{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4410695510","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","title":"Investigating exchange rate volatility in some West African Countries using traditional time series and machine learning models","display_name":"Investigating exchange rate volatility in some West African Countries using traditional time series and machine learning models","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-05-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4410695510","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","pdf_url":"https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cajost/article/download/296304/278713","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4212763009","display_name":"Caliphate Journal of Science and Technology","issn_l":"2705-3121","issn":["2705-3121","2705-313X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["jpps-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321518","host_organization_name":"African Journals OnLine","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321518"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["African Journals OnLine"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Caliphate Journal of Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cajost/article/download/296304/278713","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5117663373","display_name":"Sani M. Maihulla","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210088819","display_name":"Abdullahi Fodio University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/006cvtz77","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210088819"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sani M. Maihulla","raw_affiliation_strings":["Kebbi State University of science and technology , Aliero"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Kebbi State University of science and technology , Aliero","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210088819"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025241598","display_name":"Wasiu Afolabi Babayemi","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210088819","display_name":"Abdullahi Fodio University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/006cvtz77","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210088819"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Afolabi W. Babayemi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Kebbi State University of science and technology , Aliero"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Kebbi State University of science and technology , Aliero","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210088819"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108786314","display_name":"Gerald Ike Onwuka","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gerald I. Onwuka","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031612819","display_name":"Anas Sani Maihulla","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1197-9694","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1197-9694"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3129379329","display_name":"Sokoto State University","ror":"https://ror.org/00zgr4s34","country_code":"NG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3129379329"]}],"countries":["NG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anas S. Maihulla","raw_affiliation_strings":["Sokoto State University , Sokoto"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Sokoto State University , Sokoto","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3129379329"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.4554,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.81618919,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"7","issue":"1","first_page":"170","last_page":"188"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10282","display_name":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","score":0.9945999979972839,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10282","display_name":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","score":0.9945999979972839,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.002400000113993883,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.0013000000035390258,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exchange-rate-volatility","display_name":"exchange rate volatility","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arimax","display_name":"ARIMAX","score":0.7200000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/garch","display_name":"GARCH","score":0.9559999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arches","display_name":"arches","score":0.4099999964237213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lstm","display_name":"LSTM","score":0.6899999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nigeria","display_name":"Nigeria","score":0.6079999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ghana","display_name":"Ghana","score":0.9959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/niger","display_name":"Niger","score":0.996999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gambia","display_name":"Gambia","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sierra-leone","display_name":"Sierra Leone","score":0.8539999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/volatility-forecasting","display_name":"volatility forecasting","score":0.546999990940094}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91602232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756115","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","level":2,"score":0.6000459790229797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5350744724273682},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.5206217765808105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4952072203159332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776988154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66100","display_name":"Exchange rate","level":2,"score":0.4704270362854004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.46460574865341187},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.3467596769332886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.31008628010749817},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.27782970666885376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.23913517594337463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.09467479586601257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","pdf_url":"https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cajost/article/download/296304/278713","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4212763009","display_name":"Caliphate Journal of Science and Technology","issn_l":"2705-3121","issn":["2705-3121","2705-313X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["jpps-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321518","host_organization_name":"African Journals OnLine","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321518"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["African Journals OnLine"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Caliphate Journal of Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:ojs2.cajost.com.ng:article/318","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://cajost.com.ng/index.php/index/article/view/318","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4212763009","display_name":"Caliphate Journal of Science and Technology","issn_l":"2705-3121","issn":["2705-3121","2705-313X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["jpps-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321518","host_organization_name":"African Journals OnLine","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321518"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["African Journals OnLine"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2705-3121","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4314/cajost.v7i1.17","pdf_url":"https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cajost/article/download/296304/278713","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4212763009","display_name":"Caliphate Journal of Science and Technology","issn_l":"2705-3121","issn":["2705-3121","2705-313X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["jpps-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321518","host_organization_name":"African Journals OnLine","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321518"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["African Journals OnLine"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Caliphate Journal of Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","score":0.48510000109672546}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4410695510.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4410695510.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":2,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W3137522788","https://openalex.org/W4225698213"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7170171171","https://openalex.org/W4400128100","https://openalex.org/W4321380506","https://openalex.org/W7208738951","https://openalex.org/W7169839168","https://openalex.org/W4386712485","https://openalex.org/W7204785797","https://openalex.org/W4210980671","https://openalex.org/W2780058294","https://openalex.org/W4388168737"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,136,194],"study":[1,195],"used":[2],"both":[3],"conventional":[4,121],"time":[5,65,122],"series":[6,66,123],"models":[7,67,84,88,124],"and":[8,24,34,57,71,82,117,127,155,191,202,210],"machine":[9,74,91],"learning":[10,75,92],"techniques":[11,76],"to":[12,28,166,212],"examine":[13],"the":[14,40,44,47,54,58,96,100,103,109,120,133,153,170,177,183,189,216],"volatility":[15,126,140,148],"of":[16,36,46,102,169],"exchange":[17,37],"rates":[18],"in":[19,147,206,215],"Nigeria,":[20,113],"Ghana,":[21,115],"Niger,":[22,114],"Gambia,":[23,116],"Sierra":[25,118],"Leone.":[26],"Due":[27],"their":[29],"economic":[30,213],"importance,":[31],"regional":[32],"representation,":[33],"variety":[35],"rate":[38],"regimes,":[39],"chosen":[41],"countries":[42,104],"were":[43,51,106],"subject":[45],"1999\u20132022":[48],"study.":[49],"Data":[50],"sourced":[52],"from":[53,95,164],"World":[55],"Bank":[56],"International":[59],"Monetary":[60],"Fund":[61],"(IMF).":[62],"The":[63],"traditional":[64,86],"employed":[68],"included":[69,77],"ARIMAX":[70],"GARCH,":[72],"while":[73],"Long":[78],"Short-Term":[79],"Memory":[80],"(LSTM)":[81],"hybrid":[83],"combining":[85],"econometric":[87],"with":[89,176],"advanced":[90],"methods.":[93],"Results":[94],"analyses":[97],"revealed":[98],"that":[99,138],"currencies":[101],"investigated":[105],"unstable":[107],"for":[108,199],"period":[110],"covered.":[111],"For":[112],"Leone,":[119],"calculated":[125],"showed":[128],"statistically":[129],"significant":[130],"returns":[131],"at":[132],"0.05":[134],"level.":[135],"implied":[137],"current":[139],"was":[141,150,174],"impacted":[142],"by":[143,152],"previous":[144],"performance.":[145],"Stability":[146],"modeling":[149],"indicated":[151],"GARCH":[154],"ARCH":[156],"parameter":[157],"sums":[158],"being":[159],"less":[160],"than":[161,188],"1":[162],"(ranging":[163],"0.346":[165],"0.716).":[167],"One":[168],"study's":[171],"important":[172],"conclusions":[173],"that,":[175],"lowest":[178],"Mean":[179],"Squared":[180],"Error":[181],"(MSE),":[182],"ARIMAX-LSTM":[184],"model":[185],"performed":[186],"better":[187],"GARCH-type":[190],"GARCH-LSTM":[192],"models.":[193],"provided":[196],"valuable":[197],"insights":[198],"policymakers,":[200],"investors,":[201],"financial":[203],"institutions,":[204],"aiding":[205],"more":[207],"informed":[208],"decision-making":[209],"contributing":[211],"stability":[214],"region.":[217]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2025-05-24T00:00:00"}
