{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7061994034","doi":null,"title":"Short-term forecasting in intraday electricity markets using machine learning models","display_name":"Short-term forecasting in intraday electricity markets using machine learning models","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-06-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7061994034"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:aaltodoc.aalto.fi:123456789/136993","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/136993","pdf_url":"https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/bitstreams/38ce08f5-f1e9-4ea9-8737-165cf7ec54fd/download","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401662","display_name":"Aaltodoc (Aalto University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I9927081","host_organization_name":"Aalto University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9927081"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"G1 Kandidaatinty\u00f6"},"volume":null,"type":"dissertation","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/bitstreams/38ce08f5-f1e9-4ea9-8737-165cf7ec54fd/download","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Takaneva, Jonna","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Takaneva, Jonna","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":true,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.003100000089034438,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10424","display_name":"Electric Power System Optimization","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-market","display_name":"electricity market","score":0.5519999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/finnish-electricity-market","display_name":"Finnish electricity market","score":0.8610000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lstm","display_name":"LSTM","score":0.6119999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/xgboost","display_name":"XGBoost","score":0.9950000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"probabilistic forecasting","score":0.9800000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-estimation","display_name":"uncertainty estimation","score":0.8479999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/renewable-energy-integration","display_name":"renewable energy integration","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-demand-patterns","display_name":"electricity demand patterns","score":0.6290000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/feature-analysis","display_name":"feature analysis","score":0.515999972820282}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.3222000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.2985999882221222},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776401178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12050496","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.2858999967575073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2822999954223633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144251240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7068229","display_name":"Nucleofection","level":4,"score":0.271699994802475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184773241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q387400","display_name":"Mains electricity","level":3,"score":0.26089999079704285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206658404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12725","display_name":"Electricity","level":2,"score":0.26010000705718994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182306322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779371","display_name":"Order (exchange)","level":2,"score":0.25519999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193809577","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409300","display_name":"Demand forecasting","level":2,"score":0.24770000576972961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.2476000040769577}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:aaltodoc.aalto.fi:123456789/136993","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/136993","pdf_url":"https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/bitstreams/38ce08f5-f1e9-4ea9-8737-165cf7ec54fd/download","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401662","display_name":"Aaltodoc (Aalto University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I9927081","host_organization_name":"Aalto University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9927081"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"G1 Kandidaatinty\u00f6"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:aaltodoc.aalto.fi:123456789/136993","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/136993","pdf_url":"https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/bitstreams/38ce08f5-f1e9-4ea9-8737-165cf7ec54fd/download","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401662","display_name":"Aaltodoc (Aalto University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I9927081","host_organization_name":"Aalto University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9927081"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"G1 Kandidaatinty\u00f6"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","score":0.9853000044822693,"display_name":"Affordable and clean energy"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7061994034.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7061994034.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":14,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2040870580","https://openalex.org/W2766228243","https://openalex.org/W2810469995","https://openalex.org/W2975391820","https://openalex.org/W2982079384","https://openalex.org/W2988274908","https://openalex.org/W2991596977","https://openalex.org/W3092276331","https://openalex.org/W4379742515","https://openalex.org/W4380047853","https://openalex.org/W4391260795","https://openalex.org/W4399638281","https://openalex.org/W4405012853","https://openalex.org/W4410540293"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W6995527725","https://openalex.org/W4408024514","https://openalex.org/W7014399568","https://openalex.org/W7028553040","https://openalex.org/W7135695506","https://openalex.org/W6991076026","https://openalex.org/W4399638281","https://openalex.org/W2777459046","https://openalex.org/W7065677612","https://openalex.org/W7116046928"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,199],"growing":[1],"integration":[2],"of":[3,16,24,29,44,237],"renewable":[4],"energy":[5],"sources,":[6],"such":[7],"as":[8,181,183],"wind":[9,189],"and":[10,31,40,88,133,149,177,195,205,232,257,265],"solar,":[11],"has":[12],"increased":[13,246],"the":[14,22,38,60,104,110,145,150,155,178,218],"importance":[15],"accurate":[17],"electricity":[18,95,107,196],"price":[19,73,112,148,153,168],"forecasting.":[20],"As":[21],"share":[23],"renewables":[25],"rises,":[26],"real-time":[27],"balancing":[28],"supply":[30,193],"demand":[32,197],"becomes":[33],"more":[34],"complex":[35],"due":[36],"to":[37,55,65,69,81,120,140,164,228],"intermittent":[39],"less":[41],"predictable":[42],"nature":[43],"these":[45],"sources.":[46],"Intraday":[47],"markets":[48],"offer":[49],"a":[50,114,222,263],"mechanism":[51],"for":[52,78,187],"market":[53,62,79,116],"participants":[54,80],"adjust":[56],"their":[57,247],"positions":[58],"after":[59],"day-ahead":[61],"closes,":[63],"helping":[64],"manage":[66,89],"imbalances":[67],"closer":[68],"delivery.":[70],"Accurate":[71],"intraday":[72,106,175],"forecasts":[74],"are":[75],"therefore":[76],"useful":[77],"optimize":[82],"trading":[83],"strategies,":[84],"reduce":[85],"imbalance":[86],"costs":[87],"operational":[90],"risk":[91],"in":[92,103,211,254],"increasingly":[93],"dynamic":[94],"markets.":[96],"This":[97],"thesis":[98],"focuses":[99],"on":[100],"forecasting":[101,122,212],"prices":[102,176],"Finnish":[105],"market,":[108],"specifically":[109],"ID3":[111,179],"index,":[113],"key":[115],"reference.":[117],"In":[118],"order":[119],"evaluate":[121],"effectiveness,":[123],"two":[124],"machine":[125],"learning":[126],"models,":[127],"Long":[128],"Short-Term":[129],"Memory":[130],"(LSTM)":[131],"networks":[132],"Extreme":[134],"Gradient":[135],"Boosting":[136],"(XGBoost),":[137],"were":[138,234],"compared":[139],"naive":[141,215,219],"benchmark":[142],"methods,":[143,216],"including":[144],"latest":[146],"trade":[147],"volume-weighted":[151],"average":[152],"from":[154],"prior":[156,174],"half":[157],"hour.":[158],"Feature":[159],"analysis":[160],"was":[161,226],"carried":[162],"out":[163],"identify":[165],"factors":[166],"influencing":[167],"formation,":[169],"showing":[170],"strong":[171,264],"correlations":[172],"between":[173],"price,":[180],"well":[182],"minor":[184],"contributions":[185],"from,":[186],"example,":[188],"generation":[190],"forecasts,":[191,240],"production":[192],"developments":[194],"patterns.":[198],"study":[200],"found":[201],"that":[202,225,245],"both":[203,255],"LSTM":[204,231,250],"XGBoost":[206,233,253,261],"models":[207,220],"provided":[208],"small":[209],"improvements":[210],"accuracy":[213],"over":[214],"although":[217],"established":[221],"high":[223],"baseline":[224],"difficult":[227],"surpass.":[229],"Importantly,":[230],"also":[235],"capable":[236],"generating":[238],"probabilistic":[239,258],"providing":[241],"valuable":[242],"uncertainty":[243],"estimates":[244],"practical":[248],"utility.":[249],"slightly":[251],"outperformed":[252],"point":[256],"forecasting,":[259],"while":[260],"remained":[262],"competitive":[266],"alternative.":[267]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}