{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4398202128","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019","title":"Forecasting and Anomaly Detection in BEWS: Comparative Study of Theta, Croston, and Prophet Algorithms","display_name":"Forecasting and Anomaly Detection in BEWS: Comparative Study of Theta, Croston, and Prophet Algorithms","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-05-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4398202128","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/forecast6020019","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210194518","display_name":"Forecasting","issn_l":"2571-9394","issn":["2571-9394"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020326825","display_name":"Aleksandr N. Grekov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-5615","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-5615"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210141141","display_name":"Institute of Natural and Technical Systems","ror":"https://ror.org/03f6hbh92","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210141141"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Aleksandr N. Grekov","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, 299011 Sevastopol, Russia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5816-5615","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, 299011 Sevastopol, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210141141"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081652139","display_name":"Elena V. Vyshkvarkova","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4890-3247","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4890-3247"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210141141","display_name":"Institute of Natural and Technical Systems","ror":"https://ror.org/03f6hbh92","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210141141"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Elena V. Vyshkvarkova","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, 299011 Sevastopol, Russia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4890-3247","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, 299011 Sevastopol, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210141141"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045588931","display_name":"\u041c\u0430\u0432\u0440\u0438\u043d \u0410\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0440 \u0421\u0435\u0440\u0433\u0435\u0435\u0432\u0438\u0447","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5488-8004","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5488-8004"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210141141","display_name":"Institute of Natural and Technical Systems","ror":"https://ror.org/03f6hbh92","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210141141"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Aleksandr S. Mavrin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, 299011 Sevastopol, Russia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5488-8004","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, 299011 Sevastopol, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210141141"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5081652139"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210141141"],"apc_list":{"value":1800,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2046},"apc_paid":{"value":1800,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2046},"fwci":0.633,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":6,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.66129702,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"6","issue":"2","first_page":"343","last_page":"356"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11512","display_name":"Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications","score":0.3499000072479248,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11512","display_name":"Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications","score":0.3499000072479248,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.14749999344348907,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12697","display_name":"Water Quality Monitoring Technologies","score":0.06610000133514404,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biological-early-warning-systems","display_name":"biological early warning systems","score":0.9919999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/anomaly-detection","display_name":"anomaly detection","score":0.8429999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-forecasting","display_name":"time series forecasting","score":0.8970000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/theta-method","display_name":"theta method","score":0.8119999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/croston-method","display_name":"Croston method","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prophets","display_name":"prophets","score":0.8230000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/water-pollution-indicators","display_name":"water pollution indicators","score":0.8140000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/water-quality-monitoring","display_name":"water quality monitoring","score":0.9179999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computational-speed-comparison","display_name":"computational speed comparison","score":0.4300000071525574}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C739882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3560506","display_name":"Anomaly detection","level":2,"score":0.7421265244483948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12997251","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q567560","display_name":"Anomaly (physics)","level":2,"score":0.6888934969902039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.6597586870193481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153823671","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1049799","display_name":"Water resources","level":2,"score":0.5355019569396973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.5321713089942932},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5111222863197327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779296788","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5326904","display_name":"Early warning system","level":3,"score":0.48233410716056824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.4615137577056885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.4556373655796051},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777904410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7397","display_name":"Software","level":2,"score":0.442879319190979},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780797713","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q625376","display_name":"Water quality","level":2,"score":0.4357427656650543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206345919","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q20380951","display_name":"Resource (disambiguation)","level":2,"score":0.42325106263160706},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.4090555012226105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3404614329338074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.16242387890815735},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0798482596874237},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26873012","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q214781","display_name":"Condensed matter physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C31258907","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1301371","display_name":"Computer network","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/forecast6020019","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210194518","display_name":"Forecasting","issn_l":"2571-9394","issn":["2571-9394"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:gam:jforec:v:6:y:2024:i:2:p:19-356:d:1398858","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/6/2/19/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:0d81820c1e3843058b98ee9739ef9ae7","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/0d81820c1e3843058b98ee9739ef9ae7","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Forecasting, Vol 6, Iss 2, Pp 343-356 (2024)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/forecast6020019","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210194518","display_name":"Forecasting","issn_l":"2571-9394","issn":["2571-9394"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.965499997138977,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/6","display_name":"Clean water and sanitation"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4302129707","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"23-29-00558","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324099","funder_display_name":"Russian Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324099","display_name":"Russian Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/03y2gwe85"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":54,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W800662883","https://openalex.org/W1973845869","https://openalex.org/W1977698057","https://openalex.org/W1982458122","https://openalex.org/W1989787309","https://openalex.org/W1992866626","https://openalex.org/W1999927632","https://openalex.org/W2001031523","https://openalex.org/W2019887556","https://openalex.org/W2045199291","https://openalex.org/W2070342981","https://openalex.org/W2101234009","https://openalex.org/W2101906966","https://openalex.org/W2104641679","https://openalex.org/W2144990459","https://openalex.org/W2158956509","https://openalex.org/W2181523240","https://openalex.org/W2416082767","https://openalex.org/W2515822248","https://openalex.org/W2581974582","https://openalex.org/W2620661538","https://openalex.org/W2747599906","https://openalex.org/W2963507686","https://openalex.org/W2979392096","https://openalex.org/W3000084637","https://openalex.org/W3000877276","https://openalex.org/W3085119257","https://openalex.org/W3116675535","https://openalex.org/W3124982258","https://openalex.org/W3174474688","https://openalex.org/W3184704880","https://openalex.org/W3200809940","https://openalex.org/W3202971245","https://openalex.org/W4212781379","https://openalex.org/W4225259136","https://openalex.org/W4230765542","https://openalex.org/W4284880463","https://openalex.org/W4286486917","https://openalex.org/W4309268416","https://openalex.org/W4318473773","https://openalex.org/W4322743747","https://openalex.org/W4327500115","https://openalex.org/W4377290735","https://openalex.org/W4382137258","https://openalex.org/W4382769639","https://openalex.org/W4384338625","https://openalex.org/W4385880739","https://openalex.org/W4386031979","https://openalex.org/W4386255832","https://openalex.org/W4387540069","https://openalex.org/W4388453670","https://openalex.org/W4390458815","https://openalex.org/W4394919171","https://openalex.org/W4395666524"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7129021466","https://openalex.org/W4322743747","https://openalex.org/W4389463337","https://openalex.org/W2990765082","https://openalex.org/W2070342981","https://openalex.org/W4401131389","https://openalex.org/W4307959953","https://openalex.org/W7166436722","https://openalex.org/W3171770906","https://openalex.org/W4409456876"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Evaluation":[0],"of":[1,7,24,43,55,101,126,130,136,151],"water":[2,8,15,19],"quality":[3],"and":[4,18,48,69,109],"accurate":[5],"prediction":[6],"pollution":[9,20],"indicators":[10],"are":[11,34],"key":[12],"components":[13],"in":[14,30,52,89,128,161],"resource":[16],"management":[17],"control.":[21],"The":[22],"use":[23],"biological":[25,152],"early":[26,153],"warning":[27,154],"systems":[28],"(BEWS),":[29],"which":[31],"living":[32],"organisms":[33],"used":[35],"as":[36],"biosensors,":[37],"allows":[38],"for":[39,86,99,110],"a":[40,49],"comprehensive":[41],"assessment":[42],"the":[44,53,78,82,102,106,111,114,122,134,137,149,162],"aquatic":[45,163],"environment":[46],"state":[47],"timely":[50],"response":[51],"event":[54],"an":[56],"emergency.":[57],"In":[58],"this":[59],"paper,":[60],"we":[61],"examine":[62],"three":[63],"machine":[64],"learning":[65],"algorithms":[66],"(Theta,":[67],"Croston":[68,138],"Prophet)":[70],"to":[71,159],"forecast":[72],"bivalves\u2019":[73,90],"activity":[74,91],"data":[75,92],"obtained":[76],"from":[77],"BEWS":[79],"developed":[80],"by":[81],"authors.":[83],"An":[84],"algorithm":[85,143],"anomalies":[87],"detection":[88,116,142],"was":[93,105],"developed.":[94],"Our":[95],"results":[96],"showed":[97,133],"that":[98],"one":[100],"anomalies,":[103],"Prophet":[104],"best":[107],"method,":[108],"other":[112],"two,":[113],"anomaly":[115,141],"time":[117],"did":[118],"not":[119],"differ":[120],"between":[121],"methods.":[123],"A":[124],"comparison":[125],"methods":[127],"terms":[129],"computational":[131],"speed":[132],"advantage":[135],"method.":[139],"This":[140],"can":[144],"be":[145],"effectively":[146],"incorporated":[147],"into":[148],"software":[150],"systems,":[155],"facilitating":[156],"rapid":[157],"responses":[158],"changes":[160],"environment.":[164]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2024-05-23T00:00:00"}
