{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4388980266","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","title":"On the limits to invasion prediction using coexistence outcomes","display_name":"On the limits to invasion prediction using coexistence outcomes","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-03-25","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4388980266","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38008157"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S109682412","display_name":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","issn_l":"0022-5193","issn":["0022-5193","1095-8541"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069454754","display_name":"Jie Deng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0604-7884","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0604-7884"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63966007","display_name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/042nb2s44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jie Deng","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA. Electronic address: jiedeng@mit.edu","Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0604-7884","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA. Electronic address: jiedeng@mit.edu","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028633108","display_name":"Washington Taylor","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8566-6706","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8566-6706"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63966007","display_name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/042nb2s44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Washington Taylor","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Theoretical Physics, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8566-6706","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Theoretical Physics, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077712228","display_name":"Simon A. Levin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8216-5639","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8216-5639"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I20089843","display_name":"Princeton University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hx57361","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405268937","display_name":"High Meadows Environmental Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/02hgay921","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Simon A. Levin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA; High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA","Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA","High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA; High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843","https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843","https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033643258","display_name":"Serguei Saavedra","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1768-363X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1768-363X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1308548392","display_name":"Santa Fe Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/01arysc35","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308548392"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63966007","display_name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/042nb2s44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Serguei Saavedra","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA","Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA","Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1308548392","https://openalex.org/I63966007"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1308548392"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5069454754"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"],"apc_list":{"value":2360,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2360},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.1651,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":5,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.77587667,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"577","issue":null,"first_page":"111674","last_page":"111674"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.9394999742507935,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.9394999742507935,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10005","display_name":"Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies","score":0.050200000405311584,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2309","display_name":"Nature and Landscape Conservation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":0.004999999888241291,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/invasion-dynamics","display_name":"invasion dynamics","score":0.7459999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/community-coexistence","display_name":"community coexistence","score":0.8790000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lotka-volterra-model","display_name":"Lotka-Volterra model","score":0.7639999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/invasion-prediction","display_name":"invasion prediction","score":0.6430000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/colonization-probability","display_name":"colonization probability","score":0.7210000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/community-persistence","display_name":"community persistence","score":0.8259999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exclusion-probability","display_name":"exclusion probability","score":0.7749999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-uncertainty","display_name":"environmental uncertainty","score":0.921999990940094}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.7911344766616821},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6999642848968506},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145912823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q113558","display_name":"Dynamics (music)","level":2,"score":0.5718256831169128},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.506121814250946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781009140","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7170389","display_name":"Persistence (discontinuity)","level":2,"score":0.48731908202171326},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.47614502906799316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3736528158187866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121864883","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q677916","display_name":"Statistical physics","level":1,"score":0.35523104667663574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.30223318934440613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.20734038949012756},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.19992446899414062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.1531815230846405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.1431618332862854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.09039971232414246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.08293965458869934},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19417346","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7922","display_name":"Pedagogy","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187320778","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1349130","display_name":"Geotechnical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011157","descriptor_name":"Population Dynamics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011336","descriptor_name":"Probability","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D017753","descriptor_name":"Ecosystem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058448","descriptor_name":"Biota","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S109682412","display_name":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","issn_l":"0022-5193","issn":["0022-5193","1095-8541"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.1101/2023.03.23.533987","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.23.533987","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.23.533987","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2023/04/20/2023.03.23.533987.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmid:38008157","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38008157","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of theoretical biology","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111674","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S109682412","display_name":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","issn_l":"0022-5193","issn":["0022-5193","1095-8541"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","score":0.7605999708175659,"display_name":"Life on land"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1761480223","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"W911NF1810325","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338281","funder_display_name":"Army Research Office"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3062787821","display_name":"EAGER: Bioforecasting: understanding and predicting species persistence in ecological communities under changing environments","funder_award_id":"2024349","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3342962000","display_name":"Collaborative Research: Consequences of Environmental Stochasticity for the Spatial Dynamics of Savanna-Forest Transitions","funder_award_id":"1951358","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338281","display_name":"Army Research Office","ror":"https://ror.org/05epdh915"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4388980266.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4388980266.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":71,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W118555614","https://openalex.org/W1488045558","https://openalex.org/W1968550804","https://openalex.org/W1987964015","https://openalex.org/W1994507967","https://openalex.org/W2001155312","https://openalex.org/W2001220695","https://openalex.org/W2002732070","https://openalex.org/W2047919241","https://openalex.org/W2060501565","https://openalex.org/W2062846241","https://openalex.org/W2085728653","https://openalex.org/W2087641521","https://openalex.org/W2093150039","https://openalex.org/W2104183609","https://openalex.org/W2106844219","https://openalex.org/W2115964563","https://openalex.org/W2134173371","https://openalex.org/W2153248731","https://openalex.org/W2165570672","https://openalex.org/W2168409038","https://openalex.org/W2240752256","https://openalex.org/W2259801033","https://openalex.org/W2275853531","https://openalex.org/W2288563613","https://openalex.org/W2321690872","https://openalex.org/W2323794735","https://openalex.org/W2502170228","https://openalex.org/W2525840300","https://openalex.org/W2606411644","https://openalex.org/W2620178380","https://openalex.org/W2748485127","https://openalex.org/W2766513487","https://openalex.org/W2793658232","https://openalex.org/W2799552388","https://openalex.org/W2806239797","https://openalex.org/W2808078989","https://openalex.org/W2902868023","https://openalex.org/W2952570005","https://openalex.org/W2956240612","https://openalex.org/W2994701726","https://openalex.org/W3036872905","https://openalex.org/W3048461476","https://openalex.org/W3087361392","https://openalex.org/W3104870292","https://openalex.org/W3137622847","https://openalex.org/W3146208393","https://openalex.org/W3157501252","https://openalex.org/W3163850423","https://openalex.org/W3164037342","https://openalex.org/W3165852491","https://openalex.org/W3168907012","https://openalex.org/W3186763329","https://openalex.org/W3198009659","https://openalex.org/W3203331177","https://openalex.org/W3207363230","https://openalex.org/W3216864139","https://openalex.org/W4210516060","https://openalex.org/W4210864836","https://openalex.org/W4285592678","https://openalex.org/W4294798352","https://openalex.org/W4302079205","https://openalex.org/W4303672012","https://openalex.org/W4306690916","https://openalex.org/W4360990633","https://openalex.org/W4361731096","https://openalex.org/W4375956177","https://openalex.org/W4384926541","https://openalex.org/W4385377605","https://openalex.org/W6654261558","https://openalex.org/W7051934559"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4409699562","https://openalex.org/W7044015692","https://openalex.org/W4306690916","https://openalex.org/W6979211371","https://openalex.org/W4281857841","https://openalex.org/W3081304985","https://openalex.org/W2939968937","https://openalex.org/W2001220695","https://openalex.org/W4406104109","https://openalex.org/W2956212362"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2023-11-25T00:00:00"}