{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4413165490","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","title":"Dating business cycle turning points for South Africa: A comparison of parametric and non-parametric dating methods","display_name":"Dating business cycle turning points for South Africa: A comparison of parametric and non-parametric dating methods","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-08-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4413165490","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","pdf_url":"https://www.ssbfnet.com/ojs/index.php/ijrbs/article/download/4277/2958","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738623827","display_name":"International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478)","issn_l":"2147-4478","issn":["2147-4478"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310318325","host_organization_name":"\u00dcmit Hac\u0131o\u011flu","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310318325"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["\u00dcmit Hac\u0131o\u011flu"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478)","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.ssbfnet.com/ojs/index.php/ijrbs/article/download/4277/2958","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5098849475","display_name":"Malibongwe Cyprian Nyati","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6525-4958","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6525-4958"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137616099","display_name":"Tshwane University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/037mrss42","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Malibongwe Nyathi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tshwane University of Technology"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tshwane University of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070259444","display_name":"Simiso Msomi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1944-9003","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1944-9003"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I95023434","display_name":"University of KwaZulu-Natal","ror":"https://ror.org/04qzfn040","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I95023434"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Simiso Msomi","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of KwaZulu Natal"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1944-9003","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of KwaZulu Natal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95023434"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034932444","display_name":"Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4801-0895","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4801-0895"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24027795","display_name":"University of Johannesburg","ror":"https://ror.org/04z6c2n17","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24027795"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ntokozo Nzimande","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Johannesburg"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Johannesburg","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24027795"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058498926","display_name":"Mulatu Fekadu Zerihun","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4797-928X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4797-928X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137616099","display_name":"Tshwane University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/037mrss42","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mulatu Fekadu Zerihun","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tshwane University of Technology"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4797-928X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tshwane University of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040259523","display_name":"Besuthu Hlafa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7369-0490","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7369-0490"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137616099","display_name":"Tshwane University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/037mrss42","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Besuthu Hlafa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tshwane University of Technology"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7369-0490","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tshwane University of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5119287535","display_name":"Siyabonga Siboniso Mncube","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2880-8788","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2880-8788"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137616099","display_name":"Tshwane University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/037mrss42","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Siyabonga Siboniso Mncube","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tshwane University of Technology"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2880-8788","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tshwane University of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5119287536","display_name":"Bhekithemba Khanyisani Mdlalose","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137616099","display_name":"Tshwane University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/037mrss42","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bhekithemba Khanyisani Mdlalose","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tshwane University of Technology"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tshwane University of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5119287537","display_name":"Amara Liyabona Mngcutsha","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0671-2163","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0671-2163"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137616099","display_name":"Tshwane University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/037mrss42","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Amara Liyabona Mngcutsha","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tshwane University of Technology"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0671-2163","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tshwane University of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137616099"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":120,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":129},"apc_paid":{"value":120,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":129},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":"6","first_page":"512","last_page":"527"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9955999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9955999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13399","display_name":"Unemployment and Economic Growth","score":0.0017999999690800905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.001500000013038516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycle-turning-points","display_name":"business cycle turning points","score":0.9160000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycle-dating","display_name":"business cycle dating","score":0.8539999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-africa","display_name":"South Africa","score":0.7070000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-forecasting","display_name":"economic forecasting","score":0.5019999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-african-reserve-bank","display_name":"South African Reserve Bank","score":0.7919999957084656}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C117251300","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1849855","display_name":"Parametric statistics","level":2,"score":0.7537648677825928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83873408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192311","display_name":"Business cycle","level":2,"score":0.5049124360084534},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24574437","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7135228","display_name":"Parametric model","level":3,"score":0.4584782123565674},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.4358311891555786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3324672281742096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.23121511936187744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.20143312215805054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.19734689593315125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.12083849310874939}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","pdf_url":"https://www.ssbfnet.com/ojs/index.php/ijrbs/article/download/4277/2958","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738623827","display_name":"International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478)","issn_l":"2147-4478","issn":["2147-4478"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310318325","host_organization_name":"\u00dcmit Hac\u0131o\u011flu","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310318325"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["\u00dcmit Hac\u0131o\u011flu"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478)","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","doi":"https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v14i6.4277","pdf_url":"https://www.ssbfnet.com/ojs/index.php/ijrbs/article/download/4277/2958","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738623827","display_name":"International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478)","issn_l":"2147-4478","issn":["2147-4478"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310318325","host_organization_name":"\u00dcmit Hac\u0131o\u011flu","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310318325"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["\u00dcmit Hac\u0131o\u011flu"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478)","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4413165490.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4413165490.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":41,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1496127819","https://openalex.org/W1508018987","https://openalex.org/W1555523338","https://openalex.org/W1702624953","https://openalex.org/W1733784765","https://openalex.org/W1975000617","https://openalex.org/W1977499272","https://openalex.org/W1978733388","https://openalex.org/W2000637480","https://openalex.org/W2014378975","https://openalex.org/W2031299127","https://openalex.org/W2033273362","https://openalex.org/W2035777923","https://openalex.org/W2074812030","https://openalex.org/W2094025373","https://openalex.org/W2128224219","https://openalex.org/W2128738261","https://openalex.org/W2150018836","https://openalex.org/W2152236681","https://openalex.org/W2183079290","https://openalex.org/W2246074809","https://openalex.org/W2507462016","https://openalex.org/W2531204024","https://openalex.org/W2735466990","https://openalex.org/W2885331117","https://openalex.org/W2909191893","https://openalex.org/W2962006367","https://openalex.org/W3037728132","https://openalex.org/W3121659565","https://openalex.org/W3122211078","https://openalex.org/W3122875229","https://openalex.org/W3123887400","https://openalex.org/W3124242087","https://openalex.org/W3124635053","https://openalex.org/W3131545509","https://openalex.org/W3142936044","https://openalex.org/W4386846589","https://openalex.org/W4387448572","https://openalex.org/W4388111788","https://openalex.org/W4399528781","https://openalex.org/W7164894723"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2152236681","https://openalex.org/W2261728847","https://openalex.org/W2885331117","https://openalex.org/W2887289179","https://openalex.org/W2073162999","https://openalex.org/W2246074809","https://openalex.org/W7037255952","https://openalex.org/W4242878876","https://openalex.org/W1983138906","https://openalex.org/W4386846589"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Several":[0],"official":[1],"dating":[2,85,92,101,179],"institutions":[3],"viz:":[4],"SARB,":[5],"NBER,":[6],"OECD,":[7],"CEPR,":[8],"and":[9,46,83,87,98,138,187,203],"others,":[10],"provide":[11],"Business":[12],"Cycle":[13],"(BC)":[14],"chronologies":[15],"with":[16],"lags":[17],"ranging":[18],"from":[19],"three":[20],"months":[21],"to":[22,36,75,131,166,173],"several":[23],"years.":[24],"This":[25],"is":[26,120,157],"problematic":[27],"for":[28],"the":[29,37,56,112,136,147,154,169,189,195,200,204],"various":[30],"oppressed":[31],"as":[32,61],"it":[33],"poses":[34],"limits":[35],"usefulness":[38],"of":[39,44,58,64,78,96,100,146,149,178],"BC":[40],"indicators":[41,60,129],"in":[42,67,94,106,144,160,184],"terms":[43,95,145],"forecasting":[45],"policy":[47],"implementation":[48],"at":[49,206],"large.":[50,207],"In":[51],"this":[52,72],"article,":[53],"we":[54],"propose":[55],"construction":[57],"composite":[59,73,123],"accurate":[62,159],"measures":[63],"business":[65,102,180],"cycles":[66],"South":[68,107,185,196],"Africa.":[69,108],"We":[70],"use":[71],"index":[74],"facilitate":[76],"comparison":[77],"both":[79],"a":[80,88,175],"non-parametric":[81,139,155,170],"Bry":[82],"Boschan":[84],"algorithm":[86],"parametric":[89,137],"Markov":[90],"Switching":[91],"method,":[93],"performance":[97],"accuracy":[99,168],"cycle":[103,181],"turning":[104,150,163,182],"points":[105,151,183],"Utilising":[109],"data":[110],"spanning":[111],"period":[113],"2000M1":[114],"\u2013":[115],"2018M12,":[116],"empirical":[117],"evidence":[118],"obtained":[119],"such":[121],"that,":[122],"indices":[124],"are":[125,142,192],"better":[126],"than":[127],"single":[128],"due":[130],"information":[132],"rich.":[133],"Further,":[134],"while":[135],"methods\u2019":[140],"performances":[141],"matched":[143],"number":[148],"identified,":[152],"however,":[153],"method":[156,171,177],"more":[158],"identifying":[161],"these":[162],"points.":[164],"Due":[165],"its":[167],"proved":[172],"be":[174],"promising":[176],"Africa":[186],"alleviate":[188],"problems":[190],"which":[191],"currently":[193],"facing":[194],"African":[197],"Reserve":[198],"Bank,":[199],"private":[201],"sector":[202],"economy":[205]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
