{"id":"https://openalex.org/W6929344890","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2507.23136","title":"Observational Multiplicity","display_name":"Observational Multiplicity","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-07-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W6929344890","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2507.23136"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2507.23136","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.23136","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.23136","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.23136","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"George, Erin","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36258959","display_name":"University of California San Diego","ror":"https://ror.org/0168r3w48","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36258959"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"George, Erin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics University of California , San Diego La Jolla , CA 92093 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics University of California , San Diego La Jolla , CA 92093 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36258959"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5024153474","display_name":"Deanna M. Needell","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8058-8638","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8058-8638"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36258959","display_name":"University of California San Diego","ror":"https://ror.org/0168r3w48","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36258959"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Needell, Deanna","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics University of California , San Diego La Jolla , CA 92093 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics University of California , San Diego La Jolla , CA 92093 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36258959"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040537492","display_name":"Berk Ustun","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5188-3155","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5188-3155"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161318765","display_name":"University of California, Los Angeles","ror":"https://ror.org/046rm7j60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36258959","display_name":"University of California San Diego","ror":"https://ror.org/0168r3w48","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36258959"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ustun, Berk","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science & Hal\u0131c\u0131o\u011flu Data Science Institute University of California , San Diego La Jolla , CA 92093 , USA","Department of Mathematics University of California , Los Angeles Los Angeles , CA 90095 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science & Hal\u0131c\u0131o\u011flu Data Science Institute University of California , San Diego La Jolla , CA 92093 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36258959"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics University of California , Los Angeles Los Angeles , CA 90095 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":true,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.5098000168800354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.5098000168800354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10883","display_name":"Ethics and Social Impacts of AI","score":0.1388999968767166,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12535","display_name":"Machine Learning and Data Classification","score":0.0949999988079071,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-classification","display_name":"probabilistic classification","score":0.9449999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regret","display_name":"regret","score":0.578000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interpretability","display_name":"interpretability","score":0.5600000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/safety","display_name":"safety","score":0.5640000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/abstention","display_name":"abstention","score":0.7730000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-collection","display_name":"data collection","score":0.7789999842643738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fairness","display_name":"fairness","score":0.3479999899864197}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50817715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79895177","display_name":"Regret","level":2,"score":0.8765000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781067378","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17027399","display_name":"Interpretability","level":2,"score":0.8370000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.7296000123023987},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95623464","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1096149","display_name":"Classifier (UML)","level":2,"score":0.5475000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5432999730110168},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777451423","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q629962","display_name":"Arbitrariness","level":2,"score":0.5393000245094299},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5152000188827515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780009758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804172","display_name":"Measure (data warehouse)","level":2,"score":0.45559999346733093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.4487000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.44020000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.37119999527931213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.34369999170303345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189119545","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5128022","display_name":"Probabilistic classification","level":4,"score":0.3409999907016754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.32739999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780522230","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1140419","display_name":"Ambiguity","level":2,"score":0.32199999690055847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777212361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5127848","display_name":"Class (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.3133000135421753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.2955999970436096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143017306","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3318133","display_name":"Probabilistic relevance model","level":4,"score":0.28519999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21031990","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q355020","display_name":"Probability measure","level":2,"score":0.28110000491142273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10347200","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1960297","display_name":"Hindsight bias","level":2,"score":0.27070000767707825}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2507.23136","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.23136","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.23136","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2507.23136","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2507.23136","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2507.23136","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2507.23136","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.23136","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.23136","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.4823444187641144,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2488694901","display_name":"Mathematical Sciences Research Institute (MSRI)","funder_award_id":"1928930","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G329468232","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"DMS-1928930","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337380","funder_display_name":"Division of Mathematical Sciences"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G441755652","display_name":"Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP)","funder_award_id":"2034835","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4663222005","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"1928930","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306151","funder_display_name":"Alfred P. Sloan Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4972001970","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"DMS-1928930","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306151","funder_display_name":"Alfred P. Sloan Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6019427330","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"1928930","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337380","funder_display_name":"Division of Mathematical Sciences"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6555392700","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2408912","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337380","funder_display_name":"Division of Mathematical Sciences"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6641031078","display_name":"Equity Beyond the Algorithm: A Mathematical Quest for Fairer-ness in Machine Learning","funder_award_id":"2408912","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7692653605","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"G-2021-16778","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306151","display_name":"Alfred P. Sloan Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/052csg198"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337380","display_name":"Division of Mathematical Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/051fftw81"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W6929344890.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W6929344890.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Many":[0],"prediction":[1],"tasks":[2,40],"can":[3,8,15,35,170],"admit":[4],"multiple":[5],"models":[6,22],"that":[7,47,148],"perform":[9],"almost":[10],"equally":[11],"well.":[12],"This":[13],"phenomenon":[14],"undermine":[16],"interpretability":[17],"and":[18,159,181],"safety":[19,175],"when":[20],"competing":[21],"assign":[23],"conflicting":[24],"predictions":[25,95,115],"to":[26,70,88,133,146,173],"individuals.":[27],"In":[28],"this":[29,55],"work,":[30],"we":[31,48,66],"study":[32],"how":[33,54,113,167],"arbitrariness":[34,91],"arise":[36],"in":[37,58,137,156,176],"probabilistic":[38,108,139],"classification":[39,109,140],"as":[41,121],"a":[42,59,68,79,103,117,122,130,138],"result":[43,123],"of":[44,62,81,92,99,105,116,124,163],"an":[45],"effect":[46,56],"call":[49],"\\emph{observational":[50],"multiplicity}.":[51],"We":[52,86,101,128,142,165],"discuss":[53,160],"arises":[57],"broad":[60],"class":[61],"practical":[63],"applications":[64,162,178],"where":[65],"learn":[67],"classifier":[69],"predict":[71],"probabilities":[72],"$p_i":[73],"\\in":[74,84],"[0,1]$":[75],"but":[76],"are":[77],"given":[78],"dataset":[80,158],"observations":[82],"$y_i":[83],"\\{0,1\\}$.":[85],"propose":[87],"evaluate":[89],"the":[90,97,114,135,157],"individual":[93],"probability":[94],"through":[96],"lens":[98],"\\emph{regret}.":[100],"introduce":[102],"measure":[104,145],"regret":[106,136,149,169],"for":[107,153],"tasks,":[110],"which":[111],"measures":[112],"model":[118],"could":[119],"change":[120],"different":[125],"training":[126],"labels.":[127],"present":[129],"general-purpose":[131],"method":[132],"estimate":[134],"task.":[141],"use":[143],"our":[144],"show":[147],"is":[150],"often":[151],"higher":[152],"certain":[154],"groups":[155],"potential":[161],"regret.":[164],"demonstrate":[166],"estimating":[168],"be":[171],"used":[172],"promote":[174],"real-world":[177],"by":[179],"abstention":[180],"data":[182],"collection.":[183]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-17T09:40:24.721904","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}