{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7025480476","doi":null,"title":"When does making detailed predictions make predictions worse","display_name":"When does making detailed predictions make predictions worse","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-04-04","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7025480476"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:1a6e996c-cea0-46ac-8bff-56783244be61","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/h23re","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401127","display_name":"OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Project"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Joseph P. Simmons","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Joseph P. Simmons","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5015961275","display_name":"Theresa F. Kelly","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Theresa F. Kelly","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":true,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.5059000253677368,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.5059000253677368,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.4025999903678894,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10206","display_name":"Meta-analysis and systematic reviews","score":0.0035000001080334187,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-accuracy","display_name":"prediction accuracy","score":0.671999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overfitting","display_name":"overfitting","score":0.675000011920929}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.43459999561309814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.2565000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.2554999887943268},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.2451999932527542},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780009758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804172","display_name":"Measure (data warehouse)","level":2,"score":0.2387000024318695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99498987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2210247","display_name":"Noise (video)","level":3,"score":0.2379000037908554},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.23469999432563782},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112972136","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7595718","display_name":"Stability (learning theory)","level":2,"score":0.22910000383853912},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116834253","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2039217","display_name":"Identification (biology)","level":2,"score":0.22529999911785126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.21729999780654907}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:1a6e996c-cea0-46ac-8bff-56783244be61","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/h23re","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401127","display_name":"OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Project"},{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:E01F6-B11-A6F","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://api.osf.io/v2/nodes/h23re/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401127","display_name":"OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"project"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W36227095","https://openalex.org/W1469046834","https://openalex.org/W1984693961","https://openalex.org/W2017563734","https://openalex.org/W2032255348","https://openalex.org/W2034532433","https://openalex.org/W2055746913","https://openalex.org/W2062087879","https://openalex.org/W2110673754","https://openalex.org/W2115962615","https://openalex.org/W2121044470","https://openalex.org/W2126890981","https://openalex.org/W2127987812","https://openalex.org/W2128348355","https://openalex.org/W2141144529","https://openalex.org/W2144329849","https://openalex.org/W2146160975","https://openalex.org/W2171421397","https://openalex.org/W2171656628","https://openalex.org/W2187089918","https://openalex.org/W2242842357","https://openalex.org/W2249816796","https://openalex.org/W3122710704","https://openalex.org/W4238883502","https://openalex.org/W4292157289"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2907942268","https://openalex.org/W7061129166","https://openalex.org/W7051970630","https://openalex.org/W6995277720","https://openalex.org/W6962725681","https://openalex.org/W2808455903","https://openalex.org/W7172180251","https://openalex.org/W6986540224","https://openalex.org/W7014338317","https://openalex.org/W7110657183"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
