{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7096173142","doi":null,"title":"PERSPECTIVES The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment","display_name":"PERSPECTIVES The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-03-17","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7096173142"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.183.6781","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.183.6781","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/moss_nature_2010.pdf","raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Richard H. Moss","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Richard H. Moss","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113672460","display_name":"JAE EDMONDS","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jae A. Edmonds","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028171286","display_name":"Kathy A. Hibbard","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kathy A. Hibbard","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Martin R. Manning","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Martin R. Manning","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Steven K. Rose","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Steven K. Rose","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082748474","display_name":"Detlef Peter van Vuuren","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0398-2831","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0398-2831"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Detlef P. Van Vuuren","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Timothy R. Carter","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Timothy R. Carter","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001432662","display_name":"Seita Emori","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9949-5167","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9949-5167"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Seita Emori","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113926299","display_name":"Mikiko Kainuma","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mikiko Kainuma","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066635961","display_name":"Tom Kram","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tom Kram","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5088846266","display_name":"Gerald A. Meehl","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8760-9534","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8760-9534"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gerald A. Meehl","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"John F. B. Mitchell","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John F. B. Mitchell","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Nebojsa Nakicenovic","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nebojsa Nakicenovic","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035238849","display_name":"Keywan Riahi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Keywan Riahi","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Steven J. Smith","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Steven J. Smith","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Ronald J. Stouffer","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ronald J. Stouffer","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Allison M. Thomson","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Allison M. Thomson","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036244319","display_name":"John P. Weyant","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1001-484X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1001-484X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John P. Weyant","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113800878","display_name":"Thomas J. Wilbanks","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Thomas J. Wilbanks","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.553524,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":true,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.4749000072479248,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.4749000072479248,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10471","display_name":"Climate Change Policy and Economics","score":0.4147999882698059,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10119","display_name":"Sustainability and Climate Change Governance","score":0.06030000001192093,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-scenarios","display_name":"climate change scenarios","score":0.9589999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/future-scenarios","display_name":"future scenarios","score":0.5350000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-mitigation","display_name":"climate change mitigation","score":0.8149999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-adaptation","display_name":"climate change adaptation","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/socio-economic-conditions","display_name":"socioeconomic conditions","score":0.39399999380111694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/greenhouse-gas-emissions","display_name":"greenhouse gas emissions","score":0.9539999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/radiative-forcing","display_name":"radiative forcing","score":0.75},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-climate-interactions","display_name":"human-climate interactions","score":0.5910000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-assessment","display_name":"climate change assessment","score":0.3580000102519989}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.7857999801635742},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47737302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q167336","display_name":"Greenhouse gas","level":2,"score":0.557699978351593},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107826830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929380","display_name":"Environmental resource management","level":1,"score":0.5509999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147513830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5938602","display_name":"Human systems engineering","level":2,"score":0.46320000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80368990","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3046459","display_name":"Earth system science","level":2,"score":0.4458000063896179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.42800000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.4212999939918518},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96240277","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5333237","display_name":"Ecological forecasting","level":4,"score":0.4138000011444092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3970000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91375879","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15473274","display_name":"Environmental planning","level":1,"score":0.39070001244544983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776608160","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4785462","display_name":"Natural (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.35030001401901245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2994067962","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3509184","display_name":"Climate system","level":3,"score":0.34880000352859497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.3407999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986440788","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climate science","level":3,"score":0.3294000029563904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137851953","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q41560","display_name":"Greenhouse effect","level":4,"score":0.3228999972343445},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189123395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7210295","display_name":"Political economy of climate change","level":3,"score":0.3174000084400177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199491958","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q737514","display_name":"Global change","level":3,"score":0.305400013923645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2988944679","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7937","display_name":"Global climate","level":3,"score":0.3027999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.2978000044822693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39820584","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q125928","display_name":"Climate pattern","level":3,"score":0.2915000021457672},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114990195","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1430548","display_name":"Effects of global warming","level":4,"score":0.2775000035762787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48999079","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5133511","display_name":"Climate commitment","level":5,"score":0.2606000006198883}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.183.6781","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.183.6781","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/moss_nature_2010.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.361.490","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.361.490","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/envs501/downloads/Moss et al. 2010.pdf","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":1.0,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2309180513","https://openalex.org/W2038122823","https://openalex.org/W7100485567","https://openalex.org/W1857179067","https://openalex.org/W1976005953","https://openalex.org/W4410126080","https://openalex.org/W2781356286","https://openalex.org/W1971628052","https://openalex.org/W2018861684","https://openalex.org/W4293791552"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Advances":[0],"in":[1,54,65,74,197],"the":[2,15,37,46,49,84,89,93,125,149,159,166,170,179,193],"science":[3],"and":[4,22,28,39,69,78,115,117,132,152,174,177,183,202,209],"observation":[5],"of":[6,14,18,33,48,77,86,88,96,127,148,165,169,191,206],"climate":[7,20,34,81,112,156,171],"change":[8,35,113,157],"are":[9],"providing":[10],"a":[11,138],"clearer":[12],"understanding":[13,164],"inherent":[16],"variability":[17],"Earth\u2019s":[19],"system":[21,51],"its":[23],"likely":[24],"response":[25,47,98],"to":[26,52,80,91,145],"human":[27,175],"natural":[29],"influences.":[30],"The":[31],"implications":[32],"for":[36,141],"environment":[38],"society":[40],"will":[41],"depend":[42],"not":[43,105],"only":[44],"on":[45,59,120],"Earth":[50],"changes":[53,64],"radiative":[55],"forcings,":[56],"but":[57],"also":[58],"how":[60,192],"humankind":[61],"responds":[62],"through":[63],"technology,":[66],"economies,":[67],"lifestyle":[68],"policy.":[70],"Extensive":[71],"uncertainties":[72],"exist":[73],"future":[75,90,194],"forcings":[76],"responses":[79],"change,":[82],"necessitating":[83],"use":[85],"scenarios":[87,103,144,187],"explore":[92],"potential":[94],"consequences":[95],"different":[97],"options.":[99],"To":[100,162],"date,":[101],"such":[102,110],"have":[104,118],"adequately":[106],"examined":[107],"crucial":[108],"possibilities,":[109],"as":[111],"mitigation":[114],"adaptation,":[116],"relied":[119],"research":[121,180],"processes":[122],"that":[123],"slowed":[124],"exchange":[126],"information":[128],"among":[129],"physical,":[130],"biological":[131],"social":[133],"scientists.":[134],"Here":[135],"we":[136],"describe":[137],"new":[139],"process":[140],"creating":[142],"plausible":[143,189],"investigate":[146],"some":[147],"most":[150],"challenging":[151],"important":[153],"questions":[154],"about":[155],"confronting":[158],"global":[160],"community.":[161],"improve":[163],"complex":[167],"interactions":[168],"system,":[172],"ecosystems,":[173],"activities":[176],"conditions,":[178,204],"community":[181],"develops":[182],"uses":[184],"scenarios.":[185],"These":[186],"provide":[188],"descriptions":[190],"might":[195],"unfold":[196],"several":[198],"key":[199],"areas\u2014socioeconomic,":[200],"technological":[201],"environmental":[203],"emissions":[205],"greenhouse":[207],"gases":[208]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2025-10-27T00:00:00"}
