{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7130516887","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","title":"Using seasonal forecasts to enhance our understanding of extreme wind and precipitation impacts from extratropical cyclones","display_name":"Using seasonal forecasts to enhance our understanding of extreme wind and precipitation impacts from extratropical cyclones","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-02-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7130516887","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","pdf_url":"https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/827/2026/nhess-26-827-2026.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S70708404","display_name":"Natural hazards and earth system sciences","issn_l":"1561-8633","issn":["1561-8633","1684-9981"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-c","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/827/2026/nhess-26-827-2026.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030651928","display_name":"Jacob Maddison","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6990-0742","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6990-0742"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I23923803","display_name":"University of Exeter","ror":"https://ror.org/03yghzc09","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jacob William Maddison","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6990-0742","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5005780661","display_name":"Jennifer L. Catto","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8662-1398","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8662-1398"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I23923803","display_name":"University of Exeter","ror":"https://ror.org/03yghzc09","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jennifer Louise Catto","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5157805953","display_name":"Sandra Hansen","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sandra Hansen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Guy Carpenter & Company Limited, London, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Guy Carpenter & Company Limited, London, UK","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081602739","display_name":"Ching Ho Justin Ng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2582-9459","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2582-9459"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ching Ho Justin Ng","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021272522","display_name":"Stefan Siegert","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8938-2823","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8938-2823"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I23923803","display_name":"University of Exeter","ror":"https://ror.org/03yghzc09","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Stefan Siegert","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":1440,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":1553},"apc_paid":{"value":1440,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":1553},"fwci":3.3893,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.87413988,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"26","issue":"2","first_page":"827","last_page":"844"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.7529000043869019,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.7529000043869019,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.1485999971628189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.07429999858140945,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extratropical-cyclones","display_name":"extratropical cyclones","score":0.996999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-forecasting","display_name":"seasonal forecasting","score":0.6000000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-winds","display_name":"extreme wind events","score":0.8299999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-precipitation","display_name":"heavy rainfall","score":0.8859999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/insured-losses","display_name":"insured losses","score":0.7799999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/flood-risk","display_name":"flood risk","score":0.6980000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/north-atlantic-oscillation","display_name":"North Atlantic Oscillation","score":0.7799999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/return-periods","display_name":"return periods","score":0.5260000228881836}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72319357","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1063457","display_name":"Extratropical cyclone","level":2,"score":0.9174000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.7318999767303467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.7056999802589417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.6650000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.5608000159263611},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.46369999647140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.4555000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17093552","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1137345","display_name":"North Atlantic oscillation","level":2,"score":0.45410001277923584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181654704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q140588","display_name":"Typhoon","level":2,"score":0.44920000433921814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163379243","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2551132","display_name":"Landfall","level":3,"score":0.42419999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186594467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1429176","display_name":"Flooding (psychology)","level":2,"score":0.40560001134872437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140178040","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18402512","display_name":"Quantitative precipitation forecast","level":3,"score":0.384799987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166970017","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q476118","display_name":"Reinsurance","level":2,"score":0.3668999969959259},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205537798","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Extreme weather","level":3,"score":0.3513000011444092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161067210","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1464943","display_name":"Wind speed","level":2,"score":0.3456000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29141058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8092","display_name":"Tropical cyclone","level":2,"score":0.3398999869823456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196937547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q75079023","display_name":"Winter storm","level":3,"score":0.30300000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.28299999237060547},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986432223","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5449740","display_name":"Risk model","level":2,"score":0.2818000018596649},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777864850","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79598","display_name":"Cyclone (programming language)","level":3,"score":0.27379998564720154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777351977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4579588","display_name":"Storm track","level":3,"score":0.2702000141143799},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.2678000032901764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91586092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q757520","display_name":"Atmospheric sciences","level":1,"score":0.26159998774528503}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","pdf_url":"https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/827/2026/nhess-26-827-2026.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S70708404","display_name":"Natural hazards and earth system sciences","issn_l":"1561-8633","issn":["1561-8633","1684-9981"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-c","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.5194/egusphere-2025-2138","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2138","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2138","pdf_url":"https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2138/egusphere-2025-2138.pdf","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026","pdf_url":"https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/827/2026/nhess-26-827-2026.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S70708404","display_name":"Natural hazards and earth system sciences","issn_l":"1561-8633","issn":["1561-8633","1684-9981"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-c","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9786999821662903,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.5895159244537354,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7130516887.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7130516887.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":68,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1480551390","https://openalex.org/W1737716680","https://openalex.org/W1912340952","https://openalex.org/W1973848245","https://openalex.org/W1978815659","https://openalex.org/W1982798987","https://openalex.org/W1997294456","https://openalex.org/W2019206174","https://openalex.org/W2026113960","https://openalex.org/W2032112606","https://openalex.org/W2032192158","https://openalex.org/W2053531474","https://openalex.org/W2065112092","https://openalex.org/W2065764894","https://openalex.org/W2084439524","https://openalex.org/W2087655325","https://openalex.org/W2090471968","https://openalex.org/W2107088244","https://openalex.org/W2113791303","https://openalex.org/W2131052750","https://openalex.org/W2131878767","https://openalex.org/W2144668858","https://openalex.org/W2147297523","https://openalex.org/W2158197749","https://openalex.org/W2161334703","https://openalex.org/W2176412098","https://openalex.org/W2201771109","https://openalex.org/W2258178957","https://openalex.org/W2324538044","https://openalex.org/W2328246907","https://openalex.org/W2460229723","https://openalex.org/W2531966136","https://openalex.org/W2536941549","https://openalex.org/W2588088234","https://openalex.org/W2618937593","https://openalex.org/W2734802511","https://openalex.org/W2780318220","https://openalex.org/W2805334077","https://openalex.org/W2890197575","https://openalex.org/W2896327962","https://openalex.org/W2897837353","https://openalex.org/W2901090589","https://openalex.org/W2901157813","https://openalex.org/W2920941670","https://openalex.org/W2953950120","https://openalex.org/W3022220460","https://openalex.org/W3025949386","https://openalex.org/W3046360638","https://openalex.org/W3107570738","https://openalex.org/W3176717300","https://openalex.org/W3180935113","https://openalex.org/W3213895861","https://openalex.org/W4200100977","https://openalex.org/W4200508347","https://openalex.org/W4212852377","https://openalex.org/W4288042734","https://openalex.org/W4289546821","https://openalex.org/W4306759061","https://openalex.org/W4308511756","https://openalex.org/W4372316669","https://openalex.org/W4385142354","https://openalex.org/W4385432112","https://openalex.org/W4389921428","https://openalex.org/W4393237374","https://openalex.org/W4394690517","https://openalex.org/W4396956164","https://openalex.org/W4403237863","https://openalex.org/W4414065074"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract.":[0],"Considerable":[1],"effort":[2],"is":[3,160,188,223,246],"spent":[4],"at":[5],"insurance":[6,251],"and":[7,27,38,65,83,165,170,174,202,208],"reinsurance":[8],"companies":[9,252],"to":[10,59,110,190,194,226,250],"estimate":[11,60],"the":[12,61,93,101,116,123,180,210,221,227,238,258],"risk":[13,84],"posed":[14],"by":[15],"extratropical":[16],"cyclones":[17],"(ETCs).":[18],"Among":[19],"these":[20],"risks,":[21],"strong":[22],"near":[23],"surface":[24],"wind":[25,64,169,215],"speeds":[26],"heavy":[28],"precipitation":[29,66,90,178],"can":[30],"be":[31,147,191,255],"particularly":[32],"damaging,":[33],"threatening":[34],"infrastructure,":[35],"human":[36],"life,":[37],"billions":[39],"of":[40,52,63,85,125,127,212,220,229,240,247],"pounds":[41],"in":[42],"insured":[43],"losses.":[44],"Here,":[45],"we":[46,99],"use":[47],"nearly":[48],"700":[49],"years'":[50],"worth":[51],"extended":[53],"wintertime":[54],"seasonal":[55,96],"forecast":[56,97],"model":[57,117],"output":[58],"impacts":[62,130,241],"associated":[67],"with":[68,77,120],"European":[69,195],"ETCs.":[70],"Insured":[71],"losses":[72],"from":[73,88,198,242],"winds":[74],"are":[75,131],"estimated":[76,87],"a":[78],"storm":[79],"severity":[80],"index":[81],"(SSI)":[82],"flooding":[86],"country-aggregated":[89],"totals.":[91],"Using":[92],"Met":[94],"Office's":[95],"model,":[98],"follow":[100],"UNprecedented":[102],"Simulated":[103],"Extreme":[104],"ENsemble":[105],"(UNSEEN)":[106],"method,":[107],"here":[108],"applied":[109],"ETC":[111,129,142,158,196],"impacts.":[112],"After":[113],"demonstrating":[114],"that":[115,140,253],"represents":[118],"ETCs":[119],"good":[121],"accuracy,":[122],"likelihood":[124,211,228],"occurrence":[126],"unprecedented":[128,155,214],"quantified":[132],"for":[133,168,177,237,257],"several":[134],"countries":[135,181],"within":[136],"Europe.":[137],"The":[138,183,218,233],"probability":[139],"an":[141,145,154,213],"will":[143],"have":[144],"impact":[146,197],"more":[148],"extreme":[149,230],"than":[150],"any":[151],"observed":[152],"(i.e.":[153],"or":[156],"unseen":[157],"impact)":[159],"generally":[161],"between":[162,171],"0.5":[163],"%":[164,167,173,176],"1.6":[166],"0.2":[172],"0.7":[175],"across":[179],"considered.":[182],"North":[184],"Atlantic":[185],"Oscillation":[186],"(NAO)":[187],"shown":[189],"strongly":[192,200],"related":[193],"wind:":[199],"positive":[201],"negative":[203],"NAO":[204,222],"values":[205],"approximately":[206],"double":[207],"halve":[209],"impact,":[216],"respectively.":[217],"state":[219],"largely":[224],"unrelated":[225],"cyclone-related":[231],"precipitation.":[232],"dataset":[234],"created":[235],"allows":[236],"estimation":[239],"high-return-period":[243],"storms,":[244],"which":[245],"great":[248],"interest":[249],"must":[254],"prepared":[256],"potential":[259],"costs":[260],"incurred.":[261]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-08T09:06:37.294493","created_date":"2026-02-19T00:00:00"}
