{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4386908052","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2309.10613","title":"An overview of time series point and interval forecasting based on similarity of trajectories, with an experimental study on traffic flow forecasting","display_name":"An overview of time series point and interval forecasting based on similarity of trajectories, with an experimental study on traffic flow forecasting","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-09-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4386908052","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2309.10613"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2309.10613","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2309.10613","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.10613","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.10613","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5090982568","display_name":"\u0130lker Arslan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6413-9199","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6413-9199"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1301968116","display_name":"MEF University","ror":"https://ror.org/05jz51y94","country_code":"TR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1301968116"]}],"countries":["TR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Arslan, \u0130lker","raw_affiliation_strings":["MEF University [Istanbul] (Turkey)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"MEF University [Istanbul] (Turkey)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1301968116"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5092912372","display_name":"Can Hakan Da\u011f\u0131d\u0131r","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8352-8120","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8352-8120"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I99464096","display_name":"KU Leuven","ror":"https://ror.org/05f950310","country_code":"BE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I99464096"]}],"countries":["BE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Da\u011f\u0131d\u0131r, Can Hakan","raw_affiliation_strings":["KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Oude Markt 13 - bus 5005, 3000 Leuven - Belgium)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Oude Markt 13 - bus 5005, 3000 Leuven - Belgium)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I99464096"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035741821","display_name":"\u00dcmi\u0307t I\u015flak","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4281-5171","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4281-5171","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1708-1703"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405392","display_name":"Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i University","ror":"https://ror.org/03z9tma90","country_code":"TR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405392"]}],"countries":["TR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"I\u015flak, \u00dcmit","raw_affiliation_strings":["Bo\u01e7azi\u00e7i \u00fcniversitesi = Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i University [Istanbul] (34342 Bebek, Istanbul - Turkey)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Bo\u01e7azi\u00e7i \u00fcniversitesi = Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i University [Istanbul] (34342 Bebek, Istanbul - Turkey)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405392"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11344","display_name":"Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques","score":0.5512999892234802,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11344","display_name":"Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques","score":0.5512999892234802,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.4092000126838684,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.03480000048875809,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-forecasting","display_name":"time series forecasting","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trajectory-similarity","display_name":"trajectory similarity","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-intervals","display_name":"prediction intervals","score":0.7940000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/traffic-flow-prediction","display_name":"traffic flow prediction","score":0.9819999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hyperparameter-optimization","display_name":"hyperparameter optimization","score":0.7900000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outlier-handling","display_name":"outlier handling","score":0.9980000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/distance-metrics","display_name":"distance measures","score":0.968999981880188}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79337645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q779824","display_name":"Outlier","level":2,"score":0.6970189213752747},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103278499","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q254465","display_name":"Similarity (geometry)","level":3,"score":0.6363762617111206},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.5975120067596436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8642999","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4171168","display_name":"Hyperparameter","level":2,"score":0.5887824296951294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103402496","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1106171","display_name":"Prediction interval","level":2,"score":0.5715844631195068},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118671147","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q578714","display_name":"Quantile","level":2,"score":0.5651264786720276},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5545074343681335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.5251764059066772},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778067643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166507","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.5077446699142456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81917197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q628760","display_name":"Selection (genetic algorithm)","level":2,"score":0.5048952698707581},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.47418102622032166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63817138","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3455889","display_name":"Quantile regression","level":2,"score":0.46094071865081787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.4561116695404053},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93959086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888345","display_name":"Model selection","level":2,"score":0.4483180046081543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.42208027839660645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3856276869773865},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.38133543729782104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.358673095703125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2900821566581726},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2626083493232727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115961682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q860623","display_name":"Image (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114614502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q76592","display_name":"Combinatorics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2309.10613","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2309.10613","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.10613","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:hal-04670731v1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hal.science/hal-04670731v1/document","pdf_url":"https://hal.science/hal-04670731/document","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1294671590","host_organization_name":"Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"2024","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:gcris.mef.edu.tr:20.500.11779/3916","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/3916","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400448","display_name":"MEF University Institutional Repository (MEF University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1301968116","host_organization_name":"MEF University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1301968116"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Other"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2309.10613","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2309.10613","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2309.10613","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2309.10613","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2309.10613","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.10613","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/11","display_name":"Sustainable cities and communities","score":0.5142999887466431}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","display_name":"Life on land","score":0.6100000143051147}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4386908052.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4386908052.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2140186469","https://openalex.org/W4390421286","https://openalex.org/W4280563792","https://openalex.org/W3135881084","https://openalex.org/W2380590035","https://openalex.org/W4389724018","https://openalex.org/W4318719684","https://openalex.org/W2351712633","https://openalex.org/W3202146269","https://openalex.org/W3148839670"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,40],"purpose":[1],"of":[2,10,19,50,139],"this":[3],"paper":[4],"is":[5,66,95],"to":[6,68,97],"give":[7],"an":[8,63],"overview":[9],"the":[11,48,55,70,89,92,101,106,113,117,127,129,136,143],"time":[12,137],"series":[13,138],"forecasting":[14,93],"problem":[15],"based":[16],"on":[17,30],"similarity":[18],"trajectories.":[20],"Various":[21],"methodologies":[22],"are":[23,38,110,133],"introduced":[24],"and":[25,27,35,53,85,100,123,131],"studied,":[26],"detailed":[28],"discussions":[29],"hyperparameter":[31],"optimization,":[32],"outlier":[33],"handling":[34],"distance":[36],"measures":[37],"provided.":[39],"suggested":[41],"new":[42],"approaches":[43],"involve":[44],"variations":[45],"in":[46],"both":[47],"selection":[49],"similar":[51,74,107],"trajectories":[52,75,108],"assembling":[54],"candidate":[56],"forecasts.":[57],"After":[58],"forming":[59],"a":[60],"general":[61],"framework,":[62],"experimental":[64],"study":[65],"conducted":[67,134],"compare":[69],"methods":[71],"that":[72],"use":[73],"along":[76],"with":[77,112],"some":[78],"other":[79],"standard":[80],"models":[81,115],"(such":[82],"as":[83,120],"ARIMA":[84],"Random":[86],"Forest)":[87],"from":[88,105,116,142],"literature.":[90],"Lastly,":[91],"setting":[94],"extended":[96],"interval":[98],"forecasts,":[99],"prediction":[102],"intervals":[103],"resulting":[104],"approach":[109],"compared":[111],"existing":[114],"literature,":[118],"such":[119],"historical":[121],"simulation":[122],"quantile":[124],"regression.":[125],"Throughout":[126],"paper,":[128],"experimentations":[130],"comparisons":[132],"via":[135],"traffic":[140],"flow":[141],"California":[144],"PEMS":[145],"dataset.":[146]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-01T08:54:57.152042","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}