{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4408304166","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","title":"Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application","display_name":"Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-03-10","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4408304166","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","pdf_url":"https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/1545/2025/gmd-18-1545-2025.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S60406085","display_name":"Geoscientific model development","issn_l":"1991-959X","issn":["1991-959X","1991-9603"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-3","norway-2","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Geoscientific Model Development","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/1545/2025/gmd-18-1545-2025.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100524812","display_name":"Yanwei Zhu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I200845125","display_name":"Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02y0rxk19","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I200845125"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yanwei Zhu","raw_affiliation_strings":["HuaFeng Research Lab for Weather Science and Applications, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China","School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"HuaFeng Research Lab for Weather Science and Applications, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I200845125"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I200845125"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056654473","display_name":"Aitor Atencia","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154425","display_name":"GeoSphere Austria","ror":"https://ror.org/0181cy234","country_code":"AT","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387154425"]}],"countries":["AT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Aitor Atencia","raw_affiliation_strings":["GeoSphere Austria, Vienna, Austria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"GeoSphere Austria, Vienna, Austria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387154425"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035095988","display_name":"Markus Dabernig","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2238-4282","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2238-4282"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154425","display_name":"GeoSphere Austria","ror":"https://ror.org/0181cy234","country_code":"AT","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387154425"]}],"countries":["AT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Markus Dabernig","raw_affiliation_strings":["GeoSphere Austria, Vienna, Austria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"GeoSphere Austria, Vienna, Austria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387154425"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5042772192","display_name":"Yong Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4246-6525","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4246-6525"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I141301092","display_name":"China Meteorological Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/00bx3rb98","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I141301092"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I200845125","display_name":"Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02y0rxk19","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I200845125"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Yong Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["CMA Earth System Modelling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China","School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4246-6525","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CMA Earth System Modelling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I141301092"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I200845125"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5042772192"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I141301092","https://openalex.org/I200845125"],"apc_list":{"value":1600,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":1725},"apc_paid":{"value":1600,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":1725},"fwci":0.311,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.3675406,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"18","issue":"5","first_page":"1545","last_page":"1559"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10255","display_name":"Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1910","display_name":"Oceanography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11234","display_name":"Precipitation Measurement and Analysis","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nowcasting","display_name":"nowcasting","score":0.7260000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/underdispersion","display_name":"underdispersion","score":0.7649999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-spread","display_name":"ensemble spread","score":0.515999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/numerical-weather-prediction","display_name":"numerical weather prediction","score":0.5910000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"uncertainty quantification","score":0.7269999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/beijing-tianjin-hebei-region","display_name":"Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region","score":0.8289999961853027}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781013037","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1433331","display_name":"Nowcasting","level":2,"score":0.9266270399093628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.44368186593055725},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.34398770332336426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3383868336677551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.2603852450847626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.17534947395324707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.13008055090904236}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","pdf_url":"https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/1545/2025/gmd-18-1545-2025.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S60406085","display_name":"Geoscientific model development","issn_l":"1991-959X","issn":["1991-959X","1991-9603"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-3","norway-2","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Geoscientific Model Development","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1554","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1554","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1554","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:6cbe2d2918fa45ae8158fa94b31053fa","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/6cbe2d2918fa45ae8158fa94b31053fa","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 18, Pp 1545-1559 (2025)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025","pdf_url":"https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/1545/2025/gmd-18-1545-2025.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S60406085","display_name":"Geoscientific model development","issn_l":"1991-959X","issn":["1991-959X","1991-9603"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-3","norway-2","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Geoscientific Model Development","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3157340984","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2024h214","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324849","funder_display_name":"Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7628608090","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CXFZ2025J011","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321569","funder_display_name":"China Meteorological Administration"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321569","display_name":"China Meteorological Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/00bx3rb98"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324849","display_name":"Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02y0rxk19"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324852","display_name":"Nanjing University","ror":"https://ror.org/01rxvg760"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4408304166.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4408304166.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":40,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1965068681","https://openalex.org/W1966047399","https://openalex.org/W1971037529","https://openalex.org/W1988640277","https://openalex.org/W2000530301","https://openalex.org/W2001673819","https://openalex.org/W2007324112","https://openalex.org/W2024414272","https://openalex.org/W2069821006","https://openalex.org/W2076318482","https://openalex.org/W2076855971","https://openalex.org/W2086220921","https://openalex.org/W2132905799","https://openalex.org/W2133144322","https://openalex.org/W2139195947","https://openalex.org/W2147126938","https://openalex.org/W2153882431","https://openalex.org/W2165321703","https://openalex.org/W2171859864","https://openalex.org/W2176106259","https://openalex.org/W2400509553","https://openalex.org/W2472131979","https://openalex.org/W2523643393","https://openalex.org/W2770612373","https://openalex.org/W2772355821","https://openalex.org/W2780857253","https://openalex.org/W2901903252","https://openalex.org/W2910740541","https://openalex.org/W2913728931","https://openalex.org/W2915068895","https://openalex.org/W2947092161","https://openalex.org/W2997906571","https://openalex.org/W3020724238","https://openalex.org/W3128782377","https://openalex.org/W3137509600","https://openalex.org/W3179094265","https://openalex.org/W3204945294","https://openalex.org/W4210956775","https://openalex.org/W4317438771","https://openalex.org/W6967410897"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W6967410897","https://openalex.org/W1988512387","https://openalex.org/W2886566836","https://openalex.org/W2169703909","https://openalex.org/W2030729086","https://openalex.org/W2162812814","https://openalex.org/W2147126938","https://openalex.org/W1778259800","https://openalex.org/W2019521517","https://openalex.org/W3135338401"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,42,99],"study":[1],"proposes":[2],"a":[3,33,174],"method":[4,100],"to":[5,25,36,68,95,103,119,149,173,214],"quantify":[6],"uncertainty":[7,211,216],"represented":[8],"by":[9],"errors":[10,206],"in":[11,76,79,115,123,183,217],"very-high-resolution":[12],"near-surface":[13],"analysis,":[14],"specifically":[15],"for":[16,108],"weather":[17,194],"nowcasting":[18,107,143,161],"applications.":[19],"Gaussian":[20,87],"distributed":[21],"perturbations":[22,67,88,202],"are":[23,89],"used":[24],"perturb":[26],"the":[27,39,45,49,52,59,70,97,116,151,163,166,181,184,190,209],"first":[28,53],"guess":[29,54],"and":[30,55,57,106,112,133,212],"observation":[31],"with":[32,91],"variance":[34],"equal":[35],"that":[37,165,199],"of":[38,48,62,139,153,159,177,192],"first-guess":[40],"error.":[41],"error":[43],"reflects":[44],"spatial":[46],"characteristics":[47],"difference":[50],"between":[51],"observations":[56],"dominates":[58],"primary":[60],"sources":[61],"analysis":[63,105,129,140,148,205,210],"uncertainty.":[64,125,141],"However,":[65,180],"mapping":[66],"analyse":[69],"grid":[71],"mesh":[72],"through":[73],"interpolation":[74],"results":[75,158,197],"underdispersion,":[77],"particularly":[78],"areas":[80],"without":[81],"stations.":[82],"To":[83],"address":[84],"this":[85],"issue,":[86],"inflated":[90],"an":[92],"inflation":[93],"factor":[94],"amplify":[96],"dispersion.":[98],"was":[101],"applied":[102],"high-resolution":[104],"hourly":[109],"temperature,":[110],"humidity,":[111],"wind":[113],"components":[114],"Beijing\u2013Tianjin\u2013Hebei":[117],"region":[118],"assess":[120],"its":[121],"effectiveness":[122],"representing":[124],"The":[126,196],"generated":[127],"ensemble":[128,147,160],"exhibits":[130],"reasonable":[131],"spread":[132,167,185],"high":[134],"reliability,":[135],"indicating":[136],"accurate":[137],"quantification":[138],"Ensemble":[142],"is":[144,186],"extrapolated":[145],"from":[146],"evaluate":[150],"transmission":[152],"perturbation":[154],"during":[155,170],"extrapolation.":[156],"Verification":[157],"reflect":[162],"fact":[164],"increases":[168],"effectively":[169,207],"extrapolation":[171],"up":[172],"lead":[175],"time":[176],"6":[178],"h.":[179],"increase":[182],"highly":[187],"dependent":[188],"on":[189,204],"persistence":[191],"numerical":[193],"prediction.":[195],"demonstrate":[198],"generating":[200],"appropriate":[201],"based":[203],"represents":[208],"contributes":[213],"estimating":[215],"nowcasting.":[218]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-12T12:28:57.059296","created_date":"2025-03-11T00:00:00"}
