{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7117452003","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bdkcse67969.2025.11300526","title":"Predicting the Impact of a Vulnerability with Markov Chains","display_name":"Predicting the Impact of a Vulnerability with Markov Chains","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-11-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7117452003","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bdkcse67969.2025.11300526"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/bdkcse67969.2025.11300526","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bdkcse67969.2025.11300526","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bdkcse67969.2025.11300526","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407106710","display_name":"International Conference on Big Data, Knowledge and Control Systems Engineering (BdKCSE)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"conference"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2025 International Conference on Big Data, Knowledge and Control Systems Engineering (BdKCSE)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"volume":null,"type":"conference-paper","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5060281435","display_name":"Willian A. Dimitrov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5348-4948","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5348-4948"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190032430","display_name":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies","ror":"https://ror.org/001nkz398","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Willian Dimitrov","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066195352","display_name":"Tanya Ostrovska","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190032430","display_name":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies","ror":"https://ror.org/001nkz398","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tanya Ostrovska","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5121443791","display_name":"Valentin Ruzhenov","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190032430","display_name":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies","ror":"https://ror.org/001nkz398","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Valentin Ruzhenov","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5121512077","display_name":"Alexander Kirkov","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190032430","display_name":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies","ror":"https://ror.org/001nkz398","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alexander Kirkov","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022490688","display_name":"Yoana Hadzhiyska","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6077-0481","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6077-0481"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190032430","display_name":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies","ror":"https://ror.org/001nkz398","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yoana Hadzhiyska","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Sciences,Sofia,Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077041830","display_name":"Svetlana Syarova","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5892-3615","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5892-3615"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190032430","display_name":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies","ror":"https://ror.org/001nkz398","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Svetlana Syarova","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Science,Sofia,Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Library Studies and Information Technologies,Computer Science,Sofia,Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190032430"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1","last_page":"7"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10734","display_name":"Information and Cyber Security","score":0.6913999915122986,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10734","display_name":"Information and Cyber Security","score":0.6913999915122986,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12479","display_name":"Web Application Security Vulnerabilities","score":0.2694999873638153,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10400","display_name":"Network Security and Intrusion Detection","score":0.016300000250339508,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1705","display_name":"Computer Networks and Communications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/markov-chains","display_name":"Markov chains","score":0.9599999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/threat-intelligence","display_name":"threat intelligence","score":0.9940000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software-vulnerabilities","display_name":"software vulnerabilities","score":0.6209999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cyberattack-prevention","display_name":"cyberattack prevention","score":0.6460000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software-security","display_name":"software security","score":0.3790000081062317}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165696696","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11287","display_name":"Exploit","level":2,"score":0.7318000197410583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6754000186920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6585000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98763669","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176645","display_name":"Markov chain","level":2,"score":0.6244999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95713431","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q631425","display_name":"Vulnerability (computing)","level":2,"score":0.5863999724388123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.4187999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159886148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176645","display_name":"Markov process","level":2,"score":0.40790000557899475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167063184","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1400839","display_name":"Vulnerability assessment","level":3,"score":0.3928000032901764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3919000029563904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.3785000145435333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777904410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7397","display_name":"Software","level":2,"score":0.3725999891757965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3499999940395355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.3142000138759613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163836022","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6771326","display_name":"Markov model","level":3,"score":0.3109999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111350023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1191869","display_name":"Markov chain Monte Carlo","level":3,"score":0.29829999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.2944999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155846161","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1143367","display_name":"Graphical model","level":2,"score":0.27399998903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.27160000801086426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17098449","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176814","display_name":"Partially observable Markov decision process","level":4,"score":0.2662999927997589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.26440000534057617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79897977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054568","display_name":"Causal chain","level":2,"score":0.2599000036716461}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/bdkcse67969.2025.11300526","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bdkcse67969.2025.11300526","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bdkcse67969.2025.11300526","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407106710","display_name":"International Conference on Big Data, Knowledge and Control Systems Engineering (BdKCSE)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"conference"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2025 International Conference on Big Data, Knowledge and Control Systems Engineering (BdKCSE)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":15,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2010685537","https://openalex.org/W2031571299","https://openalex.org/W2119463329","https://openalex.org/W2154554798","https://openalex.org/W2321764960","https://openalex.org/W2325063082","https://openalex.org/W2496413842","https://openalex.org/W2919392347","https://openalex.org/W3002010908","https://openalex.org/W3203768218","https://openalex.org/W4235646468","https://openalex.org/W4255278793","https://openalex.org/W4386620197","https://openalex.org/W4390939204","https://openalex.org/W4410020352"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4404756345","https://openalex.org/W2909507365","https://openalex.org/W7072087574","https://openalex.org/W80788766","https://openalex.org/W7021220375","https://openalex.org/W2739036510","https://openalex.org/W2940636310","https://openalex.org/W4411436444","https://openalex.org/W4253478377","https://openalex.org/W7166558844"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,22,34],"article":[1],"presents":[2],"an":[3],"approach":[4,97],"for":[5,40,61],"threat":[6],"intelligence":[7],"based":[8],"on":[9,25],"Markov":[10],"chain":[11],"probabilities.":[12],"Three":[13],"basic":[14],"atomic":[15],"use":[16],"cases":[17],"heuristically":[18],"designed":[19],"are":[20],"presented.":[21],"research":[23],"focuses":[24],"the":[26,41,45,56,70,73,79,93,96],"probabilities":[27],"of":[28,43,48,58,69,72,76,81,92,95],"vulnerabilities":[29],"that":[30],"have":[31],"known":[32],"exploits.":[33],"paper":[35],"aims":[36],"to":[37,84],"present":[38],"evidence":[39],"possibility":[42],"predicting":[44],"probabilistic":[46],"behaviour":[47],"a":[49,59,63,89],"software":[50],"application":[51,94],"or":[52],"its":[53],"module":[54],"after":[55],"discovery":[57],"vulnerability":[60],"which":[62],"publicly":[64],"available":[65],"exploit":[66],"exists.":[67],"Knowledge":[68],"distribution":[71],"equilibrium":[74],"vector":[75],"states":[77],"enables":[78],"implementation":[80],"preemptive":[82],"measures":[83],"protect":[85],"against":[86],"cyberattacks.":[87],"Contains":[88],"brief":[90],"analysis":[91],"technique":[98],"and":[99],"recommendations.":[100]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2025-12-29T00:00:00"}
