{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7125599325","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","title":"Revisiting the Relationship between Marriage and Childbearing in East Asia: The Role of Fertility Desires in Japan","display_name":"Revisiting the Relationship between Marriage and Childbearing in East Asia: The Role of Fertility Desires in Japan","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-24","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7125599325","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030237436","display_name":"Fumiya Uchikoshi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4972-4275","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4972-4275"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fumiya Uchikoshi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Harvard University"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4972-4275","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Harvard University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078613733","display_name":"Ryota Mugiyama","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6157-5575","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6157-5575"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ryota Mugiyama","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6157-5575","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066505950","display_name":"Shohei Yoda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0525-278X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0525-278X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shohei Yoda","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032279989","display_name":"James M. Raymo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6766-685X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6766-685X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I20089843","display_name":"Princeton University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hx57361","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"James M. Raymo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Princeton University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Princeton University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10585","display_name":"Family Dynamics and Relationships","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10585","display_name":"Family Dynamics and Relationships","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14348","display_name":"Marriage and Family Dynamics","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11544","display_name":"Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3318","display_name":"Gender Studies"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/marriage-timing","display_name":"marriage timing","score":0.7059999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/desire-for-children","display_name":"desire for children","score":0.7559999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fertility-decline","display_name":"fertility decline","score":0.6169999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/delayed-marriage","display_name":"delayed marriage","score":0.8360000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/east-asia","display_name":"East Asia","score":0.5440000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/japan","display_name":"Japan","score":0.8820000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/attitudes-toward-parenthood","display_name":"attitudes toward parenthood","score":0.7620000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gender-differences-in-marriage","display_name":"gender differences in marriage","score":0.6380000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pronatalist-policy","display_name":"pronatalist policy","score":0.8500000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/family-expectations","display_name":"family expectations","score":0.5669999718666077}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518429986","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q964401","display_name":"Fertility","level":3,"score":0.8988999724388123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44725695","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q288156","display_name":"Normative","level":2,"score":0.7225000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779076696","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1280670","display_name":"Family planning","level":4,"score":0.43160000443458557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47122089","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q285897","display_name":"Total fertility rate","level":5,"score":0.4307999908924103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.3815999925136566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160050368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q132453","display_name":"Developed country","level":3,"score":0.3582000136375427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4249254","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3044431","display_name":"Demographic economics","level":1,"score":0.35120001435279846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49261128","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132455","display_name":"Hazard","level":2,"score":0.32760000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29122968","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1414816","display_name":"Incentive","level":2,"score":0.3230000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3149999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137403100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q41710","display_name":"Ethnic group","level":2,"score":0.31130000948905945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.3018999993801117},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83864248","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177323","display_name":"Developing country","level":2,"score":0.2948000133037567},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.29409998655319214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C46299933","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q61559","display_name":"Child mortality","level":3,"score":0.2928999960422516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.28209999203681946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.28060001134872437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.2700999975204468},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37512671","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q203516","display_name":"Birth rate","level":4,"score":0.2689000070095062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76775654","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q27231","display_name":"East Asia","level":3,"score":0.26100000739097595}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/k5e8m_v2","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[{"display_name":"Observational Study","id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/observational-study"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7151924389","https://openalex.org/W3120297045","https://openalex.org/W4408619174","https://openalex.org/W2953462346","https://openalex.org/W3044774817","https://openalex.org/W141937372","https://openalex.org/W2279707797","https://openalex.org/W4388073899","https://openalex.org/W1554718324","https://openalex.org/W7163882173"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0],"this":[1,60],"study,":[2],"we":[3,43,98],"propose":[4],"and":[5,25,30,93,120,136,161],"evaluate":[6,59],"a":[7,65,67,177],"new":[8],"framework":[9],"for":[10,23,37,85,148,184],"understanding":[11],"\u201clowest-low\u201d":[12],"fertility":[13,39,94,159,189],"in":[14,40,173,190],"East":[15,191],"Asia,":[16,192],"emphasizing":[17],"the":[18,21,34,41,76],"link":[19,154],"between":[20,155],"desire":[22,124,134],"children":[24,127],"marriage.":[26],"Recognizing":[27],"that":[28,45,89,195],"delayed":[29,162],"declining":[31,188],"marriage":[32,46,92,105,116,147,163,178],"is":[33,71,166],"primary":[35],"reason":[36],"low":[38],"region,":[42],"posit":[44],"decisions":[47],"are":[48,95,142,198],"shaped":[49],"by":[50,169],"intentions":[51],"or":[52,157],"incentives":[53],"(not)":[54],"to":[55,125,175],"have":[56,126],"children.":[57],"We":[58,111],"hypothesis":[61],"using":[62,106],"Japan":[63],"as":[64],"case,":[66],"society":[68],"where":[69],"parenthood":[70,141],"an":[72],"integral":[73],"part":[74],"of":[75,78,103,115],"\u201cpackage\u201d":[77],"normative":[79],"family":[80],"expectations":[81],"accompanying":[82],"marriage,":[83],"especially":[84,193],"women.":[86,152],"After":[87],"confirming":[88],"attitudes":[90,139],"toward":[91,140],"strongly":[96],"correlated,":[97],"estimate":[99],"discrete-time":[100],"hazard":[101],"models":[102],"first":[104],"nationally":[107],"representative":[108],"longitudinal":[109],"data.":[110],"find":[112,176],"that,":[113],"net":[114],"desires,":[117],"(1)":[118],"women":[119],"men":[121,165],"with":[122,145],"no":[123],"marry":[128],"significantly":[129],"later":[130,146],"than":[131],"those":[132],"who":[133],"children,":[135],"(2)":[137],"uncertain":[138,158],"also":[143],"associated":[144],"men,":[149],"but":[150],"not":[151],"The":[153],"negative":[156],"desires":[160],"among":[164],"partially":[167],"explained":[168],"their":[170],"lower":[171],"engagement":[172],"efforts":[174],"partner.":[179],"These":[180],"results":[181],"provide":[182],"insights":[183],"policy":[185],"discussions":[186],"about":[187],"concerns":[194],"pro-natalist":[196],"policies":[197],"mistargeted.":[199]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2026-01-25T00:00:00"}