"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Huzefa Rangwala","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082384108","display_name":"George Karypis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2753-1437","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2753-1437"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"George Karypis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5146810575","display_name":"Yuyang Wang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yuyang Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034900644","display_name":"Michael Bohlke\u2010Schneider","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1311688040","display_name":"Amazon (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/04mv4n011","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael Bohlke-Schneider","raw_affiliation_strings":["Amazon Web Services"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Amazon Web Services","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1311688040"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.9916999936103821,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.9916999936103821,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.006599999964237213,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11344","display_name":"Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multivariate-time-series-forecasting","display_name":"multivariate time series forecasting","score":0.9279999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-foundation-models","display_name":"time series foundation models","score":0.9480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/zero-shot-forecasting","display_name":"zero-shot forecasting","score":0.9760000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"probabilistic forecasting","score":0.8349999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"uncertainty quantification","score":0.9829999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covariate-interactions","display_name":"covariate interactions","score":0.6869999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/domain-generalization","display_name":"domain generalization","score":0.597000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pretraining","display_name":"pre-training","score":0.7289999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease-forecasting","display_name":"infectious disease forecasting","score":0.7960000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomic-forecasting","display_name":"macroeconomic forecasting","score":0.9150000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/streamflow-simulation","display_name":"streamflow simulation","score":0.9549999833106995}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6467000246047974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.607200026512146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.593999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.5920000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.5917999744415283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161584116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1952580","display_name":"Multivariate statistics","level":2,"score":0.5763999819755554},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.5458999872207642},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5098999738693237},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.46380001306533813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136197465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1729295","display_name":"Variety (cybernetics)","level":2,"score":0.43860000371932983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780966255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5474306","display_name":"Foundation (evidence)","level":2,"score":0.4350999891757965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.4214000105857849},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120954023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127277","display_name":"Consensus forecast","level":2,"score":0.35830000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.35600000619888306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.35260000824928284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3513000011444092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.34360000491142273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93959086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888345","display_name":"Model selection","level":2,"score":0.3197999894618988},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.3190999925136566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779714256","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25305062","display_name":"Multiple Models","level":2,"score":0.305400013923645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45804977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239673","display_name":"Predictive modelling","level":2,"score":0.296999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119693030","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2180497","display_name":"Economic model","level":2,"score":0.2809999883174896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80368990","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3046459","display_name":"Earth system science","level":2,"score":0.27219998836517334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76969082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q486902","display_name":"Mathematical model","level":2,"score":0.2678000032901764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9652623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190109","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.2542000114917755}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-9096522/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096522/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-9096522/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7148632004.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7148632004.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4403577807","https://openalex.org/W7171524200","https://openalex.org/W7131625509","https://openalex.org/W7221197311","https://openalex.org/W4392781393","https://openalex.org/W4387635581","https://openalex.org/W7165427184","https://openalex.org/W4391799200","https://openalex.org/W7153146014","https://openalex.org/W7207894642"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Accurate":[1],"forecasting":[2,27,92,249,252],"with":[3],"uncertainty":[4],"quantification":[5],"is":[6,157],"critical":[7],"in":[8,107,167,195],"a":[9,87,172,227,242,245],"variety":[10],"of":[11,55],"scientific":[12,108,197,255],"applications":[13],"ranging":[14],"from":[15,118,247],"epidemiology":[16],"and":[17,22,34,51,72,80,101,121,148,177,185,207,256],"economics":[18],"to":[19,31,47,144,250],"energy":[20],"systems":[21,253],"earth":[23],"sciences.":[24],"Yet":[25],"most":[26],"models":[28,44,94],"still":[29],"need":[30],"be":[32],"developed":[33,219],"trained":[35],"separately":[36],"for":[37,90,163,220],"each":[38,68,221],"domain-specific":[39],"dataset.":[40],"Time":[41],"series":[42,70,79,100,116,166],"foundation":[43,88,243],"(TSFMs)":[45],"aim":[46],"remove":[48],"this":[49],"limitation":[50],"enable":[52],"the":[53,56,95,145,181,212],"application":[54],"same":[57],"model":[58,75,89,111,213,230],"across":[59,235,254],"domains":[60],"through":[61],"large-scale":[62],"pretraining.":[63],"However,":[64],"existing":[65],"TSFMs":[66],"treat":[67],"time":[69,78,99,115,165],"independently":[71],"therefore":[73],"cannot":[74],"interactions":[76,96],"among":[77,114],"external":[81],"drivers.":[82],"Here,":[83],"we":[84,191],"introduce":[85],"Chronos-2,":[86],"zero-shot":[91],"that":[93,226],"between":[97],"multivariate":[98],"heterogeneous":[102],"covariates,":[103],"which":[104],"commonly":[105],"arise":[106],"applications.":[109],"The":[110],"infers":[112],"relationships":[113],"directly":[117],"historical":[119],"context":[120],"generates":[122],"probabilistic":[123,186],"forecasts":[124,162],"without":[125],"task-specific":[126,183,248],"treatment.":[127],"Across":[128],"various":[129],"benchmarks,":[130],"Chronos-2":[131,156],"achieves":[132],"state-of-the-art":[133],"accuracy":[134],"by":[135,139,152],"improving":[136],"skill":[137],"scores":[138],"5.2":[140],"percentage":[141,154],"points":[142],"relative":[143],"strongest":[146],"baselines":[147],"increasing":[149],"win":[150],"rates":[151],"10":[153],"points.":[155],"also":[158],"computationally":[159],"efficient,":[160],"generating":[161],"100":[164],"under":[168],"one":[169],"second":[170],"on":[171],"single":[173,228],"mid-range":[174],"GPU,":[175],"50x":[176],"1000x":[178],"faster":[179],"than":[180],"best":[182],"point":[184],"forecasters,":[187],"respectively.":[188],"In":[189],"addition,":[190],"demonstrate":[192],"its":[193],"effectiveness":[194],"diverse":[196],"settings":[198],"\u2014":[199,210],"including":[200],"infectious-disease":[201],"forecasting,":[202],"macroeconomic":[203],"modeling,":[204],"carbon-flux":[205],"prediction,":[206],"runoff":[208],"simulation":[209],"where":[211],"matches":[214],"or":[215],"surpasses":[216],"specialized":[217],"methods":[218],"domain.":[222],"These":[223],"results":[224],"show":[225],"pretrained":[229],"can":[231],"capture":[232],"structure":[233],"shared":[234],"temporal":[236],"systems.":[237],"Importantly,":[238],"our":[239],"work":[240],"lays":[241],"toward":[244],"transition":[246],"generalist":[251],"industrial":[257],"domains.":[258]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-01T11:40:01.658920","created_date":"2026-04-03T00:00:00"}