{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7122524924","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70245","title":"Projected increases in shoreline erosion and potential flooding risk along China's sandy coasts under a warming climate","display_name":"Projected increases in shoreline erosion and potential flooding risk along China's sandy coasts under a warming climate","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7122524924","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70245"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/esp.70245","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70245","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70245","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S92316360","display_name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","issn_l":"0197-9337","issn":["0197-9337","0360-1269","1096-9837","1931-8065"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","jufo-2","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5122824793","display_name":"Xiangfei Li","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6186-3844","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6186-3844"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xiangfei Li","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology  Nanjing China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6186-3844","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology  Nanjing China","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5122822188","display_name":"Shuo Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7827-187X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7827-187X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I14243506","display_name":"Hong Kong Polytechnic University","ror":"https://ror.org/0030zas98","country_code":"HK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I14243506"]}],"countries":["HK"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Shuo Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Guangdong\u2010Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Marine Infrastructure, Research Institute for Land and Space The Hong Kong Polytechnic University  Hong Kong China","State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities, Department of Land Surveying and Geo\u2010Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University  Hong Kong China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7827-187X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Guangdong\u2010Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Marine Infrastructure, Research Institute for Land and Space The Hong Kong Polytechnic University  Hong Kong China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I14243506"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities, Department of Land Surveying and Geo\u2010Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University  Hong Kong China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I14243506"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085175113","display_name":"Michalis Ioannis Vousdoukas","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2655-6181","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2655-6181"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98805295","display_name":"University of the Aegean","ror":"https://ror.org/03zsp3p94","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98805295"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michalis I. Vousdoukas","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Marine Sciences University of the Aegean  Mytilene Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Marine Sciences University of the Aegean  Mytilene Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98805295"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038943212","display_name":"Mingfu Guan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5684-4697","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5684-4697"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I889458895","display_name":"University of Hong Kong","ror":"https://ror.org/02zhqgq86","country_code":"HK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I889458895"]}],"countries":["HK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mingfu Guan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil Engineering University of Hong Kong  Hong Kong China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5684-4697","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil Engineering University of Hong Kong  Hong Kong China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I889458895"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068947880","display_name":"Wen Dai","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7424-644X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7424-644X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wen Dai","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology  Nanjing China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7424-644X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology  Nanjing China","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5122758220","display_name":"Lin Zhao","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lin Zhao","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology  Nanjing China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology  Nanjing China","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5122822188"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I14243506"],"apc_list":{"value":5330,"currency":"USD","value_usd":5330},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.02093476,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"51","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10647","display_name":"Coastal and Marine Dynamics","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1904","display_name":"Earth-Surface Processes"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10647","display_name":"Coastal and Marine Dynamics","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1904","display_name":"Earth-Surface Processes"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10930","display_name":"Flood Risk Assessment and Management","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10779","display_name":"Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coastal-erosion","display_name":"coastal erosion","score":0.9959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coastal-flooding","display_name":"coastal flooding","score":0.9210000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sandy-beaches","display_name":"sandy beaches","score":0.6079999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sea-level-rise","display_name":"sea level rise","score":0.9259999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-sea-levels","display_name":"extreme sea levels","score":0.8700000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-impacts","display_name":"climate change impacts","score":0.6570000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coastal-resilience","display_name":"coastal resilience","score":0.5870000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/guangdong-hong-kong-macao-greater-bay-area","display_name":"Greater Bay Area","score":0.8970000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-adaptation","display_name":"climate change adaptation","score":0.5339999794960022}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154261466","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1542312","display_name":"Coastal erosion","level":3,"score":0.8073999881744385},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152382732","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q468756","display_name":"Shore","level":2,"score":0.7782999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186594467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1429176","display_name":"Flooding (psychology)","level":2,"score":0.7091000080108643},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11693305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5138350","display_name":"Coastal flood","level":4,"score":0.6553999781608582},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.6351000070571899},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123157820","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q80026","display_name":"Erosion","level":2,"score":0.6029999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39463204","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5138356","display_name":"Coastal hazards","level":4,"score":0.5408999919891357},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.5401999950408936},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115880899","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1124247","display_name":"Bay","level":2,"score":0.490200012922287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24518262","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16197023","display_name":"Threatened species","level":3,"score":0.415800005197525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.38989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139146106","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1749926","display_name":"Beach nourishment","level":3,"score":0.382099986076355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778900803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1316027","display_name":"Coastal management","level":2,"score":0.3817000091075897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.3725000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76886044","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2883300","display_name":"Hydrology (agriculture)","level":2,"score":0.3625999987125397},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49261128","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132455","display_name":"Hazard","level":2,"score":0.3589000105857849},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206700591","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1408124","display_name":"Siltation","level":3,"score":0.351500004529953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74880916","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q128140","display_name":"Plage","level":3,"score":0.33399999141693115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777774347","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q841083","display_name":"Sea level rise","level":3,"score":0.32420000433921814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74501621","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q125465","display_name":"Sea level","level":2,"score":0.31700000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137176749","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4105337","display_name":"Psychological resilience","level":2,"score":0.3077999949455261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74256435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q134052","display_name":"Flood myth","level":2,"score":0.29649999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100970517","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52107","display_name":"Physical geography","level":1,"score":0.2892000079154968},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777230293","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23579818","display_name":"Cumulative effects","level":2,"score":0.289000004529953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779585090","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3457762","display_name":"Resilience (materials science)","level":2,"score":0.2770000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114990195","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1430548","display_name":"Effects of global warming","level":4,"score":0.27469998598098755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22818535","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121742","display_name":"Storm surge","level":3,"score":0.2646999955177307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185734153","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31566","display_name":"Coastal plain","level":2,"score":0.26249998807907104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148043351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4456944","display_name":"Current (fluid)","level":2,"score":0.25929999351501465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.2565000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.2538999915122986}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/esp.70245","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70245","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70245","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S92316360","display_name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","issn_l":"0197-9337","issn":["0197-9337","0360-1269","1096-9837","1931-8065"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","jufo-2","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:ira.lib.polyu.edu.hk:10397/118235","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10397/118235","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400205","display_name":"PolyU Institutional Research Archive (Hong Kong Polytechnic University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I14243506","host_organization_name":"Hong Kong Polytechnic University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I14243506"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Journal/Magazine Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":1.0,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"},{"display_name":"Sustainable cities and communities","score":0.5142999887466431,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/11"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":0.6250527501106262,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G238395566","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"42501158","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4489137097","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"P0056768","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322598","funder_display_name":"Hong Kong Polytechnic University"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322598","display_name":"Hong Kong Polytechnic University","ror":"https://ror.org/0030zas98"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":56,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1488295964","https://openalex.org/W1515390117","https://openalex.org/W1529744883","https://openalex.org/W1950056452","https://openalex.org/W1970351497","https://openalex.org/W1973132854","https://openalex.org/W1981532962","https://openalex.org/W1986659988","https://openalex.org/W2009916482","https://openalex.org/W2011123032","https://openalex.org/W2029388643","https://openalex.org/W2035021095","https://openalex.org/W2062766643","https://openalex.org/W2089696832","https://openalex.org/W2106408385","https://openalex.org/W2125270629","https://openalex.org/W2145968240","https://openalex.org/W2181230729","https://openalex.org/W2466352567","https://openalex.org/W2581330866","https://openalex.org/W2583191045","https://openalex.org/W2589590528","https://openalex.org/W2781594196","https://openalex.org/W2793784625","https://openalex.org/W2801765526","https://openalex.org/W2807956304","https://openalex.org/W2885697057","https://openalex.org/W2886357179","https://openalex.org/W2888493296","https://openalex.org/W2891818598","https://openalex.org/W2944017778","https://openalex.org/W2947043668","https://openalex.org/W2950507371","https://openalex.org/W2980079473","https://openalex.org/W3010403880","https://openalex.org/W3015926174","https://openalex.org/W3040829419","https://openalex.org/W3046153628","https://openalex.org/W3112690790","https://openalex.org/W3120038203","https://openalex.org/W3128371590","https://openalex.org/W3135356637","https://openalex.org/W3185262102","https://openalex.org/W3186473564","https://openalex.org/W3187657176","https://openalex.org/W4205394663","https://openalex.org/W4206813066","https://openalex.org/W4211256659","https://openalex.org/W4301356660","https://openalex.org/W4309337725","https://openalex.org/W4317601986","https://openalex.org/W4362641205","https://openalex.org/W4385438681","https://openalex.org/W4394787398","https://openalex.org/W4399427630","https://openalex.org/W4404194691"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Shoreline":[1],"erosion":[2,37,80,111,124,211],"and":[3,15,46,50,81,83,91,112,145,161,168,187,202,212,219],"coastal":[4,23,75,165,213,231],"flooding":[5,52,214],"are":[6,106,157,173,189],"two":[7],"major":[8],"hazards":[9],"causing":[10],"significant":[11],"losses":[12],"of":[13,34,62,78,88,154,164,196,209],"life":[14],"property":[16],"in":[17,180],"a":[18,149],"warming":[19],"climate.":[20],"To":[21],"enhance":[22],"resilience":[24],"against":[25],"climate":[26],"change,":[27],"this":[28],"study":[29,205],"offers":[30],"an":[31],"integrated":[32],"assessment":[33],"long\u2010term":[35],"shoreline":[36,40,79,123,210],"(the":[38],"combined":[39],"retreats":[41],"driven":[42],"by":[43,56,159],"ambient":[44],"dynamics":[45],"sea":[47,64,120],"level":[48],"rise)":[49],"potential":[51],"risk":[53],"(PFR,":[54],"quantified":[55],"the":[57,73,85,98,130,178,193],"annual":[58],"cumulative":[59],"exceedance":[60],"hours":[61,139],"extreme":[63],"levels)":[65],"along":[66,129,170,215],"China's":[67,103,181,216],"sandy":[68,104,155,171,217],"beaches.":[69],"We":[70],"further":[71],"examine":[72],"concurrent":[74],"hazard":[76],"(CCH)":[77],"PFR,":[82],"evaluate":[84],"associated":[86],"exposure":[87,197],"physical":[89,166,200],"assets":[90,167,201],"population.":[92,203],"Our":[93],"findings":[94],"suggest":[95],"that":[96],"under":[97],"high":[99],"emission":[100],"scenario":[101],"SSP5\u20138.5,":[102],"beaches":[105,172],"projected":[107,134,190],"to":[108,117,135,141,175,191,223],"experience":[109,136],"intensified":[110],"elevated":[113],"PFRs,":[114],"primarily":[115],"attributable":[116],"rising":[118],"mean":[119],"levels.":[121],"Moreover,":[122],"is":[125],"proportionally":[126],"more":[127,151],"prevalent":[128],"southern":[131],"coasts.":[132],"Coastlines":[133],"fewer":[137],"PFR":[138],"tend":[140],"exhibit":[142],"higher":[143],"severity,":[144],"vice":[146],"versa.":[147],"As":[148],"result,":[150],"than":[152],"65%":[153],"shorelines":[156],"threatened":[158],"CCH,":[160],"over":[162],"80%":[163],"populations":[169],"exposed":[174],"CCH.":[176],"Among":[177],"cities":[179],"Greater":[182],"Bay":[183],"Area,":[184],"Hong":[185],"Kong":[186],"Shenzhen":[188],"face":[192],"highest":[194],"levels":[195],"for":[198],"both":[199],"This":[204],"identifies":[206],"future":[207],"hotspots":[208],"coastlines":[218],"provides":[220],"scientific":[221],"evidence":[222],"support":[224],"adaptation":[225],"strategies":[226],"aimed":[227],"at":[228],"mitigating":[229],"climate\u2010induced":[230],"hazards.":[232]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-02T10:15:12.560889","created_date":"2026-01-13T00:00:00"}