{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4416035239","doi":"https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","title":"Beyond Inherent Cognition Biases in LLM-Based Event Forecasting: A Multi-Cognition Agentic Framework","display_name":"Beyond Inherent Cognition Biases in LLM-Based Event Forecasting: A Multi-Cognition Agentic Framework","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4416035239","doi":"https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","doi":"https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","pdf_url":"https://aclanthology.org/2025.findings-emnlp.258.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407096085","display_name":"Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP (Findings of EMNLP)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320244","host_organization_name":"Association for Computational Linguistics","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320244"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for Computational Linguistics"],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2025","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"volume":null,"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://aclanthology.org/2025.findings-emnlp.258.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Zhen Wang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhen Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Xi Zhou","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xi Zhou","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034313244","display_name":"Yating Yang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2639-3944","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2639-3944"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yating Yang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101910437","display_name":"Bo Ma","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3082-648X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3082-648X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bo Ma","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115695525","display_name":"Lei Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7067-3732","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7067-3732","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0734-7026","https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9890-8948"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lei Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004378974","display_name":"Rui Dong","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4110-3976","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4110-3976"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rui Dong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5000606437","display_name":"Azmat Anwar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0684-1527","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0684-1527"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Azmat Anwar","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.30977767,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"4799","last_page":"4818"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.7437000274658203,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10028","display_name":"Topic Modeling","score":0.7437000274658203,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.07029999792575836,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10883","display_name":"Ethics and Social Impacts of AI","score":0.020999999716877937,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/event-prediction","display_name":"event prediction","score":0.6669999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/large-language-models","display_name":"large language models","score":0.8259999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-bias","display_name":"cognitive biases","score":0.9200000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multi-agent-systems","display_name":"multi-agent systems","score":0.7310000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/perspective-taking","display_name":"perspective taking","score":0.8379999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agentic-framework","display_name":"agentic framework","score":0.5230000019073486}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.5651999711990356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.5561000108718872},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.49639999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.49570000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3871999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189216375","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127759","display_name":"Cognitive bias","level":3,"score":0.38100001215934753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.3255000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26760741","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160402","display_name":"Perception","level":2,"score":0.3158000111579895},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188147891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q147638","display_name":"Cognitive science","level":1,"score":0.2921999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986342778","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Cognitive systems","level":3,"score":0.2854999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.27630001306533813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.2685000002384186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168167062","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1117970","display_name":"Component (thermodynamics)","level":2,"score":0.2606000006198883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12713177","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1900281","display_name":"Perspective (graphical)","level":2,"score":0.2529999911785126}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","doi":"https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","pdf_url":"https://aclanthology.org/2025.findings-emnlp.258.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407096085","display_name":"Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP (Findings of EMNLP)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320244","host_organization_name":"Association for Computational Linguistics","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320244"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for Computational Linguistics"],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2025","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","doi":"https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.258","pdf_url":"https://aclanthology.org/2025.findings-emnlp.258.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407096085","display_name":"Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP (Findings of EMNLP)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320244","host_organization_name":"Association for Computational Linguistics","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320244"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for Computational Linguistics"],"type":"conference"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2025","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4416035239.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4416035239.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7131241851","https://openalex.org/W7163722626","https://openalex.org/W4416411576","https://openalex.org/W7106706980","https://openalex.org/W4415965532","https://openalex.org/W4399510491","https://openalex.org/W4405372230","https://openalex.org/W4409362528","https://openalex.org/W7222254400","https://openalex.org/W6948593855"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Large":[0],"Language":[1],"Models":[2],"(LLMs)":[3],"exhibit":[4,20],"strong":[5],"reasoning":[6],"capabilities":[7],"and":[8,98,110,156],"are":[9],"widely":[10],"applied":[11],"in":[12,30,36,56,96,154],"event":[13,37,58,78,88,127],"forecasting.However,":[14],"studies":[15],"have":[16],"demonstrated":[17],"that":[18,147],"LLMs":[19,51,73,97,155],"human-like":[21],"cognitive":[22,34,54,85,94,152],"biases,":[23],"systematic":[24],"patterns":[25,86],"of":[26,87,132,138],"deviation":[27],"from":[28],"rationality":[29],"decision-making.To":[31],"explore":[32],"the":[33,84,92,130,142,151],"biases":[35,55,95,153],"forecasting,":[38],"we":[39,64,145],"introduce":[40],"CogForecast,":[41],"a":[42,67,112,116,123],"human-curated":[43],"dataset":[44,124],"comprising":[45],"six":[46],"topics.Experimental":[47],"results":[48,121],"on":[49,83,122],"three":[50,158],"reveal":[52],"significant":[53],"LLM-based":[57],"forecasting":[59],"methods.To":[60],"address":[61],"this":[62],"issue,":[63],"propose":[65],"MCA,":[66],"Multi-Cognition":[68],"Agentic":[69],"framework.Specifically,":[70],"MCA":[71,103,148],"leverages":[72],"to":[74,90,107],"act":[75],"as":[76],"multi-cognition":[77],"participants,":[79],"performing":[80],"perspective-taking":[81],"based":[82],"participants":[89],"alleviate":[91,150],"inherent":[93],"offer":[99],"diverse":[100],"analytical":[101],"perspectives.Then,":[102],"clusters":[104],"agents":[105],"according":[106],"their":[108],"predictions":[109],"derives":[111],"final":[113],"answer":[114],"through":[115],"group-level":[117],"reliability":[118],"scoring":[119],"method.Experimental":[120],"including":[125],"eight":[126],"categories":[128],"demonstrate":[129,146],"effectiveness":[131],"MCA.Using":[133],"Llama-3.1-70B,MCA":[134],"achieves":[135],"an":[136],"accuracy":[137],"82.3%":[139],"(79.5%":[140],"for":[141],"human":[143],"crowd).Additionally,":[144],"can":[149],"investigate":[157],"influencing":[159],"factors.":[160]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-29T09:56:32.521200","created_date":"2025-11-08T00:00:00"}
