{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7127040828","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117990","title":"Deep Learning Atmospheric Models Reliably Simulate Out\u2010of\u2010Sample Land Heat and Cold Wave Frequencies","display_name":"Deep Learning Atmospheric Models Reliably Simulate Out\u2010of\u2010Sample Land Heat and Cold Wave Frequencies","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-02-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7127040828","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117990"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1029/2025gl117990","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117990","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117990","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2025GL117990","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S36624081","display_name":"Geophysical Research Letters","issn_l":"0094-8276","issn":["0094-8276","1944-8007"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315809","host_organization_name":"American Geophysical Union","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315809"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Geophysical Union"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Geophysical Research Letters","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2025GL117990","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087162732","display_name":"Zilu Meng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5706-592X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5706-592X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I201448701","display_name":"University of Washington","ror":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201448701"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Zilu Meng","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science University of Washington  Seattle WA USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5706-592X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science University of Washington  Seattle WA USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I201448701"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050225209","display_name":"Gregory J. Hakim","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8486-9739","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8486-9739"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I201448701","display_name":"University of Washington","ror":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201448701"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gregory J. Hakim","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science University of Washington  Seattle WA USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8486-9739","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science University of Washington  Seattle WA USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I201448701"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128062098","display_name":"Wenchang Yang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0053-9527","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0053-9527"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I20089843","display_name":"Princeton University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hx57361","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wenchang Yang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Geosciences Princeton University  Princeton NJ USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0053-9527","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Geosciences Princeton University  Princeton NJ USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5124724450","display_name":"Gabriel A. Vecchi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5085-224X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5085-224X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I20089843","display_name":"Princeton University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hx57361","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405268937","display_name":"High Meadows Environmental Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/02hgay921","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gabriel A. Vecchi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Geosciences Princeton University  Princeton NJ USA","High Meadows Environmental Institute Princeton University  Princeton NJ USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5085-224X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Geosciences Princeton University  Princeton NJ USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"High Meadows Environmental Institute Princeton University  Princeton NJ USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843","https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5087162732"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I201448701"],"apc_list":{"value":3190,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3190},"apc_paid":{"value":3190,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3190},"fwci":16.0669,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":5,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9910718,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":98,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"53","issue":"3","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9804999828338623,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9804999828338623,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.01730000041425228,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13530","display_name":"Climate Change and Environmental Impact","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heat-waves","display_name":"heat waves","score":0.6779999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-event-frequency","display_name":"extreme event frequency","score":0.7310000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/out-of-sample-generalization","display_name":"out-of-sample generalization","score":0.8849999904632568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hiram","display_name":"Hiram","score":0.8389999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/historical-climate-simulation","display_name":"historical climate simulation","score":0.5590000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/north-asia","display_name":"North Asia","score":0.5059999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/north-america","display_name":"North America","score":0.996999979019165}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.6597999930381775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141452985","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q650994","display_name":"General Circulation Model","level":3,"score":0.5756999850273132},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.5429999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781162219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26250693","display_name":"Replicate","level":2,"score":0.5411999821662903},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108583219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q197536","display_name":"Deep learning","level":2,"score":0.5364000201225281},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.522599995136261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.5116000175476074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.5008000135421753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134097258","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1507383","display_name":"Sea surface temperature","level":2,"score":0.4562000036239624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136894858","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q213926","display_name":"Sea ice","level":2,"score":0.4383000135421753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.3978999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993220731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q215864","display_name":"Heat wave","level":3,"score":0.39579999446868896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21790881","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1070117","display_name":"Deep sea","level":2,"score":0.3864000141620636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2994323764","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q909741","display_name":"Surface air temperature","level":3,"score":0.384799987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91586092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q757520","display_name":"Atmospheric sciences","level":1,"score":0.37950000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.37310001254081726},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118365302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4817115","display_name":"Atmospheric model","level":2,"score":0.37040001153945923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.3537999987602234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781291010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178580","display_name":"Period (music)","level":2,"score":0.3345000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150284090","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2615451","display_name":"Atmospheric circulation","level":2,"score":0.33340001106262207},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62649853","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q199687","display_name":"Remote sensing","level":1,"score":0.3172999918460846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62279395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4817115","display_name":"Atmospheric models","level":3,"score":0.31150001287460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37933242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q931652","display_name":"Deep convection","level":3,"score":0.3027999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.3009999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144189326","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q642683","display_name":"Cold wave","level":2,"score":0.30000001192092896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908525100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Extreme Cold","level":2,"score":0.27970001101493835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11111821","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205880","display_name":"Circulation (fluid dynamics)","level":2,"score":0.275299996137619},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35797730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1929527","display_name":"Wave model","level":2,"score":0.2750000059604645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199491958","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q737514","display_name":"Global change","level":3,"score":0.26269999146461487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781009140","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7170389","display_name":"Persistence (discontinuity)","level":2,"score":0.250900000333786}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1029/2025gl117990","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117990","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117990","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2025GL117990","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S36624081","display_name":"Geophysical Research Letters","issn_l":"0094-8276","issn":["0094-8276","1944-8007"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315809","host_organization_name":"American Geophysical Union","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315809"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Geophysical Union"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Geophysical Research Letters","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1029/2025gl117990","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117990","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117990","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2025GL117990","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S36624081","display_name":"Geophysical Research Letters","issn_l":"0094-8276","issn":["0094-8276","1944-8007"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-a","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315809","host_organization_name":"American Geophysical Union","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315809"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Geophysical Union"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Geophysical Research Letters","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":0.9786999821662903}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14","display_name":"Life below water","score":0.5303102731704712},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":0.45146918296813965}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1355693722","display_name":"Collaborative Research: GRate \u2013 Integrating data and modeling to quantify rates of Greenland Ice Sheet change, Holocene to future","funder_award_id":"2105805","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3916822159","display_name":"Collaborative Research: Connecting Seasonal to Millennial Timescales through Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation","funder_award_id":"2402475","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6188537594","display_name":"Reconstructing Earth Energy Imbalance","funder_award_id":"2202526","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G938626617","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2023\u20134715","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314817","funder_display_name":"Heising-Simons Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320310094","display_name":"University of Washington","ror":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314817","display_name":"Heising-Simons Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/01mp52y34"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7127040828.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7127040828.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1901129140","https://openalex.org/W1959213299","https://openalex.org/W2006165291","https://openalex.org/W2106529580","https://openalex.org/W2109615115","https://openalex.org/W2605140704","https://openalex.org/W2756013113","https://openalex.org/W2952441147","https://openalex.org/W3025949386","https://openalex.org/W3118150832","https://openalex.org/W3121986428","https://openalex.org/W3174184015","https://openalex.org/W3201774801","https://openalex.org/W3212565273","https://openalex.org/W4365812914","https://openalex.org/W4388654737","https://openalex.org/W4399387138","https://openalex.org/W4400880443","https://openalex.org/W4403085937","https://openalex.org/W4409314668","https://openalex.org/W4410856408","https://openalex.org/W4413348968","https://openalex.org/W4413501898","https://openalex.org/W6911684347","https://openalex.org/W6945020821"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Deep":[1,41],"learning":[2],"(DL)\u2013based":[3],"general":[4],"circulation":[5],"models":[6,60,81,120],"(GCMs)":[7],"are":[8,61],"emerging":[9],"as":[10],"fast":[11],"simulators,":[12],"yet":[13],"their":[14,21],"ability":[15],"to":[16,84,105,126,132,147],"replicate":[17],"extreme":[18],"events":[19,99],"outside":[20],"training":[22],"range":[23],"remains":[24],"unknown.":[25],"Here,":[26],"we":[27],"evaluate":[28],"two":[29],"such":[30],"models\u2014the":[31],"hybrid":[32,141],"Neural":[33],"General":[34],"Circulation":[35],"Model":[36,45],"(NGCM)":[37],"and":[38,57,68,92,97,115,135],"purely":[39],"data\u2010driven":[40],"Learning":[42],"Earth":[43],"System":[44],"(DLESyM)\u2014against":[46],"a":[47],"conventional":[48],"high\u2010resolution":[49],"land\u2013atmosphere":[50],"model":[51],"(HiRAM)":[52],"in":[53],"simulating":[54],"land":[55],"heatwaves":[56],"coldwaves.":[58],"All":[59],"forced":[62],"with":[63,102],"observed":[64],"sea":[65,69],"surface":[66],"temperatures":[67],"ice":[70],"over":[71,110],"1900\u20132020,":[72],"focusing":[73],"on":[74],"the":[75,90,139],"out\u2010of\u2010sample":[76],"period":[77],"(1900\u20131960).":[78],"Both":[79],"DL":[80],"generalize":[82],"successfully":[83],"unseen":[85],"climate":[86],"conditions,":[87],"broadly":[88],"reproducing":[89],"frequency":[91],"spatial":[93],"patterns":[94],"of":[95,112],"heatwave":[96,134],"coldwave":[98,136],"during":[100,123],"1900\u20131960":[101],"skill":[103],"comparable":[104],"HiRAM.":[106,148],"An":[107],"exception":[108],"is":[109],"portions":[111],"North":[113,116],"Asia":[114],"America,":[117],"where":[118],"all":[119],"perform":[121],"poorly":[122],"1940\u20131960.":[124],"Due":[125],"excessive":[127],"temperature":[128],"autocorrelation,":[129],"DLESyM":[130],"tends":[131],"overestimate":[133],"frequencies,":[137],"whereas":[138],"physics\u2013DL":[140],"NGCM":[142],"exhibits":[143],"persistence":[144],"more":[145],"similar":[146]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2026-02-03T00:00:00"}
