{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7128805386","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","title":"Modeling and predicting land use / land cover dynamics in Borana National Park, southern Ethiopia","display_name":"Modeling and predicting land use / land cover dynamics in Borana National Park, southern Ethiopia","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-02-14","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7128805386","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210231789","display_name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","issn_l":"2665-9727","issn":["2665-9727"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102786459","display_name":"Gamtesa Olika","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0132-0498","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0132-0498"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Gamtesa Olika Bulto","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0132-0498","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004099364","display_name":"Gizachew Kabite Wedajo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6332-1042","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6332-1042"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gizachew Kabite Wedajo","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020421471","display_name":"Tadesse Woldemariam Gole","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7621-2873","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7621-2873"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tadesse Woldemariam Gole","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5067006303","display_name":"Desalegn Chala","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8045-6950","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8045-6950"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184942183","display_name":"University of Oslo","ror":"https://ror.org/01xtthb56","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Desalegn Chala","raw_affiliation_strings":["Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5024981212","display_name":"Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8635-260X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8635-260X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5102786459"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":2350,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2350},"apc_paid":{"value":2350,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2350},"fwci":1.7094,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.75588573,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"30","issue":null,"first_page":"101184","last_page":"101184"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10226","display_name":"Land Use and Ecosystem Services","score":0.9868000149726868,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10226","display_name":"Land Use and Ecosystem Services","score":0.9868000149726868,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13890","display_name":"Remote Sensing and Land Use","score":0.005100000184029341,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3305","display_name":"Geography, Planning and Development"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10319","display_name":"Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management","score":0.0026000000070780516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/land-use-and-land-cover-change","display_name":"land use and land cover change","score":0.9190000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shrub-encroachment","display_name":"shrub encroachment","score":0.8840000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shrubland-expansion","display_name":"shrubland expansion","score":0.8510000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rangeland-degradation","display_name":"rangeland degradation","score":0.8989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agricultural-expansion","display_name":"agricultural expansion","score":0.7490000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ca-markov-model","display_name":"CA-Markov model","score":0.8790000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regime-shifts","display_name":"tipping points","score":0.6669999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pastoral-livelihoods","display_name":"pastoral livelihoods","score":0.7289999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biodiversity-conservation","display_name":"biodiversity conservation","score":0.6610000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/grassland-loss","display_name":"grassland loss","score":0.5730000138282776}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4792198","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1165944","display_name":"Land use","level":2,"score":0.6258999705314636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780648208","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3001793","display_name":"Land cover","level":3,"score":0.4927999973297119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.41200000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.4000999927520752},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62649853","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q199687","display_name":"Remote sensing","level":1,"score":0.3506999909877777},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780428219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16952335","display_name":"Cover (algebra)","level":2,"score":0.27649998664855957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C502990516","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3395383","display_name":"Agricultural land","level":3,"score":0.275299996137619},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17206440","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6484056","display_name":"Land development","level":3,"score":0.2635999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524765639","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1501619","display_name":"Water resource management","level":1,"score":0.26330000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777514091","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5153960","display_name":"Communal land","level":4,"score":0.26330000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107826830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929380","display_name":"Environmental resource management","level":1,"score":0.259799987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.25360000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184603391","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q60738778","display_name":"Land-use planning","level":3,"score":0.2533000111579895}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210231789","display_name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","issn_l":"2665-9727","issn":["2665-9727"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:854ec4b074674b7cb9d27893a860d164","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/854ec4b074674b7cb9d27893a860d164","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, Vol 30, Iss , Pp 101184- (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101184","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210231789","display_name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","issn_l":"2665-9727","issn":["2665-9727"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":1.0,"display_name":"Life on land","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15"},{"score":0.8082000017166138,"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":41,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2347096944","https://openalex.org/W2547734701","https://openalex.org/W2610176873","https://openalex.org/W2725897987","https://openalex.org/W2791529673","https://openalex.org/W2810893975","https://openalex.org/W2888604121","https://openalex.org/W2890590433","https://openalex.org/W2972170785","https://openalex.org/W3012433780","https://openalex.org/W3044924943","https://openalex.org/W3045585619","https://openalex.org/W3046562600","https://openalex.org/W3084094075","https://openalex.org/W3092557297","https://openalex.org/W3135028703","https://openalex.org/W3162304556","https://openalex.org/W3164591427","https://openalex.org/W3184055054","https://openalex.org/W3186140930","https://openalex.org/W3200724455","https://openalex.org/W3210442935","https://openalex.org/W4210699701","https://openalex.org/W4220879290","https://openalex.org/W4281700351","https://openalex.org/W4289225140","https://openalex.org/W4297088110","https://openalex.org/W4319599461","https://openalex.org/W4391450988","https://openalex.org/W4394919289","https://openalex.org/W4395069357","https://openalex.org/W4397024138","https://openalex.org/W4399447123","https://openalex.org/W4401132208","https://openalex.org/W4401591307","https://openalex.org/W4402049234","https://openalex.org/W4403353058","https://openalex.org/W4404120841","https://openalex.org/W4407568121","https://openalex.org/W4412384517","https://openalex.org/W4413932276"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7170192887","https://openalex.org/W2347096944","https://openalex.org/W7116304235","https://openalex.org/W4386440392","https://openalex.org/W4416101999","https://openalex.org/W4391312659","https://openalex.org/W4307907710","https://openalex.org/W4289866186","https://openalex.org/W4410019365","https://openalex.org/W4402907233"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Understanding":[0],"LULC":[1,12,39,88],"dynamics":[2,40,89],"is":[3,34],"essential":[4],"for":[5,229],"biodiversity":[6],"conservation.":[7],"This":[8],"study":[9],"quantified":[10],"historical":[11],"changes":[13,201],"from":[14,105],"1987":[15,114],"to":[16,108,154,175,232],"2023":[17],"and":[18,83,110,115,126,134,140,181,196,209,221,236],"projected":[19,174],"future":[20],"trends":[21,166],"(2023-2059)":[22],"in":[23,28,97,123],"Borana":[24],"National":[25],"Park":[26],"(BNP)":[27],"southern":[29],"Ethiopia,":[30],"an":[31,178,203,213],"area":[32],"that":[33,41,217],"increasingly":[35],"threatened":[36],"by":[37,136,177,184],"long-term":[38],"have":[42],"not":[43],"been":[44],"comprehensively":[45],"assessed.":[46],"Multi-temporal":[47],"Landsat":[48],"imagery":[49],"was":[50],"classified":[51],"using":[52,70,92],"a":[53,76,93,101,120],"Random":[54],"Forest":[55],"(RF)":[56],"algorithm":[57],"on":[58],"the":[59,67,117,188,226,238],"Google":[60],"Earth":[61],"Engine":[62],"(GEE)":[63],"platform.":[64],"We":[65],"compared":[66],"RF":[68],"model":[69,77,95],"Spectral":[71,79,81],"Bands":[72],"only":[73],"(SB)":[74],"with":[75,129,171],"integrating":[78],"Bands,":[80],"Indices,":[82],"Topographic":[84],"variables":[85],"(SBSITV).":[86],"Future":[87,162],"were":[90],"simulated":[91],"CA\u2013Markov":[94],"approach":[96],"TerrSet.":[98],"Results":[99],"reveal":[100],"dramatic":[102],"regime":[103],"shift":[104],"open":[106],"rangelands":[107],"shrub-dominated":[109],"cultivated":[111],"landscapes.":[112],"Between":[113],"2023,":[116],"park":[118],"experienced":[119],"profound":[121],"reduction":[122],"vital":[124],"grazing":[125],"forest":[127,135],"resources,":[128],"grassland,":[130,132],"shrubby":[131,193],"woodland":[133,191],"\u221224.5%,":[137],"\u221251.9%,":[138],"\u221263.9%,":[139],"\u221275.5%":[141],"respectively.":[142],"Conversely,":[143],"shrubland":[144],"expanded":[145],"more":[146],"than":[147],"five-fold,":[148],"increasing":[149],"its":[150],"landscape":[151],"footprint":[152],"7.5%":[153],"50.7%,":[155],"while":[156],"agricultural":[157,182],"land":[158,173,183,198],"increased":[159],"over":[160],"6-fold.":[161],"projection":[163],"indicate":[164],"these":[165],"will":[167],"persist":[168],"through":[169],"2059,":[170],"shrub":[172,234],"expand":[176],"additional":[179],"+41.9%":[180],"55.8%,":[185],"primarily":[186],"at":[187],"expense":[189],"of":[190,206,241],"(\u221269.4%),":[192],"grassland":[194],"(\u221254.5%)":[195],"grass":[197],"(29.9%).":[199],"These":[200,223],"charactized":[202],"extensive":[204],"process":[205],"bush":[207],"encroachment":[208,235],"rangeland":[210,244],"fragmentation,":[211],"signaling":[212],"ecological":[214,239],"tipping":[215],"point":[216],"threatens":[218],"pastoral":[219],"livelihoods":[220],"biodiversity.":[222],"findings":[224],"underscore":[225],"urgent":[227],"need":[228],"management":[230],"interventions":[231],"arrest":[233],"restore":[237],"integrity":[240],"this":[242],"fragile":[243],"ecosystem.":[245]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2026-02-14T00:00:00"}
