{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4400366752","doi":"https://doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","title":"Conservative forecast for 2024 of the number of landscape forest fires and the total area covered by them, taking into account the thermal regime prehistory and forest burnability indicators for Krasnoyarsk Krai","display_name":"Conservative forecast for 2024 of the number of landscape forest fires and the total area covered by them, taking into account the thermal regime prehistory and forest burnability indicators for Krasnoyarsk Krai","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-07-02","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4400366752","doi":"https://doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009"},"language":"ru","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","doi":"https://doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","pdf_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4404673769","display_name":"Aktual\u02b9nye problemy bezopasnosti v tehnosfere.","issn_l":"2712-9233","issn":["2712-9233"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"\u0410\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c\u044b \u0431\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0432 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0444\u0435\u0440\u0435","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020591752","display_name":"\u0410\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0440 \u0412\u0430\u0434\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0447 \u0425\u043e\u043b\u043e\u043f\u0446\u0435\u0432","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8293-0062","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8293-0062"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"\u0410.\u0412. \u0425\u043e\u043b\u043e\u043f\u0446\u0435\u0432","raw_affiliation_strings":["Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004569371","display_name":"R. G. Shubkin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7163-8146","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7163-8146"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"\u0420.\u0413. \u0428\u0443\u0431\u043a\u0438\u043d","raw_affiliation_strings":["Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100027764","display_name":"\u041d.\u042e. \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0430","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5068-2968","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5068-2968"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"\u041d.\u042e. \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0430","raw_affiliation_strings":["Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":"2(14)","first_page":"37","last_page":"51"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10555","display_name":"Fire effects on ecosystems","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10555","display_name":"Fire effects on ecosystems","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11753","display_name":"Forest Management and Policy","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1107","display_name":"Forestry"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11317","display_name":"Fire dynamics and safety research","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2213","display_name":"Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wildfire-prediction","display_name":"wildfire prediction","score":0.8090000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/burned-area","display_name":"burned area","score":0.8510000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/krasnoyarsk-krai","display_name":"Krasnoyarsk Krai","score":0.9259999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/air-temperature","display_name":"air temperature","score":0.7990000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/precipitation","display_name":"precipitation","score":0.9430000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/thermal-regime","display_name":"thermal regime","score":0.5659999847412109}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204852536","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11756","display_name":"Prehistory","level":2,"score":0.7947261929512024},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.5540637969970703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100970517","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52107","display_name":"Physical geography","level":1,"score":0.41383177042007446},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.4050786793231964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.24544939398765564}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","doi":"https://doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","pdf_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4404673769","display_name":"Aktual\u02b9nye problemy bezopasnosti v tehnosfere.","issn_l":"2712-9233","issn":["2712-9233"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"\u0410\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c\u044b \u0431\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0432 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0444\u0435\u0440\u0435","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","doi":"https://doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","pdf_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.34987/2712-9233.2024.65.93.009","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4404673769","display_name":"Aktual\u02b9nye problemy bezopasnosti v tehnosfere.","issn_l":"2712-9233","issn":["2712-9233"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"\u0410\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c\u044b \u0431\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0432 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0444\u0435\u0440\u0435","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":1.0,"display_name":"Life on land","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15"},{"score":0.5351999998092651,"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4400366752.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4400366752.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":1,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W4313445952"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7152470321","https://openalex.org/W2784110499","https://openalex.org/W4404501099","https://openalex.org/W4403404555","https://openalex.org/W2946202261","https://openalex.org/W4406624727","https://openalex.org/W7220442896","https://openalex.org/W3151549406","https://openalex.org/W4387816609","https://openalex.org/W2222315666"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"\u041f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d":[0],"\u043a\u043e\u043d\u0441\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0439":[1],"\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437":[2],"\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430":[3],"\u043b\u0435\u0441\u043d\u044b\u0445":[4],"\u043f\u043e\u0436\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0432":[5],"\u0438":[6,31,62],"\u043f\u043b\u043e\u0449\u0430\u0434\u0435\u0439,":[7],"\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0439\u0434\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445":[8],"\u043f\u0440\u0438":[9,64],"\u043d\u0438\u0445":[10],"\u043e\u0433\u043d\u0435\u043c,":[11],"\u0434\u043b\u044f":[12],"\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0440\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0438":[13],"\u041a\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u044f\u0440\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e":[14],"\u043a\u0440\u0430\u044f":[15],"\u043d\u0430":[16,23,55],"\u043f\u043e\u0436\u0430\u0440\u043e\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u044b\u0439":[17],"\u0441\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043d":[18],"2024":[19,111],"\u0433\u043e\u0434.":[20],"\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437":[21],"\u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d":[22],"\u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0435":[24],"\u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445":[25],"\u043e":[26],"\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u0445":[27],"\u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0435\u043c\u0435\u0441\u044f\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445":[28],"\u0442\u0435\u043c\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0443\u0440":[29],"\u0432\u043e\u0437\u0434\u0443\u0445\u0430":[30],"\u043c\u0435\u0441\u044f\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445":[32],"\u0441\u0443\u043c\u043c":[33],"\u0430\u0442\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0444\u0435\u0440\u043d\u044b\u0445":[34],"\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u043e\u0432":[35],"\u0437\u0430":[36],"\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434":[37],"\u0441":[38,43,78],"1997":[39,140],"\u043f\u043e":[40],"2023":[41,142],"\u0433\u0433.":[42],"\u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c":[44],"\u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u0430":[45],"\u043b\u0438\u043d\u0435\u0439\u043d\u043e\u0439":[46],"\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0439":[47],"\u0440\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438.":[48],"\u041f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043d\u043e,":[49],"\u0447\u0442\u043e":[50,66],"\u0441\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0438":[51],"\u0440\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0438\u0442\u0438\u044f":[52],"\u0441\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0442\u0438\u0439,":[53],"\u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435":[54],"\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0449\u0438\u0439":[56],"\u0433\u043e\u0434,":[57],"\u043c\u043e\u0433\u0443\u0442":[58],"\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0430\u0434\u0430\u0442\u044c":[59],"\u0443\u0434\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439":[60],"\u043e\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0434\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c":[61],"\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u044e,":[63],"\u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0438,":[65],"\u0432":[67,81],"\u043a\u0430\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435":[68],"\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0432":[69],"\u0441\u043e\u043e\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0435\u0439":[70],"\u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438":[71],"\u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u0443\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f":[72],"\u0432\u044b\u044f\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435":[73],"\u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b,":[74],"\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435":[75],"\u0441\u0432\u044f\u0437\u0438":[76],"\u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0445":[77],"\u0438\u0437\u0443\u0447\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u043c":[79],"\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u043e\u043c":[80],"\u0441\u043e\u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u043c":[82],"\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434\u0435":[83],"\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0438\u043c\u043e":[84],"\u0443\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f.":[85],"A":[86],"conservative":[87],"forecast":[88,115],"of":[89,92,104,121,126,134,146,156,159,181,188],"the":[90,96,102,108,119,124,137,144,154,157,163,174,182,185,191,198],"number":[91],"forest":[93],"fires":[94],"and":[95,131,170],"areas":[97],"covered":[98],"by":[99],"fire":[100,109],"for":[101,107,136,162],"territory":[103],"Krasnoyarsk":[105],"Krai":[106],"season":[110],"is":[112,116,151],"presented.":[113],"The":[114],"made":[117,161],"on":[118,123],"basis":[120],"data":[122],"values":[125],"average":[127],"monthly":[128,132],"air":[129],"temperatures":[130],"sums":[133],"precipitation":[135],"period":[138],"from":[139],"to":[141],"using":[143],"method":[145],"linear":[147],"multiple":[148],"regression.":[149],"It":[150],"shown":[152],"that":[153,173],"scenarios":[155],"development":[158],"events":[160],"coming":[164],"year":[165],"can":[166],"have":[167],"satisfactory":[168],"justifiability":[169],"accuracy,":[171],"provided":[172],"identified":[175],"factors":[176],"are":[177,194],"used":[178],"as":[179],"predictors":[180],"corresponding":[183],"model,":[184],"statistical":[186],"relations":[187],"which":[189],"with":[190],"studied":[192],"process":[193],"significantly":[195],"strengthened":[196],"in":[197],"present":[199],"period.":[200]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-06T12:05:46.655746","created_date":"2024-07-06T00:00:00"}
