{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4399050680","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","title":"Making Predictions Using Poorly Identified Mathematical Models","display_name":"Making Predictions Using Poorly Identified Mathematical Models","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-05-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4399050680","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38801489","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/11129983"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S118940690","display_name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","issn_l":"0092-8240","issn":["0092-8240","1522-9602"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-2","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5060813398","display_name":"Matthew J. Simpson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6254-313X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6254-313X","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4136-7285"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I160993911","display_name":"Queensland University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/03pnv4752","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I160993911"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Matthew J. Simpson","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. matthew.simpson@qut.edu.au","School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6254-313X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. matthew.simpson@qut.edu.au","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I160993911"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I160993911"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074871064","display_name":"Oliver J. Maclaren","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3982-4539","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3982-4539"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154130895","display_name":"University of Auckland","ror":"https://ror.org/03b94tp07","country_code":"NZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154130895"]}],"countries":["NZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Oliver J. Maclaren","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Engineering Science and Biomedical Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Engineering Science and Biomedical Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154130895"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5060813398"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I160993911"],"apc_list":{"value":3090,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3090},"apc_paid":{"value":3090,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3090},"fwci":2.3083,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":19,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.88243231,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"86","issue":"7","first_page":"80","last_page":"80"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11236","display_name":"Control Systems and Identification","score":0.6381999850273132,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11236","display_name":"Control Systems and Identification","score":0.6381999850273132,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.2705000042915344,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13487","display_name":"Statistical and numerical algorithms","score":0.015200000256299973,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-intervals","display_name":"prediction intervals","score":0.6959999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/parameter-uncertainty","display_name":"parameter uncertainty","score":0.5950000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-growth-models","display_name":"population growth models","score":0.9380000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/likelihood-based-inference","display_name":"likelihood-based inference","score":0.6740000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/julia-programming-language","display_name":"Julia","score":0.4729999899864197}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122770356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1656753","display_name":"Identifiability","level":2,"score":0.9300013780593872},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177212765","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q627335","display_name":"Workflow","level":2,"score":0.8713650107383728},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6985275149345398},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.5778034329414368},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.5776903629302979},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167928553","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1376021","display_name":"Estimation theory","level":2,"score":0.45740535855293274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9652623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190109","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.43848204612731934},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.4292847514152527},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76969082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q486902","display_name":"Mathematical model","level":2,"score":0.4171423316001892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80444323","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2878974","display_name":"Theoretical computer science","level":1,"score":0.3957417905330658},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3479684293270111},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.30414703488349915},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2916339337825775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.2428700029850006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.19457471370697021},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.17496371269226074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.11134269833564758},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77088390","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8513","display_name":"Database","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202444582","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837863","display_name":"Pure mathematics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000465","descriptor_name":"Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011157","descriptor_name":"Population Dynamics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016013","descriptor_name":"Likelihood Functions","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D055641","descriptor_name":"Mathematical Concepts","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D057188","descriptor_name":"Workflow","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S118940690","display_name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","issn_l":"0092-8240","issn":["0092-8240","1522-9602"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-2","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.1101/2023.11.26.568740","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.11.26.568740","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.11.26.568740","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2023/12/09/2023.11.26.568740.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:11129983","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/11129983","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11129983/pdf/11538_2024_Article_1294.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Bull Math Biol","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:38801489","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38801489","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Bulletin of mathematical biology","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01294-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S118940690","display_name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","issn_l":"0092-8240","issn":["0092-8240","1522-9602"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-2","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7432019507","display_name":"New mathematical approaches to learn the equations of life from noisy data","funder_award_id":"DP230100025","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334704","funder_display_name":"Australian Research Council"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320983","display_name":"Queensland University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/03pnv4752"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334704","display_name":"Australian Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/05mmh0f86"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4399050680.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4399050680.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":79,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W86498711","https://openalex.org/W200447247","https://openalex.org/W601580733","https://openalex.org/W629338568","https://openalex.org/W996380913","https://openalex.org/W1549251788","https://openalex.org/W1586486602","https://openalex.org/W1597482516","https://openalex.org/W1975383652","https://openalex.org/W1988374374","https://openalex.org/W1996418705","https://openalex.org/W2003195392","https://openalex.org/W2026691590","https://openalex.org/W2027850261","https://openalex.org/W2029504568","https://openalex.org/W2033783472","https://openalex.org/W2043276874","https://openalex.org/W2050270923","https://openalex.org/W2062815311","https://openalex.org/W2065993280","https://openalex.org/W2070779353","https://openalex.org/W2078140686","https://openalex.org/W2078348833","https://openalex.org/W2085166967","https://openalex.org/W2088106329","https://openalex.org/W2105437542","https://openalex.org/W2114123573","https://openalex.org/W2117681103","https://openalex.org/W2121467746","https://openalex.org/W2122480349","https://openalex.org/W2123669082","https://openalex.org/W2124822779","https://openalex.org/W2131230954","https://openalex.org/W2135300394","https://openalex.org/W2141226754","https://openalex.org/W2149396711","https://openalex.org/W2156995638","https://openalex.org/W2159482231","https://openalex.org/W2161304688","https://openalex.org/W2163783967","https://openalex.org/W2164370473","https://openalex.org/W2166966371","https://openalex.org/W2168648059","https://openalex.org/W2286839562","https://openalex.org/W2310232479","https://openalex.org/W2538433428","https://openalex.org/W2606577756","https://openalex.org/W2772955743","https://openalex.org/W2951561592","https://openalex.org/W2969444038","https://openalex.org/W3010485695","https://openalex.org/W3025987286","https://openalex.org/W3098527589","https://openalex.org/W3104923357","https://openalex.org/W3122855915","https://openalex.org/W3123053372","https://openalex.org/W3137389997","https://openalex.org/W3209456951","https://openalex.org/W3214944849","https://openalex.org/W4221116131","https://openalex.org/W4226096213","https://openalex.org/W4237997615","https://openalex.org/W4243531027","https://openalex.org/W4249113534","https://openalex.org/W4304758198","https://openalex.org/W4308928410","https://openalex.org/W4310707023","https://openalex.org/W4311580200","https://openalex.org/W4317600713","https://openalex.org/W4321503786","https://openalex.org/W4386305723","https://openalex.org/W4386701365","https://openalex.org/W4387168298","https://openalex.org/W4388322985","https://openalex.org/W4389087193","https://openalex.org/W4390754931","https://openalex.org/W4392346161","https://openalex.org/W4392844042","https://openalex.org/W6751060025"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4387168298","https://openalex.org/W7057772644","https://openalex.org/W7128449491","https://openalex.org/W2168648059","https://openalex.org/W7077891780","https://openalex.org/W4417467359","https://openalex.org/W4383720928","https://openalex.org/W4410910320","https://openalex.org/W2969228105","https://openalex.org/W2151389393"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Many":[0],"commonly":[1],"used":[2],"mathematical":[3,9,139,170],"models":[4,71,127,140,171],"in":[5,85,128,148,256,271],"the":[6,19,42,73,99,114,129,145,173,193,232,238],"field":[7],"of":[8,13,23,98,131,202,261,264],"biology":[10],"involve":[11],"challenges":[12],"parameter":[14,30,81,216,221],"non-identifiability.":[15],"Practical":[16],"non-identifiability,":[17,205],"where":[18,44,241],"quality":[20],"and":[21,49,83,94,124,246,259,277],"quantity":[22],"data":[24],"does":[25],"not":[26,52],"provide":[27],"sufficiently":[28],"precise":[29],"estimates":[31],"is":[32,53,90,275],"often":[33,54],"encountered,":[34],"even":[35],"with":[36,103,137,158,168,181,198,204],"relatively":[37,159],"simple":[38,91,132,138,169],"models.":[39,135],"In":[40,56,108],"particular,":[41],"situation":[43,240],"some":[45,224,242,257],"parameters":[46,243],"are":[47,51,244,248],"identifiable":[48,105,245],"others":[50,247],"encountered.":[55],"this":[57,109],"work":[58],"we":[59,111,229],"apply":[60],"a":[61,86,149,199,272],"recent":[62],"likelihood-based":[63],"workflow,":[64],"called":[65],"Profile-Wise":[66],"Analysis":[67],"(PWA),":[68],"to":[69,92,120,143,178,208,223,252],"non-identifiable":[70,123,126],"for":[72],"first":[74],"time.":[75],"The":[76],"PWA":[77,115,146,174,194,233],"workflow":[78,100,116,147,175,195,234],"addresses":[79],"identifiability,":[80],"estimation,":[82],"prediction":[84,176,186],"unified":[87],"framework":[88],"that":[89,153,231,274],"implement":[93],"interpret.":[95],"Previous":[96],"implementations":[97],"have":[101],"dealt":[102],"idealised":[104],"problems":[106],"only.":[107],"study":[110],"illustrate":[112,191],"how":[113,192,254],"can":[117,154],"be":[118,155,179],"applied":[119],"both":[121],"structurally":[122],"practically":[125],"context":[130],"population":[133],"growth":[134],"Dealing":[136],"allows":[141,172],"us":[142,197,251],"present":[144],"didactic,":[150],"self-contained":[151],"document":[152],"studied":[156],"together":[157],"straightforward":[160],"Julia":[161],"code":[162],"provided":[163],"on":[164],"GitHub":[165],".":[166],"Working":[167],"intervals":[177],"compared":[180,207],"gold":[182],"standard":[183],"full":[184],"likelihood":[185],"intervals.":[187],"Together,":[188],"our":[189],"examples":[190],"provides":[196,235],"systematic":[200],"way":[201,273],"dealing":[203],"especially":[206],"other":[209],"approaches,":[210],"such":[211],"as":[212],"seeking":[213],"ad":[214],"hoc":[215],"combinations,":[217],"or":[218],"simply":[219],"setting":[220],"values":[222],"arbitrary":[225],"default":[226],"value.":[227],"Importantly,":[228],"show":[230],"insight":[236],"into":[237],"commonly-encountered":[239],"not,":[249],"allowing":[250],"explore":[253],"uncertainty":[255],"parameters,":[258,262],"combinations":[260],"regardless":[263],"their":[265],"identifiability":[266],"status,":[267],"influences":[268],"model":[269],"predictions":[270],"insightful":[276],"interpretable.":[278]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-12T12:28:57.059296","created_date":"2024-05-28T00:00:00"}
