{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4387601410","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594","title":"Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought\u2013heatwave event and its changing likelihood","display_name":"Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought\u2013heatwave event and its changing likelihood","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-10-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4387601410","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/qj.4594","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S70522100","display_name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","issn_l":"0035-9009","issn":["0035-9009","1477-870X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5043361929","display_name":"Elizabeth Kendon","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1538-2147","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1538-2147"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","display_name":"University of Bristol","ror":"https://ror.org/0524sp257","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Elizabeth J. Kendon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Science, Bristol University, Bristol, UK","Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1538-2147","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Science, Bristol University, Bristol, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113022244","display_name":"Andy Ciavarella","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andy Ciavarella","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022004793","display_name":"Mark McCarthy","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2692-1417","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2692-1417"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mark McCarthy","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Simon Brown","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Simon Brown","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021718043","display_name":"Nikos Christidis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5661-711X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5661-711X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nikos Christidis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037466321","display_name":"Gillian Kay","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8436-0964","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8436-0964"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gillian Kay","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026825231","display_name":"Nick Dunstone","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nick Dunstone","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035420493","display_name":"David R. Fereday","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7079-3259","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7079-3259"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David Fereday","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035965702","display_name":"James O. Pope","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8945-4209","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8945-4209"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1293035123","display_name":"Met Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01ch2yn61","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"James O. Pope","raw_affiliation_strings":["Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5043361929"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1293035123","https://openalex.org/I36234482"],"apc_list":{"value":3910,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3910},"apc_paid":{"value":3910,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3910},"fwci":0.6268,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.58916068,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"150","issue":"758","first_page":"232","last_page":"261"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9491999745368958,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9491999745368958,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11186","display_name":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","score":0.04919999837875366,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10439","display_name":"Climate change impacts on agriculture","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/1976-drought","display_name":"1976 drought","score":0.8629999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heat-waves","display_name":"heat waves","score":0.6230000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/compound-extreme-events","display_name":"compound extreme events","score":0.8379999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/precipitation-deficit","display_name":"precipitation deficit","score":0.5329999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-attribution","display_name":"climate change attribution","score":0.49900001287460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rcp8-5-projections","display_name":"RCP8.5 projections","score":0.8299999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decadal-hindcast","display_name":"decadal hindcast","score":0.8330000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bias-correction","display_name":"bias correction","score":0.6660000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sea-surface-temperature","display_name":"sea surface temperature","score":0.5669999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/atmospheric-circulation","display_name":"atmospheric circulation","score":0.8640000224113464}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.7465533018112183},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.6350204348564148},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776436953","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5163215","display_name":"Consistency (knowledge bases)","level":2,"score":0.5855013728141785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.4892086982727051},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.47421813011169434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141452985","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q650994","display_name":"General Circulation Model","level":3,"score":0.4599892199039459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.451917439699173},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.43302568793296814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.3773300051689148},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.2518933117389679},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.19141459465026855},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.09556269645690918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.07885023951530457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/qj.4594","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S70522100","display_name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","issn_l":"0035-9009","issn":["0035-9009","1477-870X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/qj.4594","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4594","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S70522100","display_name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","issn_l":"0035-9009","issn":["0035-9009","1477-870X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":1.0,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":49,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1505951597","https://openalex.org/W1529285559","https://openalex.org/W1835770454","https://openalex.org/W1993058383","https://openalex.org/W1995548075","https://openalex.org/W2006165291","https://openalex.org/W2012752591","https://openalex.org/W2060597638","https://openalex.org/W2082188557","https://openalex.org/W2120373626","https://openalex.org/W2143267271","https://openalex.org/W2160836964","https://openalex.org/W2166201482","https://openalex.org/W2193503481","https://openalex.org/W2229929537","https://openalex.org/W2410390527","https://openalex.org/W2536941549","https://openalex.org/W2576303243","https://openalex.org/W2734802511","https://openalex.org/W2765441011","https://openalex.org/W2780318220","https://openalex.org/W2786193375","https://openalex.org/W2787461701","https://openalex.org/W2790546927","https://openalex.org/W2796313361","https://openalex.org/W2799736425","https://openalex.org/W2808995432","https://openalex.org/W2811161607","https://openalex.org/W2898046454","https://openalex.org/W2899835277","https://openalex.org/W2971985116","https://openalex.org/W2981564774","https://openalex.org/W3000683826","https://openalex.org/W3007038982","https://openalex.org/W3035102085","https://openalex.org/W3039171595","https://openalex.org/W3041339478","https://openalex.org/W3046360638","https://openalex.org/W3081868749","https://openalex.org/W3119264929","https://openalex.org/W3123675152","https://openalex.org/W3133790107","https://openalex.org/W3202117183","https://openalex.org/W4285010787","https://openalex.org/W4285987371","https://openalex.org/W4285999675","https://openalex.org/W4307575316","https://openalex.org/W4323533824","https://openalex.org/W4387299559"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3202117183","https://openalex.org/W4322010284","https://openalex.org/W4388913709","https://openalex.org/W7135412150","https://openalex.org/W4321501040","https://openalex.org/W4322007385","https://openalex.org/W4321493675","https://openalex.org/W4220658468","https://openalex.org/W4408486902","https://openalex.org/W3136488881"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"1976":[1,80,108,119,276,300],"was":[2,109],"one":[3],"of":[4,18,33,36,52,61,88,126,130,171,189,199,238,252,281],"the":[5,10,15,34,45,55,86,91,133,139,174,183,241,258,278,302],"most":[6],"acute":[7],"droughts":[8,298],"in":[9,54,132,160,173,214,232,301],"UK,":[11],"exceptional":[12],"due":[13],"to":[14,72,106,122,128,196,221,268],"compounding":[16],"effects":[17],"low":[19],"rainfall":[20,104,207],"and":[21,43,64,75,155,206,235,262,277,283],"hot":[22],"summer":[23,81,280],"temperatures.":[24],"In":[25,211],"this":[26],"study,":[27],"we":[28,148,291],"provide":[29],"a":[30,37,49,59,168],"multiperspective":[31],"view":[32],"likelihood":[35,215],"1976\u2010like":[38],"compound":[39,116,191],"event":[40],"occurring":[41,172],"now":[42],"into":[44,138],"future.":[46,140,303],"We":[47],"find":[48],"high":[50],"level":[51],"consistency":[53],"messages":[56],"emerging":[57],"across":[58],"range":[60],"different":[62,236],"approaches":[63,218],"climate":[65,70],"modelling":[66],"tools,":[67],"from":[68,182,224],"convection\u2010permitting":[69],"projections":[71],"decadal":[73],"hindcasts":[74],"global":[76],"coupled\u2010model":[77],"attribution":[78],"ensembles.":[79],"average":[82],"temperatures":[83,154],"remain,":[84],"at":[85],"time":[87],"writing,":[89],"amongst":[90],"highest":[92],"on":[93,124,257],"record,":[94],"but":[95,163],"with":[96,167,288],"warming":[97],"are":[98,120,177],"becoming":[99],"increasingly":[100],"common.":[101],"The":[102,141,187,249],"nine\u2010month":[103],"deficit":[105],"August":[107],"incredibly":[110],"rare.":[111],"Analysis":[112],"here":[113,285],"indicates":[114],"that":[115,158,287],"extremes":[117,208],"like":[118,299],"expected":[121,203],"occur":[123],"time\u2010scales":[125],"hundreds":[127],"thousands":[129],"years":[131],"present\u2010day":[134],"climate,":[135],"decreasing":[136],"slightly":[137],"probability":[142,242],"remains":[143],"very":[144,254],"small":[145],"even":[146],"if":[147,204],"account":[149],"for":[150,295],"favourable":[151],"sea":[152],"surface":[153],"atmospheric":[156,245],"circulation":[157],"occurred":[159,209],"1976.":[161],"Similar":[162],"less":[164],"severe":[165,297],"events":[166,192],"1%":[169],"chance":[170],"present":[175],"day":[176],"five":[178],"times":[179],"more":[180,296],"frequent":[181],"2040s":[184],"under":[185],"RCP8.5.":[186],"occurrence":[188],"such":[190],"is":[193,229],"significantly":[194],"(up":[195],"an":[197],"order":[198],"magnitude)":[200],"higher":[201],"than":[202],"temperature":[205],"independently.":[210],"general,":[212],"differences":[213,231],"estimates":[216],"between":[217,227,275],"can":[219,272],"begin":[220],"be":[222,273,293],"understood":[223],"how":[225],"dependence":[226],"variables":[228],"handled,":[230],"bias":[233],"correction,":[234],"levels":[237],"conditioning":[239,253],"(i.e.,":[240],"given":[243],"particular":[244],"or":[246],"ocean":[247],"states).":[248],"appropriate":[250],"choice":[251],"much":[255],"depends":[256],"question":[259],"being":[260],"asked":[261],"its":[263],"unconscious":[264],"use":[265],"may":[266],"lead":[267],"apparent":[269],"contradictions.":[270],"Parallels":[271],"drawn":[274],"recent":[279],"2022,":[282],"results":[284],"suggest":[286],"hotter":[289],"summers":[290],"should":[292],"prepared":[294]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2023-10-14T00:00:00"}
