{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4394978232","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241248866","title":"Developing and testing the efficacy of a novel forecasting methodology: Theory and evidence from China","display_name":"Developing and testing the efficacy of a novel forecasting methodology: Theory and evidence from China","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-04-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4394978232","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241248866"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/13548166241248866","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241248866","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241248866","pdf_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/13548166241248866?download=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S201197719","display_name":"Tourism Economics","issn_l":"1354-8166","issn":["1354-8166","2044-0375"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-4","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Tourism Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/13548166241248866?download=true","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Yuhong Yang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4800084","display_name":"Southwest Jiaotong University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hn7w693","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4800084"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yuhong Yang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Southwest Jiaotong University, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Southwest Jiaotong University, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4800084"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026820627","display_name":"Tarik Do\u011fru","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1149-0805","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1149-0805"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103163165","display_name":"Florida State University","ror":"https://ror.org/05g3dte14","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Tarik Dogru","raw_affiliation_strings":["Florida State University, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1149-0805","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Florida State University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001858141","display_name":"Chao Liang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8535-5139","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8535-5139","https://orcid.org/0009-0001-8560-3163","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0400-2049"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4800084","display_name":"Southwest Jiaotong University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hn7w693","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4800084"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chao Liang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Southwest Jiaotong University, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Southwest Jiaotong University, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4800084"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073910834","display_name":"Jianqiong Wang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4800084","display_name":"Southwest Jiaotong University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hn7w693","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4800084"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jianqiong Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Southwest Jiaotong University, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Southwest Jiaotong University, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4800084"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036920297","display_name":"Pengfei Xu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3144-2779","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3144-2779"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4800084","display_name":"Southwest Jiaotong University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hn7w693","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4800084"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pengfei Xu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Southwest Jiaotong University, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Southwest Jiaotong University, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4800084"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5026820627"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"],"apc_list":{"value":3700,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3700},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.6582,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":3,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.6724454,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"30","issue":"8","first_page":"2043","last_page":"2069"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9868000149726868,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9868000149726868,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.004399999976158142,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10055","display_name":"Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research","score":0.002199999988079071,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1409","display_name":"Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tourism-demand-forecasting","display_name":"tourism demand forecasting","score":0.8740000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/principal-component-analysis","display_name":"principal component analysis","score":0.7369999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/long-short-term-memory-networks","display_name":"long short-term memory networks","score":0.9369999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baidu-index","display_name":"Baidu Index","score":0.9660000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/search-engine-data","display_name":"search engine data","score":0.4830000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/word2vec","display_name":"Word2Vec","score":0.9390000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19-impact-on-tourism","display_name":"COVID-19 impact on tourism","score":0.8700000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tourist-attractions","display_name":"tourist attractions","score":0.7250000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/china","display_name":"China","score":0.7239999771118164}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191935318","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q148","display_name":"China","level":2,"score":0.5256032943725586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5130623579025269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.42552271485328674},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83864248","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177323","display_name":"Developing country","level":2,"score":0.4189336895942688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.1079666018486023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50522688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189833","display_name":"Economic growth","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/13548166241248866","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241248866","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241248866","pdf_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/13548166241248866?download=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S201197719","display_name":"Tourism Economics","issn_l":"1354-8166","issn":["1354-8166","2044-0375"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-4","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Tourism Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:sae:toueco:v:30:y:2024:i:8:p:2043-2069","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13548166241248866","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/13548166241248866","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241248866","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241248866","pdf_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/13548166241248866?download=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S201197719","display_name":"Tourism Economics","issn_l":"1354-8166","issn":["1354-8166","2044-0375"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-4","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Tourism Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4394978232.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4394978232.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":40,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1976208382","https://openalex.org/W2025391890","https://openalex.org/W2038642139","https://openalex.org/W2086074129","https://openalex.org/W2133804059","https://openalex.org/W2141256898","https://openalex.org/W2304536135","https://openalex.org/W2729725058","https://openalex.org/W2781561856","https://openalex.org/W2788908805","https://openalex.org/W2794726811","https://openalex.org/W2884741544","https://openalex.org/W2902021342","https://openalex.org/W2939264787","https://openalex.org/W2973402705","https://openalex.org/W2980378589","https://openalex.org/W2995464885","https://openalex.org/W3001012992","https://openalex.org/W3005604324","https://openalex.org/W3017855717","https://openalex.org/W3022716520","https://openalex.org/W3033852675","https://openalex.org/W3037596256","https://openalex.org/W3094178485","https://openalex.org/W3097577640","https://openalex.org/W3108714172","https://openalex.org/W3119856702","https://openalex.org/W3132043671","https://openalex.org/W3144041472","https://openalex.org/W3195721812","https://openalex.org/W3196345400","https://openalex.org/W4205274380","https://openalex.org/W4206585456","https://openalex.org/W4211034950","https://openalex.org/W4225080745","https://openalex.org/W4225891344","https://openalex.org/W4239025696","https://openalex.org/W4243100117","https://openalex.org/W4285744459","https://openalex.org/W4387393951"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4382699706","https://openalex.org/W3036222565","https://openalex.org/W4387055976","https://openalex.org/W4372325364","https://openalex.org/W2884741544","https://openalex.org/W2794726811","https://openalex.org/W3195721812","https://openalex.org/W2999959058","https://openalex.org/W2786463969","https://openalex.org/W4323663127"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Numerous":[0],"methodologies":[1],"have":[2],"been":[3,13,115],"offered":[4],"to":[5,52,73,97],"forecast":[6,53],"tourism":[7,24],"demand;":[8],"however,":[9],"accurate":[10],"forecasting":[11,33,122],"has":[12,113],"a":[14,31,58,65],"major":[15],"challenge":[16],"for":[17,23,57],"policymakers":[18],"despite":[19],"its":[20],"critical":[21],"importance":[22],"planning.":[25],"Therefore,":[26],"we":[27],"propose":[28],"and":[29,41,77,100,126,142,145],"test":[30],"novel":[32],"methodology":[34,123],"that":[35,130],"combines":[36],"principal":[37],"component":[38],"analysis":[39],"(PCA)":[40],"long":[42],"short-term":[43],"memory":[44],"(LSTM)":[45],"network,":[46,93],"along":[47],"with":[48],"the":[49,75,83,86,91,102,105,108,120,127,131],"Baidu":[50,87],"index,":[51],"daily":[54],"tourist":[55,60],"arrivals":[56],"popular":[59],"attraction":[61],"in":[62,82,137],"China.":[63],"Word2Vec,":[64],"software":[66],"tool":[67],"launched":[68],"by":[69],"Google,":[70],"is":[71,95,124],"used":[72,96],"improve":[74],"coverage":[76],"accuracy":[78,141],"of":[79,85,110,119,139],"search":[80],"keywords":[81],"construction":[84],"indexes.":[88],"Before":[89],"training":[90],"LSTM":[92],"PCA":[94],"reduce":[98],"noise":[99],"optimize":[101],"data.":[103],"Considering":[104],"study\u2019s":[106],"timeframe,":[107],"impact":[109],"COVID-19":[111],"pandemic":[112],"also":[114],"assessed.":[116],"The":[117],"efficacy":[118],"proposed":[121],"verified,":[125],"results":[128],"show":[129],"PCA-LSTM":[132],"model":[133],"outperforms":[134],"other":[135],"models":[136],"terms":[138],"prediction":[140],"stability.":[143],"Theoretical":[144],"practical":[146],"implications":[147],"are":[148],"discussed.":[149]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2024-04-21T00:00:00"}