{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7124252128","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","title":"Dynamic internal variability dominates uncertainty in modeling future extreme precipitation","display_name":"Dynamic internal variability dominates uncertainty in modeling future extreme precipitation","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-15","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7124252128","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210224503","display_name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","issn_l":"2397-3722","issn":["2397-3722"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-2","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319908","host_organization_name":"Nature Portfolio","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319908","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Nature Portfolio","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5117230641","display_name":"Min Sothearith","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I206597221","display_name":"Kongju National University","ror":"https://ror.org/0373nm262","country_code":"KR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I206597221"]}],"countries":["KR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Min Sothearith","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kongju National University, Cheon-an, South Korea"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kongju National University, Cheon-an, South Korea","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I206597221"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039108934","display_name":"Daeryong Park","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7325-5480","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7325-5480"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24062138","display_name":"Konkuk University","ror":"https://ror.org/025h1m602","country_code":"KR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24062138"]}],"countries":["KR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daeryong Park","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24062138"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103042637","display_name":"Kuk-Hyun Ahn","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8727-0609","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8727-0609"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I206597221","display_name":"Kongju National University","ror":"https://ror.org/0373nm262","country_code":"KR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I206597221"]}],"countries":["KR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Kuk-Hyun Ahn","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kongju National University, Cheon-an, South Korea"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kongju National University, Cheon-an, South Korea","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I206597221"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5103042637"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I206597221"],"apc_list":{"value":3590,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3590},"apc_paid":{"value":3590,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3590},"fwci":3.416,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.85676626,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"9","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13530","display_name":"Climate Change and Environmental Impact","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-precipitation","display_name":"heavy rainfall","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/internal-climate-variability","display_name":"natural climate variability","score":0.640999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dynamic-processes","display_name":"dynamic processes","score":0.5249999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/thermodynamic-processes","display_name":"thermodynamic processes","score":0.9589999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"uncertainty quantification","score":0.6880000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/signal-to-noise-ratio","display_name":"signal-to-noise ratio","score":0.8700000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/limits-of-predictability","display_name":"predictability limits","score":0.7239999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-projections","display_name":"climate change projections","score":0.6340000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emissions-scenarios","display_name":"emission scenarios","score":0.8309999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/equatorial-precipitation","display_name":"equatorial precipitation","score":0.6060000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-equity","display_name":"climate equity","score":0.5569999814033508}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.7515000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.6310999989509583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.6233999729156494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.5472999811172485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.4065999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91586092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q757520","display_name":"Atmospheric sciences","level":1,"score":0.3549000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2994067962","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3509184","display_name":"Climate system","level":3,"score":0.34310001134872437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.34119999408721924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777052490","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5072826","display_name":"Chaotic","level":2,"score":0.31130000948905945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.29919999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51865526","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5379962","display_name":"Ensemble average","level":2,"score":0.2815000116825104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.2734000086784363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126691448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2028919","display_name":"Magnitude (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.25929999351501465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C68709404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1134475","display_name":"Flux (metallurgy)","level":2,"score":0.2533999979496002}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210224503","display_name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","issn_l":"2397-3722","issn":["2397-3722"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-2","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319908","host_organization_name":"Nature Portfolio","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319908","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Nature Portfolio","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:1a707b191b3e4349bc60cae7ce1bd80a","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/1a707b191b3e4349bc60cae7ce1bd80a","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 9, Iss 1 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01318-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210224503","display_name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","issn_l":"2397-3722","issn":["2397-3722"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-2","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319908","host_organization_name":"Nature Portfolio","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319908","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Nature Portfolio","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":0.9786999821662903,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":0.8481528162956238,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":48,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1996653992","https://openalex.org/W2053693629","https://openalex.org/W2067715694","https://openalex.org/W2112338674","https://openalex.org/W2120618726","https://openalex.org/W2125634634","https://openalex.org/W2138644576","https://openalex.org/W2193503481","https://openalex.org/W2296298476","https://openalex.org/W2302862193","https://openalex.org/W2337225114","https://openalex.org/W2410390527","https://openalex.org/W2544051602","https://openalex.org/W2616665687","https://openalex.org/W2794415087","https://openalex.org/W2811161607","https://openalex.org/W2898962279","https://openalex.org/W2986594135","https://openalex.org/W2989057107","https://openalex.org/W3002478926","https://openalex.org/W3008786499","https://openalex.org/W3041926889","https://openalex.org/W3042523238","https://openalex.org/W3048509962","https://openalex.org/W3049213504","https://openalex.org/W3084424386","https://openalex.org/W3108888189","https://openalex.org/W3174720120","https://openalex.org/W3189595511","https://openalex.org/W3214274958","https://openalex.org/W4318045160","https://openalex.org/W4365504933","https://openalex.org/W4379197526","https://openalex.org/W4382989215","https://openalex.org/W4387098187","https://openalex.org/W4387221150","https://openalex.org/W4388907330","https://openalex.org/W4390672156","https://openalex.org/W4392299182","https://openalex.org/W4392383957","https://openalex.org/W4396622523","https://openalex.org/W4399535656","https://openalex.org/W4406454831","https://openalex.org/W4406615907","https://openalex.org/W4409347603","https://openalex.org/W4409627887","https://openalex.org/W4410036145","https://openalex.org/W4411570639"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Extreme":[0],"precipitation":[1,43],"(EP)":[2],"is":[3,120],"a":[4],"major":[5],"climate":[6],"risk,":[7],"yet":[8],"its":[9],"projections":[10],"remain":[11],"uncertain":[12],"due":[13],"to":[14,38,129],"the":[15,39,75,84,121,133],"combined":[16],"influence":[17],"of":[18,124,135],"thermodynamic":[19],"(TH)":[20],"and":[21,35,45,61,132],"dynamic":[22],"(DY)":[23],"processes.":[24],"Using":[25],"multi-model":[26],"simulations":[27],"under":[28],"three":[29],"emission":[30],"scenarios,":[31],"we":[32],"separate":[33],"TH":[34,49,91],"DY":[36,56,63,72,117],"contributions":[37],"annual":[40],"maximum":[41],"1-day":[42],"(Rx1Day)":[44],"quantify":[46],"their":[47,59],"uncertainties.":[48],"consistently":[50],"intensifies":[51],"extremes":[52],"with":[53,68],"warming,":[54],"while":[55],"strongly":[57],"modulates":[58],"magnitude":[60],"direction.":[62],"processes":[64],"dominate":[65],"Rx1Day":[66],"uncertainty,":[67,126],"internal":[69,118],"variability":[70,96,119],"within":[71],"emerging":[73],"as":[74],"leading":[76],"contributor.":[77],"Signal-to-noise":[78],"ratio":[79],"(SNR)":[80],"analysis":[81],"shows":[82],"that":[83,116],"forced":[85],"signal":[86],"emerges":[87],"more":[88],"clearly":[89],"for":[90,110],"than":[92],"DY,":[93],"where":[94],"chaotic":[95],"fundamentally":[97],"limits":[98,128],"predictability.":[99],"The":[100],"strongest":[101],"intensification":[102],"occurs":[103],"in":[104,141],"equatorial":[105],"regions,":[106],"raising":[107],"equity":[108],"concerns":[109],"vulnerable":[111],"populations.":[112],"These":[113],"results":[114],"demonstrate":[115],"primary":[122],"driver":[123],"EP":[125],"highlighting":[127],"long-term":[130],"predictability":[131],"importance":[134],"properly":[136],"representing":[137],"natural":[138],"dynamical":[139],"fluctuations":[140],"future":[142],"projections.":[143]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-09-30T09:27:27.532063","created_date":"2026-01-16T00:00:00"}
