{"id":"https://openalex.org/W64157143","doi":null,"title":"On the Death of the Phillips Curve","display_name":"On the Death of the Phillips Curve","publication_year":2002,"publication_date":"2002-09-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W64157143","mag":"64157143"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"mag:64157143","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cto:journl:v:22:y:2002:i:2:p:193-198","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S147728512","display_name":"Cato Journal","issn_l":"0273-3072","issn":["0273-3072","1943-3468"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-3"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315727","host_organization_name":"Cato Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315727"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cato Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Cato Journal","raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044877384","display_name":"William A. Niskanen","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"William A. Niskanen","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5044877384"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.2736,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":30,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91135143,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"22","issue":"2","first_page":"193","last_page":"198"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9609000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9609000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13399","display_name":"Unemployment and Economic Growth","score":0.0364999994635582,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11742","display_name":"Economic Theory and Policy","score":0.0007999999797903001,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/phillips-curve","display_name":"Phillips curve","score":0.9879999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nairu","display_name":"NAIRU","score":0.7919999957084656}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778774626","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q220841","display_name":"Phillips curve","level":3,"score":0.9506586194038391},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775969135","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1533767","display_name":"NAIRU","level":4,"score":0.8883200287818909},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.8465037941932678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778126366","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q41171","display_name":"Unemployment","level":2,"score":0.794533371925354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155508913","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1200411","display_name":"Misery index","level":4,"score":0.7767679691314697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.6847607493400574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.6007527709007263},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C68286588","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q384136","display_name":"Full employment","level":3,"score":0.48818713426589966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154815372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1140421","display_name":"Real interest rate","level":3,"score":0.47915905714035034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4396747648715973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.41966769099235535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175025494","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179179","display_name":"Interest rate","level":2,"score":0.41463056206703186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.4010833203792572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"mag:64157143","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cto:journl:v:22:y:2002:i:2:p:193-198","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S147728512","display_name":"Cato Journal","issn_l":"0273-3072","issn":["0273-3072","1943-3468"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-3"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315727","host_organization_name":"Cato Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315727"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cato Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Cato Journal","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","score":0.7099999785423279,"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7097708965","https://openalex.org/W7086768827","https://openalex.org/W66747347","https://openalex.org/W7095631307","https://openalex.org/W7155665374","https://openalex.org/W7103139339","https://openalex.org/W4254551373","https://openalex.org/W1971628969","https://openalex.org/W3163124059","https://openalex.org/W2076301377"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"There":[0],"is":[1,34,67,153,344,373,560],"no":[2,319],"evidence":[3],"of":[4,23,38,45,53,81,112,211,214,222,235,242,255,313,332,341,380,390,441,494,508,575],"a":[5,9,35,43,46,77,126,137,259,279,324,370,381,414,420,454,504,528,546,572,632],"Phillips":[6,124,166,299,325,382,409,443],"curve":[7,167,300,326,383,410,444],"showing":[8],"tradeoff":[10,156],"between":[11,56,98,130,157,172,457],"unemployment":[12,24,32,57,131,159,215,223,274,334,356,459,473,510,533,576,588],"and":[13,58,71,100,114,132,161,178,192,216,227,273,335,358,419,449,461,512,627],"inflation.":[14,217,495],"The":[15,95,165,339,378,428,586,607],"function":[16,37],"for":[17,91,121,196,245,293,327,364,417,431,530,590,618],"estimating":[18],"the":[19,31,39,54,65,122,143,149,158,162,169,173,179,184,194,209,212,220,233,243,246,251,256,264,277,298,303,307,310,314,328,351,355,359,365,391,394,408,432,439,442,458,462,465,472,483,509,513,516,520,531,543,583,604,610],"non-accelerating":[20],"inflation":[21,40,59,79,133,163,253,272,336,360,466,484,517,544,584,605],"rate":[22,33,41,80,160,357,361,460,474,485,493,511,518,534,559],"(NAIRU)":[25],"has":[26,570],"been":[27,89,571],"incorrectly":[28],"formulated.":[29],"Indeed,":[30],"positive":[36],"with":[42,148,323,579,600],"lag":[44],"year":[47,363],"or":[48],"two.":[49],"An":[50],"alternative":[51],"formulation":[52,469,525],"relation":[55,85,129,206,371,456,507,624],"leads":[60],"to":[61,87,230,250,266,283,301,375,412,423,479,490,527,595,614,625,634],"an":[62,154,290,480,540,615],"estimate":[63],"that":[64,151,198,202,207,248,281,372,471,535,550,557,568],"NAIRU":[66,433,611],"about":[68,561,609],"3.7":[69],"percent":[70,597],"can":[72],"only":[73],"be":[74,284,385,397,413,488,537],"achieved":[75],"by":[76,118,346,362,399,445,549],"sustained":[78],"zero.":[82],"Moreover,":[83],"this":[84,190,205,237,267,342,402,558,623],"appears":[86],"have":[88,107,296,621],"stable":[90],"over":[92,519],"four":[93,522],"decades.":[94,523],"Simple":[96],"Relation":[97],"Unemployment":[99],"Inflation":[101],"For":[102,136],"several":[103],"decades":[104],"now,":[105],"macroeconomists":[106],"confused":[108],"each":[109],"other,":[110],"generations":[111],"students,":[113],"too":[115],"many":[116],"policymakers":[117,199],"their":[119],"search":[120,292,343,529,617],"elusive":[123],"curve,":[125],"presumed":[127,403],"negative":[128,455,506],"(Phillips":[134],"1958).":[135],"while,":[138],"U.S.":[139,587],"data":[140,353,395],"beginning":[141],"in":[142,183,276,393,401,464,477,482,515,542,582,603],"late":[144],"1950s":[145],"seemed":[146,225],"consistent":[147,322,578],"hypothesis":[150],"there":[152,317,500,569],"inherent":[155],"rate.":[164,467,585,606],"became":[168],"critical":[170],"link":[171],"nominal":[174],"(current":[175],"dollar)":[176],"variables":[177,182],"real":[180],"(inflation-adjusted)":[181],"new":[185],"macroeconomic":[186],"models":[187],"developed":[188],"during":[189],"period":[191],"was":[193,309,318,438,501],"basis":[195,416],"recommendations":[197],"should":[200,384],"choose":[201],"point":[203],"on":[204,263,354],"minimizes":[208],"sum":[210],"costs":[213],"And":[218],"since":[219,598],"cost":[221,234],"always":[224],"larger":[226],"more":[228,435],"urgent":[229],"reduce":[231],"than":[232],"inflation,":[236],"perspective":[238],"contributed":[239],"some":[240],"part":[241],"rationalization":[244],"policies":[247],"led":[249,526,613],"higher":[252],"rates":[254,577],"1970s.":[257],"But":[258,316],"strange":[260],"thing":[261],"happened":[262],"road":[265],"social":[268],"engineering":[269],"nirvana:":[270],"Both":[271],"increased":[275],"1970s,":[278],"condition":[280],"came":[282],"described":[285,548],"as":[286,453,631],"stagflation.":[287],"This":[288,468,524],"provoked":[289],"unproductive":[291,616],"what":[294,619],"might":[295],"caused":[297,622],"shift;":[302],"favorite":[304],"explanation":[305,321],"at":[306,502],"time":[308],"oil":[311],"shock":[312],"mid-1970s.":[315],"obvious":[320],"nearly":[329],"continuous":[330],"reduction":[331],"both":[333],"after":[337],"1982.":[338],"futility":[340],"illustrated":[345],"Figure":[347,497,554],"1,":[348],"which":[349],"presents":[350],"raw":[352],"years":[366],"1960":[367],"through":[368],"2001,":[369],"close":[374],"white":[376],"noise.":[377],"concept":[379],"considered":[386],"empty":[387],"when":[388],"most":[389],"variation":[392,602],"must":[396],"explained":[398],"shifts":[400],"relation.":[404],"In":[405],"any":[406,491],"case,":[407],"proved":[411],"poor":[415],"forecasting":[418],"worse":[421],"guide":[422,633],"policy.":[424,635],"[FIGURE":[425],"1":[426],"OMITTED]":[427],"Elusive":[429],"Search":[430],"A":[434],"productive":[436],"development":[437],"reformulation":[440],"Ed":[446],"Phelps":[447],"(1967)":[448],"Milton":[450],"Friedman":[451],"(1968)":[452],"change":[463,514,581],"implies":[470],"would":[475,487],"decline":[476],"response":[478],"increase":[481,541],"but":[486,564],"invariant":[489],"steady-state":[492],"As":[496],"2":[498,555],"illustrates,":[499],"least":[503],"weak":[505],"past":[521],"lowest":[532],"could":[536],"maintained":[538],"without":[539],"rate,":[545,589],"number":[547],"dreadful":[551],"acronym":[552],"NAIRU.":[553],"suggests":[556],"6":[562,596],"percent,":[563],"it":[565],"also":[566,612],"reveals":[567],"wide":[573],"range":[574],"little":[580,601],"example,":[591],"ranged":[592],"from":[593],"4":[594],"1994":[599],"uncertainty":[608],"may":[620],"shift":[626],"reduced":[628],"its":[629],"value":[630],"\u2026":[636]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
