{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4388945103","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794","title":"Evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong Province, China: An endemic-epidemic modeling study (Preprint)","display_name":"Evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong Province, China: An endemic-epidemic modeling study (Preprint)","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-11-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4388945103","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2196/preprints.54794","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101853931","display_name":"Zitong Huang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7936-4963","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7936-4963"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zitong Huang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059101226","display_name":"Liling Lin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5487-1758","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5487-1758"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Liling Lin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100358701","display_name":"Xing Li","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2836-0959","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2836-0959"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xing Li","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112750459","display_name":"Zuhua Rong","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zuhua Rong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082556337","display_name":"Jianxiong Hu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4180-3187","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4180-3187"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jianxiong Hu","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047330887","display_name":"Jianguo Zhao","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jianguo Zhao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111079221","display_name":"Weilin Zeng","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Weilin Zeng","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102208579","display_name":"Zhihua Zhu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhihua Zhu","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100709211","display_name":"Yihong Li","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5476-1943","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5476-1943"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yihong Li","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016062991","display_name":"Yun-Ju Huang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6226-6635","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6226-6635"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yun Huang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100425633","display_name":"Li Zhang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7337-1983","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7337-1983"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Li Zhang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Dexin Gong","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dexin Gong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102578004","display_name":"Jiaqing Xu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jiaqing Xu","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Yan Li","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yan Li","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064466730","display_name":"Wangjian Zhang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9655-6385","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9655-6385"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wangjian Zhang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068614756","display_name":"Yuantao Hao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8024-5312","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8024-5312","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4146-9262"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yuantao Hao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8024-5312","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5008885437","display_name":"Jianpeng Xiao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9665-6036","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9665-6036"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jianpeng Xiao","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112865799","display_name":"Lifeng Lin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3562-9816","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3562-9816","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0330-300X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lifeng Lin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9929999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/guangdong-province","display_name":"Guangdong","score":0.7820000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spatiotemporal-dynamics","display_name":"spatiotemporal dynamics","score":0.8019999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/effective-reproduction-number","display_name":"effective reproduction number","score":0.8650000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-health-interventions","display_name":"public health interventions","score":0.8130000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dongguan","display_name":"Dongguan","score":0.6639999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shenzhen","display_name":"Shenzhen","score":0.7390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/zhanjiang","display_name":"Zhanjiang","score":0.8799999952316284}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191935318","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q148","display_name":"China","level":2,"score":0.722111701965332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.6875808238983154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.6522059440612793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.6418096423149109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2910825464","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q506680","display_name":"Endemic diseases","level":2,"score":0.5165483355522156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.44356605410575867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107130276","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133805","display_name":"Epidemiology","level":2,"score":0.4416447877883911},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.44130098819732666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138816342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189603","display_name":"Public health","level":2,"score":0.4375040531158447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45355965","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1643441","display_name":"Socioeconomics","level":1,"score":0.4371996819972992},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43169469","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580922","display_name":"Preprint","level":2,"score":0.43054479360580444},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.31555265188217163},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.2838473320007324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.08426198363304138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.07912582159042358},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118552586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7867","display_name":"Psychiatry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159110408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121176","display_name":"Nursing","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2196/preprints.54794","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2196/preprints.54794","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/preprints.54794","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.9476000070571899,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4403069932","https://openalex.org/W4200369140","https://openalex.org/W4328003522","https://openalex.org/W3013862524","https://openalex.org/W3093953312","https://openalex.org/W3115272956","https://openalex.org/W3123734668","https://openalex.org/W3017843887","https://openalex.org/W4412869873","https://openalex.org/W4407097226"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"BACKGROUND":[0],"Background:":[1],"From":[2],"January":[3,51,119],"2020":[4,52,120],"to":[5,25,53,85,94,121,132,259],"June":[6,54,122],"2022,":[7],"strict":[8,246],"public":[9],"health":[10],"interventions":[11,49,255,258],"against":[12],"COVID-19":[13,33,45,102,109,237],"were":[14,59,64],"implemented":[15],"in":[16,35,38,56,110,137,155,174,199,238],"Guangdong":[17,36,57,111,239],"Province,":[18,240],"China.":[19],"OBJECTIVE":[20],"Objectives:":[21],"This":[22],"study":[23,224],"aims":[24],"investigate":[26],"the":[27,67,88,96,142,191,194,215,223,231,243,251,261],"evolution":[28,97],"of":[29,44,98,108,135,163,182,190,207,233,236,245,263],"within-":[30,99],"and":[31,47,66,92,100,130,158,166,177,185,202,210,256],"between-city":[32,101],"dynamics":[34],"Province":[37,58,112],"this":[39],"period.":[40,225],"METHODS":[41],"Methods:":[42],"Data":[43],"cases":[46],"synchronous":[48],"from":[50,118,141,152],"2022":[55],"collected.":[60],"The":[61,106,124,188,228],"epidemiological":[62],"characteristics":[63],"described,":[65],"effective":[68],"reproduction":[69],"number":[70],"(Rt)":[71],"was":[72,83,113,171,197],"estimated":[73],"using":[74],"a":[75,133,148],"sequential":[76],"Bayesian":[77],"method.":[78],"Endemic-epidemic":[79],"multivariate":[80,144],"time-series":[81,145],"model":[82,146],"employed":[84],"quantitatively":[86],"analyze":[87],"spatiotemporal":[89,234],"component":[90],"values":[91],"variations,":[93],"identify":[95],"dynamics.":[103],"RESULTS":[104],"Results:":[105],"incidence":[107],"12.6/100,000":[114],"population":[115],"(15,989":[116],"cases)":[117],"2022.":[123],"Rt":[125],"predominantly":[126],"remained":[127],"below":[128],"1":[129],"increased":[131],"peak":[134],"1.68":[136],"Stage":[138],"5.":[139],"Results":[140],"endemic-epidemic":[143,216],"revealed":[147],"strong":[149],"follow-up":[150],"impact":[151,189],"previous":[153],"infections":[154],"Dongguan,":[156],"Guangzhou":[157],"Zhanjiang,":[159,200],"with":[160,179,204,242],"autoregressive":[161],"components":[162,181,206,217],"0.48,":[164],"0.45":[165],"0.36,":[167],"respectively.":[168,187,212],"Local":[169],"risk":[170],"relative":[172],"high":[173],"Yunfu,":[175],"Shanwei":[176],"Shenzhen,":[178],"endemic":[180],"1.17,":[183],"1.04":[184],"0.71,":[186],"epidemic":[192,205,262],"on":[193],"neighboring":[195],"regions":[196],"significant":[198],"Shenzhen":[201],"Zhuhai,":[203],"2.14,":[208],"1.92,":[209],"1.89,":[211],"In":[213],"addition,":[214],"have":[218],"been":[219],"dynamic":[220],"transformation":[221],"during":[222],"CONCLUSIONS":[226],"Conclusion:":[227],"findings":[229],"indicate":[230],"presence":[232],"variation":[235],"even":[241],"implementation":[244],"interventions.":[247],"These":[248],"results":[249],"underscore":[250],"need":[252],"for":[253],"specific":[254],"coordinated":[257],"control":[260],"COVID-19.":[264]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2023-11-24T00:00:00"}