{"id":"https://openalex.org/W46855436","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7302/4277","title":"Assessing Probability with Multiple Individuals: Group Interaction Versus Mathematical Aggregation","display_name":"Assessing Probability with Multiple Individuals: Group Interaction Versus Mathematical Aggregation","publication_year":1979,"publication_date":"1979-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W46855436","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7302/4277","mag":"46855436"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:ADA073363","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&amp;verb=getRecord&amp;metadataPrefix=html&amp;identifier=ADA073363","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406923043","display_name":"Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"DTIC AND NTIS","raw_type":"Text"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.7302/4277","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079957209","display_name":"David A. Seaver","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Seaver, David Arden","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5079957209"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.0401,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":37,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.83501878,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10050","display_name":"Multi-Criteria Decision Making","score":0.5713000297546387,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10050","display_name":"Multi-Criteria Decision Making","score":0.5713000297546387,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.1664000004529953,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12443","display_name":"Delphi Technique in Research","score":0.066600002348423,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subjective-probability-assessment","display_name":"subjective probability assessment","score":0.8230000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/group-interaction","display_name":"group interaction","score":0.6759999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consensus-building","display_name":"consensus building","score":0.7210000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/judgment-aggregation","display_name":"judgment aggregation","score":0.531000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-theory","display_name":"decision theory","score":0.45100000500679016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-elicitation","display_name":"probability elicitation","score":0.5860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conformity-pressure","display_name":"conformity pressure","score":0.6909999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/aggregation-model","display_name":"aggregation model","score":0.4790000021457672}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781423480","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1309409","display_name":"Unanimity","level":2,"score":0.6276345252990723},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.584194004535675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5660227537155151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32172795","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4692266","display_name":"Aggregation problem","level":2,"score":0.540358304977417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781311116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83306","display_name":"Group (periodic table)","level":2,"score":0.5161517858505249},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.48622313141822815},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28901747","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177571","display_name":"Decision theory","level":2,"score":0.47873708605766296},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779193601","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q20026918","display_name":"Mathematical theory","level":2,"score":0.45992833375930786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C20701700","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q388791","display_name":"Group decision-making","level":2,"score":0.4512268602848053},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.35664379596710205},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3351508378982544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.29531919956207275},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.2855818569660187},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.22831305861473083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.16386184096336365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.15994209051132202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178790620","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11351","display_name":"Organic chemistry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:ADA073363","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&amp;verb=getRecord&amp;metadataPrefix=html&amp;identifier=ADA073363","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406923043","display_name":"Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"DTIC AND NTIS","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/172127","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/172127","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400393","display_name":"Deep Blue (University of Michigan)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","host_organization_name":"University of Michigan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Thesis"},{"id":"doi:10.7302/4277","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7302/4277","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.7302/4277","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407053136","display_name":"University of Michigan Library","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Dissertation"},{"id":"mag:46855436","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA073363.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.7302/4277","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7302/4277","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.7302/4277","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407053136","display_name":"University of Michigan Library","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Dissertation"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2044917258","https://openalex.org/W1604673746","https://openalex.org/W7097627078","https://openalex.org/W2105984000","https://openalex.org/W3033334714","https://openalex.org/W2082614456","https://openalex.org/W29541931","https://openalex.org/W346128623","https://openalex.org/W4246665709","https://openalex.org/W2807852590"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,79],"application":[1],"of":[2,55,105,117,160,172],"decision":[3,70],"theory":[4],"often":[5],"involves":[6],"assessing":[7,13],"subjective":[8],"probabilities":[9,173],"and":[10,110,138,163],"procedures":[11,21],"for":[12,130],"them":[14],"are":[15,22,33,149],"quite":[16],"well":[17],"developed.":[18],"But":[19],"such":[20],"based":[23],"on":[24,35],"assessments":[25],"by":[26,125,175],"a":[27,60,84,88,100,141],"single":[28,61,101,142],"person.":[29],"Often":[30],"multiple":[31,46],"individuals":[32,47,80,127],"called":[34],"to":[36,57,75,86,98,123,136],"provide":[37],"the":[38,45,53,91,115,170],"probabilistic":[39],"judgments.":[40],"Unanimity":[41],"in":[42,68,151],"judgments":[43,93],"among":[44],"cannot":[48],"be":[49,66,95,121],"expected,":[50],"thereby":[51],"creating":[52],"problem":[54,77],"how":[56],"arrive":[58],"at":[59],"probability":[62,102],"distribution":[63,143],"that":[64,140],"can":[65,81,94],"used":[67],"applying":[69],"theory.":[71],"Two":[72],"general":[73],"approaches":[74,107],"this":[76,167],"exist.":[78],"interact":[82],"as":[83],"group":[85,161],"reach":[87],"consensus,":[89],"or":[90,128],"individual":[92],"mathematically":[96],"aggregated":[97],"produce":[99],"distribution.":[103],"Each":[104],"these":[106],"has":[108],"advantages":[109],"disadvantages.":[111],"Group":[112],"interaction":[113,162,176],"allows":[114],"exchange":[116],"information,":[118],"but":[119,146],"may":[120],"susceptible":[122],"dominance":[124],"certain":[126],"pressure":[129],"conformity.":[131],"Mathematical":[132],"aggregation":[133,155,165],"is":[134],"simple":[135],"use":[137],"ensures":[139],"will":[144],"result,":[145],"theoretical":[147],"difficulties":[148],"encountered":[150],"specifying":[152],"an":[153],"appropriate":[154],"model.":[156],"Using":[157],"several":[158],"forms":[159],"mathematical":[164,178],"models,":[166],"research":[168],"investigated":[169],"quality":[171],"produced":[174],"versus":[177],"models.":[179]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
