{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4412372293","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625251351575","title":"When AI sees hotter: Overestimation bias in large language model climate assessments","display_name":"When AI sees hotter: Overestimation bias in large language model climate assessments","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-07-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4412372293","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625251351575","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40652388"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/09636625251351575","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625251351575","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625251351575","pdf_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/09636625251351575?download=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S124907306","display_name":"Public Understanding of Science","issn_l":"0963-6625","issn":["0963-6625","1361-6609"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-2","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Public Understanding of Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/09636625251351575?download=true","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5099002035","display_name":"Tenzin Tamang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5554-0608","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5554-0608"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I168719708","display_name":"City University of Hong Kong","ror":"https://ror.org/03q8dnn23","country_code":"HK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I168719708"]}],"countries":["HK"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Tenzin Tamang","raw_affiliation_strings":["City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5554-0608","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I168719708"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Ruilin Zheng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1765-6340","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1765-6340"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I168719708","display_name":"City University of Hong Kong","ror":"https://ror.org/03q8dnn23","country_code":"HK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I168719708"]}],"countries":["HK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ruilin Zheng","raw_affiliation_strings":["City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1765-6340","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I168719708"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5099002035"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I168719708"],"apc_list":{"value":3900,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3900},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.7961,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.86326395,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"35","issue":"1","first_page":"82","last_page":"99"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11488","display_name":"Climate Change Communication and Perception","score":0.649399995803833,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11488","display_name":"Climate Change Communication and Perception","score":0.649399995803833,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10883","display_name":"Ethics and Social Impacts of AI","score":0.32199999690055847,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.0034000000450760126,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/large-language-models","display_name":"large language models","score":0.8939999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overestimation-bias","display_name":"overestimation bias","score":0.9800000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-impacts","display_name":"climate change impacts","score":0.9290000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-consensus","display_name":"expert consensus","score":0.9079999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gpt-models","display_name":"GPT models","score":0.6650000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-bias","display_name":"social bias","score":0.4320000112056732},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-understanding-of-climate-science","display_name":"public understanding of climate science","score":0.6949999928474426}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.7553699016571045},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779039943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q316748","display_name":"Scientific consensus","level":4,"score":0.6085808873176575},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986440788","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climate science","level":3,"score":0.4979236125946045},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.4451161324977875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.37073540687561035},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.3651135265827179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.30990272760391235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.11646759510040283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000090082","descriptor_name":"Climate Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000090082","descriptor_name":"Climate Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000090082","descriptor_name":"Climate Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098342","descriptor_name":"Large Language Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098342","descriptor_name":"Large Language Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000098342","descriptor_name":"Large Language Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007802","descriptor_name":"Language","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D007802","descriptor_name":"Language","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D007802","descriptor_name":"Language","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015982","descriptor_name":"Bias","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015982","descriptor_name":"Bias","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015982","descriptor_name":"Bias","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D057231","descriptor_name":"Climate Change","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D057231","descriptor_name":"Climate Change","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D057231","descriptor_name":"Climate Change","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/09636625251351575","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625251351575","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625251351575","pdf_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/09636625251351575?download=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S124907306","display_name":"Public Understanding of Science","issn_l":"0963-6625","issn":["0963-6625","1361-6609"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-2","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Public Understanding of Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:40652388","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40652388","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/09636625251351575","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625251351575","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625251351575","pdf_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/09636625251351575?download=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S124907306","display_name":"Public Understanding of Science","issn_l":"0963-6625","issn":["0963-6625","1361-6609"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-2","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Public Understanding of Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":1.0,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.8299999833106995,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7390488742","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PF20-46810","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321592","funder_display_name":"Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321592","display_name":"Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee","ror":"https://ror.org/00djwmt25"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4412372293.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4412372293.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":49,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1499886644","https://openalex.org/W1587697198","https://openalex.org/W1602856417","https://openalex.org/W2037789405","https://openalex.org/W2095823787","https://openalex.org/W2095993230","https://openalex.org/W2098786089","https://openalex.org/W2100506586","https://openalex.org/W2123392368","https://openalex.org/W2127148641","https://openalex.org/W2147775745","https://openalex.org/W2164777277","https://openalex.org/W2515757056","https://openalex.org/W2786522005","https://openalex.org/W2906985669","https://openalex.org/W2938704169","https://openalex.org/W2953337107","https://openalex.org/W2968273896","https://openalex.org/W2973379954","https://openalex.org/W3014499801","https://openalex.org/W3037450747","https://openalex.org/W3103403019","https://openalex.org/W3133702157","https://openalex.org/W3211024016","https://openalex.org/W4206375261","https://openalex.org/W4226112058","https://openalex.org/W4239556602","https://openalex.org/W4292689741","https://openalex.org/W4296060402","https://openalex.org/W4307887675","https://openalex.org/W4313334409","https://openalex.org/W4320016131","https://openalex.org/W4321455981","https://openalex.org/W4361855702","https://openalex.org/W4366115126","https://openalex.org/W4367188881","https://openalex.org/W4379798485","https://openalex.org/W4384564863","https://openalex.org/W4385436553","https://openalex.org/W4385852384","https://openalex.org/W4388019311","https://openalex.org/W4390091455","https://openalex.org/W4390598749","https://openalex.org/W4391136507","https://openalex.org/W4391506308","https://openalex.org/W4392607911","https://openalex.org/W4399638825","https://openalex.org/W6892285761","https://openalex.org/W7036077125"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2733564695","https://openalex.org/W2790595990","https://openalex.org/W2972450019","https://openalex.org/W2927625753","https://openalex.org/W2991030209","https://openalex.org/W2509214521","https://openalex.org/W2949229422","https://openalex.org/W1886940400","https://openalex.org/W2960618417","https://openalex.org/W2091690703"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Large":[0],"language":[1],"models":[2,107],"(LLMs)":[3],"have":[4],"emerged":[5],"as":[6,31],"a":[7,114],"novel":[8],"form":[9],"of":[10,13,56,113],"media,":[11],"capable":[12],"generating":[14],"human-like":[15],"text":[16,36],"and":[17,40,98,134],"facilitating":[18],"interactive":[19],"communications.":[20],"However,":[21],"these":[22],"systems":[23],"are":[24,59,108],"subject":[25],"to":[26,62,123,131],"concerns":[27],"regarding":[28],"inherent":[29],"biases,":[30],"their":[32],"training":[33],"on":[34,78],"vast":[35],"corpora":[37],"may":[38],"encode":[39],"amplify":[41],"societal":[42],"biases.":[43],"This":[44],"study":[45,70],"investigates":[46],"overestimation":[47],"bias":[48,101],"in":[49,110],"LLM-generated":[50,125],"climate":[51,57,95,115,126],"assessments,":[52],"wherein":[53],"the":[54,69,75,106,111,120],"impacts":[55],"change":[58,96],"exaggerated":[60],"relative":[61],"expert":[63,72,129],"consensus.":[64],"Through":[65],"non-parametric":[66],"statistical":[67],"methods,":[68],"compares":[71],"ratings":[73],"from":[74,86],"Intergovernmental":[76],"Panel":[77],"Climate":[79],"Change":[80],"2023":[81],"Synthesis":[82],"Report":[83],"with":[84,128],"responses":[85],"GPT-family":[87],"LLMs.":[88],"Results":[89],"indicate":[90],"that":[91,99],"LLMs":[92],"systematically":[93],"overestimate":[94],"impacts,":[97],"this":[100],"is":[102],"more":[103],"pronounced":[104],"when":[105],"prompted":[109],"role":[112],"scientist.":[116],"These":[117],"findings":[118],"underscore":[119],"critical":[121],"need":[122],"align":[124],"assessments":[127],"consensus":[130],"prevent":[132],"misperception":[133],"foster":[135],"informed":[136],"public":[137],"discourse.":[138]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}