{"id":"https://openalex.org/W565243635","doi":null,"title":"The uncertainty of forecasts","display_name":"The uncertainty of forecasts","publication_year":2004,"publication_date":"2004-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W565243635","mag":"565243635"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"mag:565243635","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://trid.trb.org/view/746801","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764452690","display_name":"Public roads","issn_l":"0033-3735","issn":["0033-3735"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4365922605","host_organization_name":"U.S. Federal Highway Administration","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4365922605"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["U.S. Federal Highway Administration"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Public roads","raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5076786124","display_name":"John S. Miller","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3703-9462","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3703-9462"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"John S. Miller","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3703-9462","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5076786124"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.518,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":4,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9152918,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":"68","issue":"2","first_page":"62","last_page":"67"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10698","display_name":"Transportation Planning and Optimization","score":0.9160000085830688,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10698","display_name":"Transportation Planning and Optimization","score":0.9160000085830688,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12725","display_name":"transportation and logistics systems","score":0.03319999948143959,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.02449999935925007,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transportation-forecasting","display_name":"transportation forecasting","score":0.7170000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-uncertainty","display_name":"forecast uncertainty","score":0.8519999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/long-range-transportation-planning","display_name":"long-range transportation planning","score":0.9570000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/socio-economic-trends","display_name":"socio-economic trends","score":0.718999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/travel-demand","display_name":"travel demand","score":0.8309999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mode-choice","display_name":"mode choice","score":0.9760000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/historical-data","display_name":"historical data","score":0.36500000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.6639999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virginia","display_name":"Virginia","score":0.8970000147819519}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89246107","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1398821","display_name":"Rule of thumb","level":2,"score":0.6401834487915039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63882131","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17122954","display_name":"Strengths and weaknesses","level":2,"score":0.5767563581466675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22212356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775325","display_name":"Transport engineering","level":1,"score":0.547889769077301},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.4679742157459259},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.46651116013526917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39118121","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1034047","display_name":"Transportation planning","level":2,"score":0.4509696960449219},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776505523","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4785468","display_name":"Plan (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.44413527846336365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147077947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1515895","display_name":"Socioeconomic status","level":3,"score":0.44342976808547974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777351106","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49371","display_name":"Legislation","level":2,"score":0.4430887699127197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.4228634834289551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3841003179550171},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.24697792530059814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.15369439125061035},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.13219541311264038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"mag:565243635","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://trid.trb.org/view/746801","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764452690","display_name":"Public roads","issn_l":"0033-3735","issn":["0033-3735"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4365922605","host_organization_name":"U.S. Federal Highway Administration","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4365922605"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["U.S. Federal Highway Administration"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Public roads","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2074261405","https://openalex.org/W579942040","https://openalex.org/W2791104741","https://openalex.org/W2055058802","https://openalex.org/W618591391","https://openalex.org/W7097068286","https://openalex.org/W6940952497","https://openalex.org/W2288792230","https://openalex.org/W640505544","https://openalex.org/W1589612444"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Long-range":[0],"transportation":[1,27,36,56,84],"plans,":[2],"with":[3],"horizons":[4],"of":[5,25,34,52,128,135],"10":[6],"years":[7],"or":[8],"greater,":[9],"often":[10],"are":[11],"viewed":[12],"as":[13,43,178],"a":[14,39,44,139],"process":[15],"for":[16,46,63,137],"enabling":[17],"decisionmakers":[18],"to":[19,76,82,93,132,150,155,165,173],"evaluate":[20],"the":[21,32,50,126,163,171],"strengths":[22],"and":[23,61,100,110,114,119,146,168],"weaknesses":[24],"various":[26,69],"alternatives.":[28],"This":[29],"article":[30],"addresses":[31],"reliability":[33],"forecasting":[35],"trends,":[37],"using":[38,147],"project":[40],"called":[41],"Vtrans2025":[42,48],"model":[45,70],"discussion.":[47],"is":[49],"state":[51],"Virginia's":[53],"multimodal":[54],"long-range":[55,176],"plan,":[57],"begun":[58],"in":[59,65,72,86,96,106,116,143],"2000":[60],"scheduled":[62],"completion":[64],"2005.":[66],"Staff":[67],"from":[68],"agencies":[71],"Virginia":[73],"were":[74],"asked":[75],"identify":[77,94],"key":[78],"socioeconomic":[79,102],"trends":[80,95],"likely":[81],"affect":[83],"demand":[85],"2025.":[87],"The":[88,123,157],"support":[89],"information":[90,149,180],"was":[91],"expected":[92],"four":[97],"areas:":[98],"historical":[99,148],"projected":[101],"trends;":[103],"relevant":[104],"changes":[105,115],"public":[107],"policy,":[108],"legislation,":[109],"technology;":[111],"freight":[112],"projections":[113],"market":[117],"share;":[118],"passenger":[120],"travel":[121],"trends.":[122],"author":[124,158],"discusses":[125],"types":[127],"data":[129],"that":[130],"forecast":[131],"2025,":[133],"rules":[134],"thumb":[136],"forecasting,":[138],"specific":[140],"case":[141],"study":[142],"mode":[144],"choice,":[145],"consider":[151],"accuracy":[152],"(from":[153],"1925":[154],"1950).":[156],"concludes":[159],"by":[160,169],"focusing":[161],"on":[162],"challenges":[164],"accurate":[166],"predictions":[167],"stressing":[170],"need":[172],"regularly":[174],"update":[175],"plans":[177],"new":[179],"becomes":[181],"available.":[182]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-10-10T17:16:08.811792","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}