{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7125767321","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025","title":"The Dollar during the Great Recession: The Information Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and the \u201cFlight to Safety\u201d","display_name":"The Dollar during the Great Recession: The Information Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and the \u201cFlight to Safety\u201d","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7125767321","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025","mag":"2980369458"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/jofi.70025","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S5353659","display_name":"The Journal of Finance","issn_l":"0022-1082","issn":["0022-1082","1540-6261"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-1-star","ft50","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","utd24","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Journal of Finance","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4905627","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016386458","display_name":"Vania Stavrakeva","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"VANIA STAVRAKEVA","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123999654","display_name":"JENNY TANG","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1317239608","display_name":"Federal Reserve","ror":"https://ror.org/05fk5tr28","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I46510805","display_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Boston","ror":"https://ror.org/01djrhs97","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I46510805"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I61544103","display_name":"London Business School","ror":"https://ror.org/001c2sn75","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I61544103"]}],"countries":["GB","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"JENNY TANG","raw_affiliation_strings":["Vania Stavrakeva is at London Business School. Jenny Tang is at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System. We are indebted to Editor Stefan Nagel, an anonymous Associate Editor, and two anonymous referees for their useful suggestions. Nikhil Rao provided invaluable research assistance on this project. We thank the participants and discussants at numerous seminars and conferences. We are also grateful to Emmanuel Farhi, Domenico Giannone, Gita Gopinath, Kinda Hachem, Stephen Morris, Ali Ozdagli, Paolo Pesenti, Ricardo Reis, He\u0301le\u0300ne Rey, Kenneth Rogoff, and Michael Weber for useful comments. We have read The Journal of Finance disclosure policy and have no conflicts of interest to disclose"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Vania Stavrakeva is at London Business School. Jenny Tang is at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System. We are indebted to Editor Stefan Nagel, an anonymous Associate Editor, and two anonymous referees for their useful suggestions. Nikhil Rao provided invaluable research assistance on this project. We thank the participants and discussants at numerous seminars and conferences. We are also grateful to Emmanuel Farhi, Domenico Giannone, Gita Gopinath, Kinda Hachem, Stephen Morris, Ali Ozdagli, Paolo Pesenti, Ricardo Reis, He\u0301le\u0300ne Rey, Kenneth Rogoff, and Michael Weber for useful comments. We have read The Journal of Finance disclosure policy and have no conflicts of interest to disclose","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I46510805","https://openalex.org/I61544103"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5016386458"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":4430,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4430},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":5.6477,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":25,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90427517,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"81","issue":"2","first_page":"971","last_page":"1010"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9833999872207642,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9833999872207642,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.013299999758601189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.0010000000474974513,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/great-recession","display_name":"Great Recession","score":0.7670000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/us-monetary-policy","display_name":"US monetary policy","score":0.8240000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forward-guidance","display_name":"forward guidance","score":0.8809999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/us-dollar-exchange-rate","display_name":"US dollar exchange rate","score":0.6050000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/flight-to-safety","display_name":"flight to safety","score":0.8989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interest-rate-cuts","display_name":"interest rate cuts","score":0.6669999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/currency-appreciation","display_name":"currency appreciation","score":0.6320000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-expectations","display_name":"inflation expectations","score":0.7329999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycles","display_name":"business cycles","score":0.5559999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/currency-depreciation","display_name":"currency depreciation","score":0.4440000057220459}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7778000235557556},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C109168655","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q242988","display_name":"Liberian dollar","level":2,"score":0.7386000156402588},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.7037000060081482},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.6687999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780343955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333173","display_name":"Surprise","level":2,"score":0.6413999795913696},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127162648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16858953","display_name":"Channel (broadcasting)","level":2,"score":0.5582000017166138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175025494","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179179","display_name":"Interest rate","level":2,"score":0.4339999854564667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019931467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4917","display_name":"Us dollar","level":3,"score":0.37139999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C88583849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5183768","display_name":"Credit channel","level":4,"score":0.34290000796318054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776988154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66100","display_name":"Exchange rate","level":2,"score":0.2964000105857849}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/jofi.70025","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S5353659","display_name":"The Journal of Finance","issn_l":"0022-1082","issn":["0022-1082","1540-6261"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-1-star","ft50","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","utd24","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Journal of Finance","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.4905627","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4905627","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4905627","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:lbsresearch.london.edu:4381","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://lbsresearch.london.edu/view/lbs_authors/4216d5f81a4d898b3a231a1947202f17.html>","pdf_url":"https://lbsresearch.london.edu/id/eprint/4381/1/Manuscript20200030.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400580","display_name":"London Business School Research Online (London Business School)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I61544103","host_organization_name":"London Business School","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I61544103"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"mag:2980369458","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/14034.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:3132422799","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3465746","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14034","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14034","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.4905627","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4905627","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4905627","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7125767321.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7125767321.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":51,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1787982013","https://openalex.org/W1982780405","https://openalex.org/W2035387744","https://openalex.org/W2038224101","https://openalex.org/W2044711202","https://openalex.org/W2044758379","https://openalex.org/W2056936851","https://openalex.org/W2067094520","https://openalex.org/W2088310452","https://openalex.org/W2102472611","https://openalex.org/W2110337991","https://openalex.org/W2123888799","https://openalex.org/W2129846541","https://openalex.org/W2135860498","https://openalex.org/W2147504124","https://openalex.org/W2147594010","https://openalex.org/W2154820696","https://openalex.org/W2164270691","https://openalex.org/W2165100677","https://openalex.org/W2168566492","https://openalex.org/W2169192046","https://openalex.org/W2257048727","https://openalex.org/W2306372620","https://openalex.org/W2324302607","https://openalex.org/W2474792385","https://openalex.org/W2553269777","https://openalex.org/W2563540046","https://openalex.org/W2580735467","https://openalex.org/W2605537144","https://openalex.org/W2796324504","https://openalex.org/W2891159187","https://openalex.org/W2891382546","https://openalex.org/W3023660006","https://openalex.org/W3042784400","https://openalex.org/W3046044289","https://openalex.org/W3082004086","https://openalex.org/W3121375825","https://openalex.org/W3121986737","https://openalex.org/W3122104724","https://openalex.org/W3122452572","https://openalex.org/W3123873541","https://openalex.org/W3124700471","https://openalex.org/W3124933125","https://openalex.org/W3125508589","https://openalex.org/W3126081245","https://openalex.org/W3152614050","https://openalex.org/W3204544948","https://openalex.org/W3207075005","https://openalex.org/W4236290419","https://openalex.org/W4319296147","https://openalex.org/W4390151595"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2980369458","https://openalex.org/W2909690225","https://openalex.org/W344329661","https://openalex.org/W7098124374","https://openalex.org/W3190976163","https://openalex.org/W7127376149","https://openalex.org/W4407419080","https://openalex.org/W4404708994","https://openalex.org/W1484794597","https://openalex.org/W7095126450"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"ABSTRACT":[0],"Conventional":[1],"wisdom":[2],"holds":[3],"that":[4,47,80,94],"lowering":[5],"a":[6,53,66,72,92],"home":[7],"country's":[8],"interest":[9],"rate":[10,69],"relative":[11],"to":[12,43],"another's":[13],"will":[14],"depreciate":[15,82],"the":[16,32,36,76,85],"domestic":[17],"currency.":[18],"We":[19,39,61,90],"document":[20,63],"that,":[21],"at":[22],"business\u2010cycle":[23],"frequencies,":[24],"U.S.":[25,59,68],"forward":[26,45],"guidance":[27,46],"monetary":[28],"policy":[29],"easings":[30],"had":[31],"opposite":[33],"effect":[34,42,55],"during":[35],"Great":[37],"Recession.":[38],"attribute":[40],"this":[41],"calendar\u2010based":[44],"signaled":[48],"economic":[49],"weakness,":[50],"resulting":[51],"in":[52],"\u201cflight\u2010to\u2010safety\u201d":[54],"and":[56],"lower":[57],"expected":[58],"inflation.":[60],"also":[62],"cross\u2010currency":[64],"heterogeneity:":[65],"surprise":[67],"cut":[70],"induced":[71],"larger":[73],"appreciation":[74],"of":[75],"dollar":[77],"against":[78],"currencies":[79],"typically":[81],"more":[83],"when":[84],"world":[86],"economy":[87],"is":[88],"contracting.":[89],"build":[91],"model":[93],"can":[95],"reconcile":[96],"these":[97],"findings.":[98]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2026-01-28T00:00:00"}