{"id":"https://openalex.org/W45006791","doi":null,"title":"Modeling the Uncertain Future of a Threatened Habitat: Climate Change and Urban Growth in California Sage Scrub","display_name":"Modeling the Uncertain Future of a Threatened Habitat: Climate Change and Urban Growth in California Sage Scrub","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W45006791","mag":"45006791"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt3mf5653w","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3mf5653w","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"etd"},"volume":null,"type":"dissertation","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079558491","display_name":"Erin Coulter Riordan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4524-8048","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4524-8048"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Erin C. Riordan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4524-8048","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5079558491"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10895","display_name":"Species Distribution and Climate Change","score":0.9922000169754028,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2302","display_name":"Ecological Modeling"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10895","display_name":"Species Distribution and Climate Change","score":0.9922000169754028,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2302","display_name":"Ecological Modeling"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10005","display_name":"Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies","score":0.0034000000450760126,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2309","display_name":"Nature and Landscape Conservation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13388","display_name":"Rangeland and Wildlife Management","score":0.0032999999821186066,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-impacts","display_name":"climate change impacts","score":0.8809999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/land-use-change","display_name":"land use change","score":0.7919999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/species-distribution-modeling","display_name":"species distribution modeling","score":0.7950000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/habitat-loss","display_name":"habitat loss","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/floristic-groups","display_name":"floristic groups","score":0.7549999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dispersal-limitation","display_name":"dispersal limitation","score":0.7350000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/threatened-plant-species","display_name":"threatened plant species","score":0.5830000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conservation-planning","display_name":"conservation planning","score":0.43299999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/california-floristic-province","display_name":"California Floristic Province","score":0.7649999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mediterranean-climate","display_name":"Mediterranean climate","score":0.6430000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biodiversity-loss","display_name":"biodiversity loss","score":0.5789999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/habitat-fragmentation","display_name":"habitat fragmentation","score":0.43799999356269836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/plant-habit","display_name":"plant habit","score":0.39399999380111694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climatic-niche","display_name":"climatic niche","score":0.30300000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/urban-expansion","display_name":"urban expansion","score":0.35499998927116394}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24518262","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16197023","display_name":"Threatened species","level":3,"score":0.7942601442337036},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.6981240510940552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C130217890","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47041","display_name":"Biodiversity","level":2,"score":0.6489344835281372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.6461615562438965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.5376492738723755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C179345059","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11394","display_name":"Endangered species","level":3,"score":0.4611838459968567},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185933670","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52105","display_name":"Habitat","level":2,"score":0.4239517152309418},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107826830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929380","display_name":"Environmental resource management","level":1,"score":0.3208431005477905},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.28386688232421875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.11547619104385376}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt3mf5653w","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3mf5653w","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"etd"},{"id":"mag:45006791","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3mf5653w/qt3mf5653w.pdf?t=mozvvm","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Life on land","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","score":1.0},{"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.685699999332428}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":90,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W136709371","https://openalex.org/W1007704209","https://openalex.org/W1523963696","https://openalex.org/W1524734598","https://openalex.org/W1815931204","https://openalex.org/W1951654463","https://openalex.org/W1964590790","https://openalex.org/W1965889938","https://openalex.org/W1974679863","https://openalex.org/W1975290893","https://openalex.org/W1978637497","https://openalex.org/W1979503267","https://openalex.org/W1980034158","https://openalex.org/W1980918351","https://openalex.org/W1993080413","https://openalex.org/W1994619160","https://openalex.org/W2000861901","https://openalex.org/W2004534045","https://openalex.org/W2014009914","https://openalex.org/W2021092909","https://openalex.org/W2022960633","https://openalex.org/W2024649846","https://openalex.org/W2031647551","https://openalex.org/W2035644623","https://openalex.org/W2042481309","https://openalex.org/W2045554616","https://openalex.org/W2050111191","https://openalex.org/W2054226732","https://openalex.org/W2064062496","https://openalex.org/W2066917514","https://openalex.org/W2066943293","https://openalex.org/W2075595928","https://openalex.org/W2076136407","https://openalex.org/W2079018504","https://openalex.org/W2079109555","https://openalex.org/W2081964130","https://openalex.org/W2083187709","https://openalex.org/W2084542604","https://openalex.org/W2085467678","https://openalex.org/W2087168225","https://openalex.org/W2088651910","https://openalex.org/W2089808657","https://openalex.org/W2095854336","https://openalex.org/W2097369872","https://openalex.org/W2098000995","https://openalex.org/W2101321903","https://openalex.org/W2104116626","https://openalex.org/W2111356580","https://openalex.org/W2111785768","https://openalex.org/W2112315008","https://openalex.org/W2112672521","https://openalex.org/W2112776483","https://openalex.org/W2118776848","https://openalex.org/W2120160157","https://openalex.org/W2123337039","https://openalex.org/W2125118617","https://openalex.org/W2126473499","https://openalex.org/W2130354003","https://openalex.org/W2130698575","https://openalex.org/W2133501143","https://openalex.org/W2133626948","https://openalex.org/W2135332617","https://openalex.org/W2135338837","https://openalex.org/W2135858501","https://openalex.org/W2139416101","https://openalex.org/W2141097221","https://openalex.org/W2141756196","https://openalex.org/W2142996218","https://openalex.org/W2145340043","https://openalex.org/W2146045103","https://openalex.org/W2147030766","https://openalex.org/W2149507322","https://openalex.org/W2154160829","https://openalex.org/W2154698271","https://openalex.org/W2155218173","https://openalex.org/W2156351447","https://openalex.org/W2159163713","https://openalex.org/W2161770775","https://openalex.org/W2162049685","https://openalex.org/W2162348455","https://openalex.org/W2162389441","https://openalex.org/W2163816695","https://openalex.org/W2167187105","https://openalex.org/W2171071998","https://openalex.org/W2171367564","https://openalex.org/W2233540982","https://openalex.org/W2321837686","https://openalex.org/W2326123813","https://openalex.org/W2954709901","https://openalex.org/W3032747160"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2034990707","https://openalex.org/W2053435527","https://openalex.org/W2111356580","https://openalex.org/W2062855256","https://openalex.org/W1988332950","https://openalex.org/W2900328174","https://openalex.org/W2032915579","https://openalex.org/W2076096496","https://openalex.org/W7165173947","https://openalex.org/W4412179054"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"combined":[1],"impacts":[2,189,560],"of":[3,15,50,65,83,110,139,145,162,178,202,242,291,392,408,422,517,570],"climate":[4,43,88,129,140,183,207,233,251,286,334,347,426,440,487,543,554],"change":[5,17,89,184,208,252,344,348,427,441,488,555],"and":[6,18,69,87,93,101,105,112,128,148,165,185,194,196,206,221,235,238,256,259,265,295,353,380,400,405,416,439,450,470,479,486,504,553,563,575],"land":[7,32,85,126,204,272,278,430,437,451,484,551],"use":[8,33,86,127,205,273,279,431,438,452,485,552],"are":[9,133,522],"projected":[10,84,182,203,277,333,526],"to":[11,40,120,134,181,213,327,369,396,429,527,556,567],"drive":[12],"unprecedented":[13],"rates":[14],"environmental":[16],"biodiversity":[19,41],"loss":[20,123,269,379],"this":[21],"century.":[22],"Given":[23],"the":[24,46,73,80,137,160,176,199,231,312,321,390,420,491,509,518,548,565],"rapidly":[25],"growing":[26],"human":[27],"populations":[28],"in":[29,72,103,141,159,211,314,341,389,490,508,537,573],"mediterranean-climate":[30,74],"systems,":[31],"may":[34,116,218],"pose":[35],"a":[36,62,107,153,224,288,304,454],"more":[37],"immediate":[38],"threat":[39,423,457],"than":[42],"change,":[44,335],"however,":[45],"relative":[47,200,428],"future":[48,81,125,188,236,271,413,444,456,529],"impact":[49],"each":[51],"driver":[52],"remains":[53],"largely":[54],"unaddressed.":[55],"Focusing":[56],"on":[57,90,190,209,561],"California":[58,75,95,212,473],"sage":[59,96],"scrub":[60,97],"(CSS),":[61],"plant":[63,329],"association":[64],"considerable":[66,397,501],"diversity,":[67,195],"endemism,":[68],"threatened":[70,111],"status":[71],"Floristic":[76],"Province,":[77],"I":[78,229,336,418,513],"investigate":[79,328],"threats":[82,201,217,445],"CSS":[91,146,163,191,210,245,293,342,393,414,477,538,562],"distribution":[92,104,161,226,330,391],"diversity.":[94],"is":[98,287],"highly":[99],"reduced":[100],"fragmented":[102],"contains":[106],"large":[108],"number":[109],"endangered":[113],"species":[114,147,164,179,225,247,294,360,375,394,539],"that":[115,515,521],"be":[117],"particularly":[118],"vulnerable":[119],"further":[121],"habitat":[122,343,351,355,361,378,383,478,502],"from":[124,270,276,365,482],"change.":[130,544],"My":[131],"objectives":[132],"(1)":[135],"assess":[136],"role":[138],"shaping":[142],"current":[143,315],"patterns":[144,340],"floristic":[149,296,305],"group":[150,297,306],"distributions":[151,241,298],"at":[152,299,303,403],"regional":[154,300],"scale,":[155],"(2)":[156],"predict":[157,337],"changes":[158],"growth":[166],"forms,":[167],"testing":[168],"whether":[169],"niche,":[170],"geographic,":[171],"or":[172],"bioclimatic":[173],"factors":[174],"explain":[175],"magnitude":[177],"response":[180],"identifying":[186],"potential":[187,322,549],"community":[192,398],"structure":[193],"(3)":[197],"compare":[198],"better":[214],"understand":[215],"how":[216],"vary":[219,465],"spatially":[220,466],"temporally.":[222],"Using":[223],"modeling":[227,325],"approach,":[228],"modeled":[230],"contemporary":[232],"relationship":[234],"(mid-":[237],"late-century)":[239],"geographic":[240],"33":[243],"dominant":[244],"shrub":[246],"assuming":[248],"two":[249,260,338],"possible":[250],"trajectories":[253],"(warmer":[254],"wetter":[255],"warmer":[257],"drier)":[258],"dispersal":[261,264,434,448,460,498],"scenarios":[262,449],"(unlimited":[263,367,385],"no":[266,447],"dispersal).":[267,386],"Habitats":[268],"was":[274],"calculated":[275],"overlays":[280],"(objective":[281],"3).":[282],"Current":[283],"models":[284],"reveal":[285],"strong":[289],"predictor":[290],"individual":[292],"scales.":[301],"Modeling":[302],"level":[307],"provides":[308],"important":[309],"information":[310],"about":[311],"differences":[313],"climatic":[316],"niches":[317],"within":[318],"CSS,":[319,409],"highlighting":[320],"for":[323,412,550],"community-level":[324],"approaches":[326],"patterns.":[331],"Under":[332],"overall":[339,381],"consistent":[345],"across":[346],"trajectories:":[349],"southern":[350,406],"contraction":[352],"northern":[354,404],"expansion.":[356],"By":[357],"late-century":[358],"(2080s)":[359],"losses":[362,481,536],"will":[363,463,532],"range":[364],"moderate":[366],"dispersal)":[368],"severe":[370],"(no":[371],"dispersal),":[372],"with":[373,410,436,475],"succulent":[374],"showing":[376],"minimal":[377],"net":[382],"gains":[384,503],"Individual":[387],"shifts":[388,402],"translate":[395],"restructuring":[399],"diversity":[401,480,506],"extents":[407],"implications":[411],"management":[415,577],"conservation.":[417],"find":[419,514],"degree":[421],"posed":[424],"by":[425,542],"depends":[432],"upon":[433],"scenario,":[435],"posing":[442,453],"similar":[443],"under":[446,458,495],"greater":[455],"unlimited":[459,497],"scenarios.":[461],"Impacts":[462],"also":[464],"between":[467],"Central":[468,510],"Coast":[469,472,493,520],"South":[471,492,519],"Ecoregions,":[474],"high":[476,535],"both":[483,571],"predicted":[489,507],"even":[494],"best-case":[496],"scenarios,":[499],"but":[500,525],"increased":[505],"Coast.":[511],"Furthermore,":[512],"regions":[516],"currently":[523],"intact":[524],"undergo":[528],"anthropogenic":[530],"conversion":[531],"have":[533,557],"disproportionately":[534],"richness":[540],"driven":[541],"These":[545],"findings":[546],"highlight":[547],"compounding":[558],"negative":[559],"emphasize":[564],"necessity":[566],"include":[568],"analyses":[569],"drivers":[572],"conservation":[574],"resource":[576],"planning.":[578]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-09-22T06:50:58.402377","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
