{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7135384635","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","title":"The Impact of Shortage Risk Tolerance on a Future European Net-Zero Electricity System \u2013 A Multi-Objective Optimisation Approach","display_name":"The Impact of Shortage Risk Tolerance on a Future European Net-Zero Electricity System \u2013 A Multi-Objective Optimisation Approach","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-14","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7135384635","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306508951","display_name":"EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"conference-abstract","is_traditional":false,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087977069","display_name":"David Fordham","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6305-8638","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6305-8638"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184942183","display_name":"University of Oslo","ror":"https://ror.org/01xtthb56","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"David Fordham","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Technology Systems, Norway (davidac@uio.no)"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6305-8638","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Technology Systems, Norway (davidac@uio.no)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085873439","display_name":"Tobias Verheugen Hvidsten","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6470-4798","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6470-4798"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184942183","display_name":"University of Oslo","ror":"https://ror.org/01xtthb56","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Tobias Verheugen Hvidsten","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Technology Systems, Norway (davidac@uio.no)"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6470-4798","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Technology Systems, Norway (davidac@uio.no)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075169299","display_name":"Guillermo Valenzuela-Venegas","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2067-7257","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2067-7257"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184942183","display_name":"University of Oslo","ror":"https://ror.org/01xtthb56","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Guillermo Valenzuela","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Technology Systems, Norway (davidac@uio.no)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Technology Systems, Norway (davidac@uio.no)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020070966","display_name":"Marianne Zeyringer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1756-1878","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1756-1878"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184942183","display_name":"University of Oslo","ror":"https://ror.org/01xtthb56","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marianne Zeyringer","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Technology Systems, Norway (davidac@uio.no)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Technology Systems, Norway (davidac@uio.no)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5085873439","https://openalex.org/A5087977069"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11185","display_name":"Integrated Energy Systems Optimization","score":0.9721999764442444,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11185","display_name":"Integrated Energy Systems Optimization","score":0.9721999764442444,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10424","display_name":"Electric Power System Optimization","score":0.027699999511241913,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10454","display_name":"Optimal Power Flow Distribution","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/power-system-reliability","display_name":"power system reliability","score":0.699999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/renewable-energy-integration","display_name":"renewable energy integration","score":0.7570000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/capacity-expansion-planning","display_name":"capacity expansion planning","score":0.7710000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multi-objective-optimization","display_name":"multi-objective optimization","score":0.8970000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pareto-front","display_name":"Pareto front","score":0.6880000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-reliability-trade-off","display_name":"cost-reliability trade-off","score":0.8349999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/energy-storage-investment","display_name":"energy storage investment","score":0.6119999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transmission-investment","display_name":"transmission investment","score":0.7379999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/european-power-system","display_name":"European power system","score":0.6510000228881836}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.5616999864578247},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27548731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q88272","display_name":"Investment (military)","level":3,"score":0.5185999870300293},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.5171999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206658404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12725","display_name":"Electricity","level":2,"score":0.5060999989509583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134560507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q753291","display_name":"Environmental economics","level":1,"score":0.4812000095844269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194051981","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1337691","display_name":"Economic shortage","level":3,"score":0.43540000915527344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188573790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12705","display_name":"Renewable energy","level":2,"score":0.4334000051021576},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184773241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q387400","display_name":"Mains electricity","level":3,"score":0.43290001153945923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779268580","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3447087","display_name":"Allowance (engineering)","level":2,"score":0.4205000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137635306","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182667","display_name":"Pareto principle","level":2,"score":0.4187999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778865806","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6060850","display_name":"Investment decisions","level":3,"score":0.40799999237060547},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89227174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2388981","display_name":"Electric power system","level":3,"score":0.40059998631477356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.39820000529289246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.3887999951839447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C423512","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q383973","display_name":"Electricity generation","level":3,"score":0.36550000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187029079","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q958679","display_name":"Cognitive reframing","level":2,"score":0.36010000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.34299999475479126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C131046424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1805337","display_name":"Energy policy","level":3,"score":0.323199987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778834244","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5377181","display_name":"Energy planning","level":3,"score":0.32249999046325684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.29910001158714294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12174686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058438","display_name":"Risk assessment","level":2,"score":0.2971000075340271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777890234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q795757","display_name":"Energy transition","level":4,"score":0.2953000068664551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18465707","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5001797","display_name":"Business system planning","level":2,"score":0.2912999987602234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.28870001435279846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992009872","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q104493","display_name":"Economic risk","level":2,"score":0.28529998660087585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992120494","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q27137","display_name":"Electricity system","level":4,"score":0.27959999442100525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780789856","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915732","display_name":"Variable renewable energy","level":4,"score":0.27880001068115234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21547014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1423657","display_name":"Operations management","level":1,"score":0.26899999380111694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.263700008392334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32896092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189447","display_name":"Risk management","level":2,"score":0.2563999891281128}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306508951","display_name":"EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306508951","display_name":"EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","display_name":"Affordable and clean energy","score":0.9853000044822693},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":0.9786999821662903},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure","score":0.8970999717712402}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7128300503","https://openalex.org/W4230062184","https://openalex.org/W4417065409","https://openalex.org/W7171921285","https://openalex.org/W2995619520","https://openalex.org/W7155193552","https://openalex.org/W3160906727","https://openalex.org/W3204673716","https://openalex.org/W7167239773","https://openalex.org/W6931083354"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Energy":[0],"system":[1,38,109,123,156],"models":[2,45],"are":[3,166],"crucial":[4],"tools":[5],"for":[6,36,103,173],"planning":[7,69],"the":[8,16,26,76,131,141,149],"transition":[9],"to":[10,52,65,78,88,169,176,182],"low-carbon":[11],"power":[12,155],"systems,":[13],"particularly":[14],"in":[15,106],"context":[17],"of":[18,31,41,151],"increasing":[19],"renewable":[20],"energy":[21,126],"sources":[22],"(RES)":[23],"integration.":[24],"However,":[25],"inherent":[27],"variability":[28],"and":[29,84,125,135,144,171,186],"uncertainty":[30],"RES":[32,159],"generation":[33],"pose":[34],"challenges":[35],"ensuring":[37],"reliability.":[39],"As":[40],"today,":[42],"capacity":[43,87],"expansion":[44],"often":[46],"enforce":[47],"strict":[48],"reliability":[49,136],"constraints,":[50],"leading":[51,64],"conservative":[53],"investment":[54,80],"decisions":[55,81,179],"that":[56,119],"may":[57],"not":[58],"reflect":[59],"real-world":[60],"risk":[61,72],"tolerances,":[62],"ultimately":[63],"overdimensioned":[66],"systems.":[67],"Reframing":[68],"around":[70],"acceptable":[71],"can":[73],"therefore":[74],"have":[75],"potential":[77],"shift":[79],"from":[82],"expensive":[83],"rarely":[85],"used":[86],"more":[89],"valuable":[90],"assets,":[91],"such":[92],"as":[93],"targeted":[94],"storage":[95],"or":[96],"transmission.":[97],"Here,":[98],"we":[99],"implement":[100],"an":[101,107],"allowance":[102],"shortage":[104,127],"tolerance":[105],"electricity":[108],"model":[110],"at":[111],"NUTS2":[112],"resolution,":[113],"using":[114],"a":[115,152],"multi-objective":[116],"optimisation":[117],"approach":[118],"minimises":[120],"both":[121],"total":[122],"cost":[124,134],"risk.":[128],"We":[129],"explore":[130],"trade-offs":[132],"between":[133],"by":[137],"analysing":[138],"solutions":[139],"on":[140,180],"Pareto":[142],"front,":[143],"how":[145,181],"they":[146],"could":[147],"influence":[148],"design":[150],"future":[153],"European":[154],"with":[157],"high":[158],"penetration.":[160],"Our":[161],"findings":[162],"expose":[163],"which":[164],"regions":[165],"most":[167],"vulnerable":[168],"shortages,":[170],"allow":[172],"policy":[174],"makers":[175],"make":[177],"informed":[178],"balance":[183],"decarbonization,":[184],"affordability,":[185],"local":[187],"robustness.":[188]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-03-15T00:00:00"}
