{"id":"https://openalex.org/W657931257","doi":null,"title":"Traffic forecasting risk: study update 2004","display_name":"Traffic forecasting risk: study update 2004","publication_year":2004,"publication_date":"2004-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W657931257","mag":"657931257"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"mag:657931257","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://trid.trb.org/view/841273","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5015553500","display_name":"R Bain","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0069-8475","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0069-8475"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"R Bain","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0069-8475","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011366014","display_name":"J Plantagie","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J Plantagie","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.0382,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":47,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.89630556,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":87,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.475600004196167,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.475600004196167,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10698","display_name":"Transportation Planning and Optimization","score":0.19470000267028809,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.07779999822378159,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/traffic-forecasting","display_name":"traffic prediction","score":0.8830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/toll-roads","display_name":"toll roads","score":0.9509999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/optimism-bias","display_name":"optimism bias","score":0.9570000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.7400000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/road-projects","display_name":"road projects","score":0.5230000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/project-performance","display_name":"project performance","score":0.33000001311302185}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778025104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408004","display_name":"Toll","level":2,"score":0.9415135383605957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776294082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7098963","display_name":"Optimism bias","level":3,"score":0.7560919523239136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778636371","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16939396","display_name":"Toll road","level":3,"score":0.6659326553344727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204017024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485446","display_name":"Optimism","level":2,"score":0.6651378870010376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22212356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775325","display_name":"Transport engineering","level":1,"score":0.5560577511787415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2985695025","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4323994","display_name":"Road traffic","level":2,"score":0.4710628390312195},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.29311949014663696},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.09141448140144348},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C54355233","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7162","display_name":"Genetics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"mag:657931257","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://trid.trb.org/view/841273","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1970450302","https://openalex.org/W7095180673","https://openalex.org/W7098939992","https://openalex.org/W7097646634","https://openalex.org/W617639976","https://openalex.org/W2158822318","https://openalex.org/W2074132241","https://openalex.org/W2612077353","https://openalex.org/W2266902758","https://openalex.org/W2965009103"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Traffic":[0],"forecasting":[1,28,85],"risk":[2],"research":[3],"published":[4],"in":[5],"2002":[6],"by":[7,79],"Standard":[8],"and":[9,66],"Poor":[10],"suggested":[11],"that":[12,58],"toll":[13,26,36,59,117],"road":[14,27,37,60,89],"forecasts":[15,45,62,114],"have":[16],"generally":[17],"overestimated":[18],"traffic":[19,44,61],"by20-30%.":[20],"A":[21],"2004":[22],"study":[23,78],"update":[24],"compared":[25,73],"performance":[29,86],"for":[30,47,103,116,121],"a":[31,77],"data":[32],"set":[33],"of":[34,43,76,94,113,128],"87":[35],"projects":[38,90],"with":[39,74],"the":[40,53,83,92,111,125],"predictive":[41],"record":[42],"made":[46],"toll-free":[48,122],"facilities.":[49],"The":[50,70],"results":[51,71],"supported":[52],"earlier":[54],"conclusion,":[55],"but":[56],"showed":[57],"incorporate":[63],"considerable":[64],"uncertainty":[65],"systematic":[67],"optimism":[68,104],"bias.":[69],"were":[72,99],"those":[75],"Flyvbjerg,":[80],"which":[81,95],"reviewed":[82],"year-one":[84],"from":[87],"183":[88],"around":[91],"world,":[93],"more":[96],"than":[97],"90%":[98],"toll-free.":[100],"After":[101],"adjusting":[102],"bias,":[105],"there":[106],"was":[107],"little":[108],"difference":[109],"between":[110],"accuracy":[112],"prepared":[115,120],"roads":[118],"andthose":[119],"roads.":[123],"For":[124],"covering":[126],"entry":[127],"this":[129],"conference":[130],"please":[131],"see":[132],"ITRD":[133],"E132365":[134]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":7}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}