{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4406150002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","title":"USING ARIMA MODELS FOR FORECASTING OF OVERALL CRIME RATE IN UKRAINE","display_name":"USING ARIMA MODELS FOR FORECASTING OF OVERALL CRIME RATE IN UKRAINE","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4406150002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.23939/ujit2024.02.049"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","doi":"https://doi.org/10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","pdf_url":"https://science.lpnu.ua/sites/default/files/journal-paper/2024/dec/37203/649-56.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220444","display_name":"Ukrainian Journal of Information Technology","issn_l":"2707-1898","issn":["2707-1898","2786-9172"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4383778659","host_organization_name":"Lviv Polytechnic National University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4383778659"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Lviv Polytechnic National University"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Ukrainian Journal of Information Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://science.lpnu.ua/sites/default/files/journal-paper/2024/dec/37203/649-56.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054610260","display_name":"Andrii A. Yarovyi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6668-2425","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6668-2425"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"A. A. Yarovyi","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6668-2425","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051201331","display_name":"O. F. Shevchuk","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8600-0700","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8600-0700"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"O. F. Shevchuk","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8600-0700","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087686821","display_name":"Andrii Kozlovskyi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9697-1511","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9697-1511"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"A. V. Kozlovskyi","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9697-1511","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115802363","display_name":"Yu. M. Panochyshyn","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1546-3422","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1546-3422"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yu. M. Panochyshyn","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1546-3422","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115802364","display_name":"S. V. Simonchuk","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7295-5357","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7295-5357"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"S. V. Simonchuk","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7295-5357","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.2194,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.4737765,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":"6","issue":"2","first_page":"49","last_page":"56"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9437999725341797,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9437999725341797,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.027799999341368675,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10574","display_name":"Crime Patterns and Interventions","score":0.007899999618530273,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arima-model","display_name":"ARIMA model","score":0.921999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ukraine","display_name":"Ukraine","score":0.828000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nonstationarity","display_name":"non-stationarity","score":0.7730000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/orange-revolution","display_name":"Orange Revolution","score":0.7329999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/euromaidan","display_name":"Euromaidan","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logarithmic-transformation","display_name":"logarithmic transformation","score":0.878000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exponential-smoothing","display_name":"exponential smoothing","score":0.5450000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cross-validation","display_name":"cross-validation","score":0.5239999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crime-trends","display_name":"crime trends","score":0.4830000102519989}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.8700986504554749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993718618","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q330344","display_name":"Crime rate","level":2,"score":0.6409773826599121},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133710760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775837","display_name":"Exponential smoothing","level":2,"score":0.5287327766418457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5074495673179626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.46012023091316223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.4581538438796997},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.35543006658554077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.29500532150268555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.21272113919258118},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73484699","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161733","display_name":"Criminology","level":1,"score":0.1907796561717987}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","doi":"https://doi.org/10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","pdf_url":"https://science.lpnu.ua/sites/default/files/journal-paper/2024/dec/37203/649-56.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220444","display_name":"Ukrainian Journal of Information Technology","issn_l":"2707-1898","issn":["2707-1898","2786-9172"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4383778659","host_organization_name":"Lviv Polytechnic National University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4383778659"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Lviv Polytechnic National University"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Ukrainian Journal of Information Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:ir.lib.vntu.edu.ua:123456789/46395","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://ir.lib.vntu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/46395","pdf_url":"https://ir.lib.vntu.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/46395/2/176077.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400934","display_name":"Repository of Vinnytsia National Technical University (Vinnytsia National Technical University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210100610","host_organization_name":"Vinnytsia National Technical University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210100610"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","doi":"https://doi.org/10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.23939/ujit2024.02.049","pdf_url":"https://science.lpnu.ua/sites/default/files/journal-paper/2024/dec/37203/649-56.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220444","display_name":"Ukrainian Journal of Information Technology","issn_l":"2707-1898","issn":["2707-1898","2786-9172"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4383778659","host_organization_name":"Lviv Polytechnic National University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4383778659"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Lviv Polytechnic National University"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Ukrainian Journal of Information Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9200000166893005,"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320315254","display_name":"Innovative Research Group Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4406150002.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4406150002.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":12,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2013731609","https://openalex.org/W2117922789","https://openalex.org/W2124437815","https://openalex.org/W2303675556","https://openalex.org/W2318680928","https://openalex.org/W2908702584","https://openalex.org/W3011828709","https://openalex.org/W4226444555","https://openalex.org/W4328094392","https://openalex.org/W4361799375","https://openalex.org/W4401158170","https://openalex.org/W7102705424"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4414095286","https://openalex.org/W4321326324","https://openalex.org/W3011828709","https://openalex.org/W4281395099","https://openalex.org/W7167595929","https://openalex.org/W7217053370","https://openalex.org/W2902601607","https://openalex.org/W7128905192","https://openalex.org/W3199713561","https://openalex.org/W4414984395"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Crime":[0],"rate":[1,332],"forecasting":[2,21],"is":[3,34,104],"a":[4,17,101,267,272,311,325,340],"critical":[5],"element":[6],"in":[7,16,25,37,62,110,113,122,128,159,186,193,328,333,337],"the":[8,35,42,56,68,75,95,125,141,146,153,170,180,187,194,199,210,226,230,240,250,254,264,274,281,297,304,308,320,329],"development":[9],"of":[10,27,44,59,67,148,175,189,216,239,246,310,343],"strategies":[11],"for":[12,259,266],"sustainable":[13],"socio-economic":[14],"growth":[15],"rule-of-law":[18],"state.":[19],"Accurate":[20],"becomes":[22],"particularly":[23],"important":[24],"times":[26],"economic":[28],"instability":[29],"and":[30,46,89,106,116,133,145,244],"geopolitical":[31],"crises,":[32],"as":[33,83,290],"case":[36],"Ukraine.":[38,63,123],"This":[39],"article":[40],"explores":[41],"problem":[43],"constructing":[45],"applying":[47],"autoregressive":[48],"integrated":[49],"moving":[50,268],"average":[51,269],"(ARIMA)":[52],"models":[53],"to":[54,163,169,225,257],"predict":[55],"total":[57],"number":[58],"crimes":[60],"committed":[61],"The":[64,91,173,214,314],"statistical":[65],"analysis":[66],"crime":[69,96,111,129,156,196,241,331],"time":[70,97,242],"series":[71,98,243],"was":[72,206,219],"conducted":[73],"using":[74,229,303],"Python":[76],"programming":[77],"language,":[78],"utilizing":[79],"specialized":[80],"libraries":[81],"such":[82],"numpy,":[84],"pandas,":[85],"matplotlib,":[86],"statsmodels,":[87],"pmdarima,":[88],"scikit-learn.":[90],"calculations":[92],"indicate":[93,324],"that":[94],"(1990-2023)":[99],"demonstrates":[100],"declining":[102],"trend,":[103],"non-stationary,":[105],"contains":[107],"anomalous":[108,126,247],"values":[109],"rates":[112,130,157],"2003,":[114],"2013,":[115],"2020,":[117],"correlating":[118],"with":[119,136,287,307],"socio-political":[120],"crises":[121],"Specifically,":[124],"increases":[127],"(in":[131],"2003":[132],"2013)":[134],"align":[135],"heightened":[137],"public":[138],"unrest":[139],"preceding":[140],"Orange":[142],"Revolution":[143,147],"(2004-2005)":[144],"Dignity":[149],"(2013-2014).":[150],"In":[151],"contrast,":[152],"unusually":[154],"low":[155],"observed":[158],"2020":[160],"are":[161],"attributed":[162],"restrictive":[164],"quarantine":[165],"measures":[166],"implemented":[167],"due":[168],"COVID-19":[171],"pandemic.":[172],"use":[174],"data":[176],"integration":[177],"by":[178,292],"taking":[179],"first":[181],"differences":[182],"between":[183],"observations":[184],"resulted":[185],"loss":[188],"autocorrelation":[190,261],"structure":[191],"inherent":[192],"overall":[195,330],"series.":[197],"Consequently,":[198],"initial":[200],"ARIMA":[201,255,275,322],"(1,":[202],"0,":[203,277],"0)":[204,278],"model":[205,218,227,256,279,298],"built":[207],"based":[208],"on":[209],"untransformed":[211],"input":[212],"data.":[213],"accuracy":[215,283],"this":[217],"higher":[220],"compared":[221],"(MAPE":[222,234,284],"=":[223,235,285],"8,61%)":[224],"obtained":[228],"exponential":[231],"smoothing":[232,245],"method":[233,306],"9,38%).":[236],"Logarithmic":[237],"transformation":[238],"levels":[248],"enhanced":[249],"predictive":[251],"validity,":[252],"allowing":[253],"account":[258],"additional":[260],"while":[262],"avoiding":[263],"need":[265],"component.":[270],"As":[271],"result,":[273],"(2,":[276],"demonstrated":[280],"highest":[282],"7,04%)":[286],"minimal":[288],"complexity,":[289],"confirmed":[291],"information":[293],"criteria":[294],"results.":[295],"Furthermore,":[296],"successfully":[299],"passed":[300],"robustness":[301],"testing":[302],"cross-validation":[305],"exclusion":[309],"single":[312],"observation.":[313],"forecasted":[315],"estimates,":[316],"derived":[317],"from":[318],"all":[319],"examined":[321],"models,":[323],"continued":[326],"increase":[327],"Ukraine,":[334],"which":[335],"began":[336],"2021":[338],"following":[339],"prolonged":[341],"period":[342],"decline.":[344]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2025-01-08T00:00:00"}