{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4402006095","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","title":"Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over North-East Africa and Arabia: Part 1 - historical simulations","display_name":"Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over North-East Africa and Arabia: Part 1 - historical simulations","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-08-29","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4402006095","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","pdf_url":"https://essopenarchive.org/doi/pdf/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488","source":null,"license":"cc-by-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://essopenarchive.org/doi/pdf/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079404207","display_name":"Moussa Mohamed Waberi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2183-4808","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2183-4808"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I177064439","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Bourgogne","ror":"https://ror.org/03k1bsr36","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I177064439","https://openalex.org/I4405253280"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158426","display_name":"Biog\u00e9osciences","ror":"https://ror.org/04mzqjs78","country_code":"FR","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I159885104","https://openalex.org/I2746051580","https://openalex.org/I4210107625","https://openalex.org/I4210158426","https://openalex.org/I4405253280"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Moussa Mohamed Waberi","raw_affiliation_strings":["CRC / Biog\u00e9osciences, Universite de Bourgogne & Observatoire R\u00e9gional de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Climat (ORREC)"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2183-4808","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CRC / Biog\u00e9osciences, Universite de Bourgogne & Observatoire R\u00e9gional de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Climat (ORREC)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I177064439","https://openalex.org/I4210158426"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064106415","display_name":"Pierre Camberlin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4896-2332","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4896-2332"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I177064439","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Bourgogne","ror":"https://ror.org/03k1bsr36","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I177064439","https://openalex.org/I4405253280"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158426","display_name":"Biog\u00e9osciences","ror":"https://ror.org/04mzqjs78","country_code":"FR","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I159885104","https://openalex.org/I2746051580","https://openalex.org/I4210107625","https://openalex.org/I4210158426","https://openalex.org/I4405253280"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pierre Camberlin","raw_affiliation_strings":["CRC / Biog\u00e9osciences, Universite de Bourgogne"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4896-2332","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CRC / Biog\u00e9osciences, Universite de Bourgogne","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I177064439","https://openalex.org/I4210158426"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051009124","display_name":"Benjamin Pohl","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9339-797X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9339-797X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158426","display_name":"Biog\u00e9osciences","ror":"https://ror.org/04mzqjs78","country_code":"FR","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I159885104","https://openalex.org/I2746051580","https://openalex.org/I4210107625","https://openalex.org/I4210158426","https://openalex.org/I4405253280"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Benjamin Pohl","raw_affiliation_strings":["CRC / Biog\u00e9osciences"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9339-797X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CRC / Biog\u00e9osciences","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158426"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5013514079","display_name":"Juliette Blanchet","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8088-8895","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8088-8895"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I899635006","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 Grenoble Alpes","ror":"https://ror.org/02rx3b187","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I899635006"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Juliette Blanchet","raw_affiliation_strings":["Universite Grenoble Alpes"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8088-8895","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universite Grenoble Alpes","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I899635006"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069947567","display_name":"Omar Assowe Dabar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4095-3194","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4095-3194"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Omar Assowe","raw_affiliation_strings":["Observatoire R\u00e9gional de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Climat (ORREC)"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4095-3194","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Observatoire R\u00e9gional de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Climat (ORREC)","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5079404207"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I177064439","https://openalex.org/I4210158426"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11234","display_name":"Precipitation Measurement and Analysis","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10330","display_name":"Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-precipitation","display_name":"heavy rainfall","score":0.7269999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-precipitation","display_name":"mean precipitation","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/global-climate-model-evaluation","display_name":"global climate model evaluation","score":0.656000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/etccdi-indices","display_name":"ETCCDI indices","score":0.7889999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rainfall-intensity","display_name":"rainfall intensity","score":0.7080000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rain-gauge-validation","display_name":"rain gauge validation","score":0.6470000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-resolution","display_name":"model resolution","score":0.47699999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/northeast-africa","display_name":"Northeast Africa","score":0.9179999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arabian-peninsula","display_name":"Arabian Peninsula","score":0.8009999990463257}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.74226975440979},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.5644553303718567},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.5081281661987305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3403201103210449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100970517","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52107","display_name":"Physical geography","level":1,"score":0.3222159743309021},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.27535271644592285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.1996002197265625}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","pdf_url":"https://essopenarchive.org/doi/pdf/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488","source":null,"license":"cc-by-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488/v1","pdf_url":"https://essopenarchive.org/doi/pdf/10.22541/essoar.172493971.11906488","source":null,"license":"cc-by-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":1.0,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322679","display_name":"International Atomic Energy Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02zt1gg83"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322774","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Bourgogne","ror":"https://ror.org/03k1bsr36"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323942","display_name":"Campus France","ror":"https://ror.org/04wtce741"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332573","display_name":"Centre for Engineering Research and Development","ror":"https://ror.org/04yn30r61"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4402006095.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4402006095.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":67,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1524420836","https://openalex.org/W1543858767","https://openalex.org/W1563227775","https://openalex.org/W1591032703","https://openalex.org/W1726692558","https://openalex.org/W1985217805","https://openalex.org/W2000257837","https://openalex.org/W2000268226","https://openalex.org/W2054078822","https://openalex.org/W2069086966","https://openalex.org/W2083118519","https://openalex.org/W2115295885","https://openalex.org/W2150516764","https://openalex.org/W2152924068","https://openalex.org/W2157455439","https://openalex.org/W2193503481","https://openalex.org/W2279126200","https://openalex.org/W2291818376","https://openalex.org/W2320068620","https://openalex.org/W2508806903","https://openalex.org/W2608303895","https://openalex.org/W2787990554","https://openalex.org/W2794405736","https://openalex.org/W2795550267","https://openalex.org/W2805954170","https://openalex.org/W2884302651","https://openalex.org/W2900538720","https://openalex.org/W2905458031","https://openalex.org/W2947991756","https://openalex.org/W2955660934","https://openalex.org/W2962764966","https://openalex.org/W2964460232","https://openalex.org/W2972332212","https://openalex.org/W2972410153","https://openalex.org/W2986935314","https://openalex.org/W2990584238","https://openalex.org/W2998885490","https://openalex.org/W3015100574","https://openalex.org/W3022010640","https://openalex.org/W3024077375","https://openalex.org/W3025949386","https://openalex.org/W3029800756","https://openalex.org/W3032470950","https://openalex.org/W3037158945","https://openalex.org/W3046894305","https://openalex.org/W3081471422","https://openalex.org/W3092223550","https://openalex.org/W3092401747","https://openalex.org/W3092863039","https://openalex.org/W3116072714","https://openalex.org/W3126429664","https://openalex.org/W3128498258","https://openalex.org/W3157967546","https://openalex.org/W3160190830","https://openalex.org/W3196849555","https://openalex.org/W3213432707","https://openalex.org/W3215889913","https://openalex.org/W4237047386","https://openalex.org/W4292572946","https://openalex.org/W4306844178","https://openalex.org/W4313257333","https://openalex.org/W4328125179","https://openalex.org/W4380087947","https://openalex.org/W4381328227","https://openalex.org/W4388637337","https://openalex.org/W4399276158","https://openalex.org/W4407204411"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3160190830","https://openalex.org/W4360615223","https://openalex.org/W3126429664","https://openalex.org/W3156379792","https://openalex.org/W4417093357","https://openalex.org/W4360612296","https://openalex.org/W4401975574","https://openalex.org/W4405036580","https://openalex.org/W3193403538","https://openalex.org/W6901650641"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"study":[1,227],"proposes":[2],"a":[3,113,164,213],"methodology":[4],"for":[5,100,116,207],"selecting":[6],"global":[7],"climate":[8],"models":[9,141,181,222],"(GCMs)":[10],"from":[11],"the":[12,21,73,78,97,117,132,136,151,187,198,202,208,216,219],"Coupled":[13],"Model":[14],"Intercomparison":[15],"Project":[16],"phase":[17],"6":[18],"(CMIP6)":[19],"on":[20,146],"basis":[22],"of":[23,29,56,72,80,89,119,135,155,201,204,218],"their":[24,147],"ability":[25,148],"to":[26,104,149,162,226],"simulate":[27,75],"characteristics":[28],"mean":[30,81,156,231],"and":[31,37,45,47,66,84,87,109,153,157,176,194,232,238],"extreme":[32,158,233],"precipitation":[33,234],"over":[34,235],"North-East":[35,236],"Africa":[36,237],"Arabia.":[38,239],"The":[39,178],"seasonal":[40,85],"climatology,":[41],"annual":[42],"rainfall":[43,69,82,105,137],"cycles,":[44],"spatial":[46,166],"temporal":[48],"variability":[49],"(as":[50],"documented":[51],"by":[52],"five":[53],"ETCCDI":[54],"indices)":[55],"twenty-five":[57],"GCMs":[58,74],"have":[59,163],"been":[60],"assessed":[61],"against":[62],"rain":[63],"gauge":[64],"observations":[65],"seven":[67],"gridded":[68],"products.":[70],"Most":[71],"reasonably":[76],"well":[77],"climatology":[79],"(annual":[83],"totals":[86],"number":[88],"rainy":[90,210],"days).":[91],"Large":[92],"discrepancies":[93],"are":[94,142],"found":[95],"in":[96,230],"reference":[98],"products":[99],"some":[101],"indices":[102],"related":[103],"intensity":[106],"(SDII,":[107],"P95":[108],"R95ptot),":[110],"which":[111],"is":[112,170],"major":[114],"concern":[115],"validation":[118],"GCMs.":[120],"For":[121],"these":[122],"indices,":[123],"we":[124],"evaluate":[125],"whether":[126],"historical":[127],"CMIP6":[128,140,180,221],"simulations":[129],"fall":[130],"within":[131],"uncertainty":[133],"range":[134],"estimates.":[138],"Ten":[139],"finally":[143],"retained":[144],"based":[145],"reproduce":[150],"geography":[152],"seasonality":[154],"rainfall.":[159],"They":[160],"tend":[161],"higher":[165],"resolution,":[167],"although":[168],"there":[169],"no":[171],"systematic":[172],"relationship":[173],"between":[174],"resolution":[175],"skill.":[177],"selected":[179,220],"perform":[182],"better,":[183],"not":[184],"only":[185],"at":[186,197],"regional":[188],"scale":[189,200],"(by":[190],"construction),":[191],"but":[192],"also,":[193],"more":[195],"meaningfully,":[196],"local":[199],"Republic":[203],"Djibouti":[205],"particularly":[206],"March-to-May":[209],"season.":[211],"In":[212],"companion":[214],"paper,":[215],"projections":[217],"will":[223],"be":[224],"used":[225],"future":[228],"changes":[229]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2024-08-30T00:00:00"}