{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4385617684","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","title":"Expect the unexpected: Did the equity markets anticipate the Russo-Ukrainian war?","display_name":"Expect the unexpected: Did the equity markets anticipate the Russo-Ukrainian war?","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-08-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4385617684","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S88577320","display_name":"Finance research letters","issn_l":"1544-6123","issn":["1544-6123","1544-6131"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Finance Research Letters","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5092603191","display_name":"Marcell P\u00e9ter Gran\u00e1t","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4036-1500","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4036-1500"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I106118109","display_name":"E\u00f6tv\u00f6s Lor\u00e1nd University","ror":"https://ror.org/01jsq2704","country_code":"HU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I106118109"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210142209","display_name":"John von Neumann University","ror":"https://ror.org/03n9qzd79","country_code":"HU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"]}],"countries":["HU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marcell P. Gran\u00e1t","raw_affiliation_strings":["E\u00f6tv\u00f6s Lor\u00e1nd University","MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Hungary"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4036-1500","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"E\u00f6tv\u00f6s Lor\u00e1nd University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I106118109"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Hungary","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050066216","display_name":"Krist\u00f3f Lehmann","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2173-5527","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2173-5527"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210142209","display_name":"John von Neumann University","ror":"https://ror.org/03n9qzd79","country_code":"HU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"]}],"countries":["HU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Krist\u00f3f Lehmann","raw_affiliation_strings":["MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Hungary"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Hungary","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102801585","display_name":"Oliv\u00e9r Nagy","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7404-8568","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7404-8568"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I106118109","display_name":"E\u00f6tv\u00f6s Lor\u00e1nd University","ror":"https://ror.org/01jsq2704","country_code":"HU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I106118109"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210142209","display_name":"John von Neumann University","ror":"https://ror.org/03n9qzd79","country_code":"HU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"]}],"countries":["HU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Oliv\u00e9r Nagy","raw_affiliation_strings":["E\u00f6tv\u00f6s Lor\u00e1nd University","MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Hungary"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"E\u00f6tv\u00f6s Lor\u00e1nd University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I106118109"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Hungary","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5010524876","display_name":"G\u00e1bor Neszveda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6499-7191","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6499-7191"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210142209","display_name":"John von Neumann University","ror":"https://ror.org/03n9qzd79","country_code":"HU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"]}],"countries":["HU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"G\u00e1bor Neszveda","raw_affiliation_strings":["MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Hungary"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"MNB Institute, John von Neumann University, Hungary","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5010524876"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210142209"],"apc_list":{"value":2930,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2930},"apc_paid":{"value":2930,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2930},"fwci":3.75,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":21,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93825803,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"58","issue":null,"first_page":"104301","last_page":"104301"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.8964999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.8964999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.09480000287294388,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.002300000051036477,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/russia-ukraine-war","display_name":"Russian invasion of Ukraine","score":0.9900000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/market-anticipation","display_name":"market anticipation","score":0.4090000092983246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/information-incorporation","display_name":"information incorporation","score":0.7059999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stock-market","display_name":"stock market","score":0.6819999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/informed-trading","display_name":"informed trading","score":0.5809999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stock-returns","display_name":"stock returns","score":0.43700000643730164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geopolitical-risk","display_name":"geopolitical risk","score":0.35499998927116394}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199728807","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2578557","display_name":"Equity (law)","level":2,"score":0.769096851348877},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21931767","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8798","display_name":"Ukrainian","level":2,"score":0.6028461456298828},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.5732508301734924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5660754442214966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204036174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q909380","display_name":"Stock (firearms)","level":2,"score":0.5217662453651428},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12958728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1002530","display_name":"Event study","level":3,"score":0.47973576188087463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780299701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q475000","display_name":"Stock market","level":3,"score":0.4485335946083069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.36882922053337097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.33113497495651245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.2022603154182434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.10209670662879944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.0710887610912323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S88577320","display_name":"Finance research letters","issn_l":"1544-6123","issn":["1544-6123","1544-6131"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Finance Research Letters","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323006736","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323006736","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S88577320","display_name":"Finance research letters","issn_l":"1544-6123","issn":["1544-6123","1544-6131"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Finance Research Letters","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":23,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1536256589","https://openalex.org/W1583310468","https://openalex.org/W1995834279","https://openalex.org/W2050031929","https://openalex.org/W2094517242","https://openalex.org/W2104795328","https://openalex.org/W2125520394","https://openalex.org/W2148501415","https://openalex.org/W2537172349","https://openalex.org/W4221040930","https://openalex.org/W4224269961","https://openalex.org/W4280550922","https://openalex.org/W4280607724","https://openalex.org/W4281296276","https://openalex.org/W4286447991","https://openalex.org/W4286566118","https://openalex.org/W4295664472","https://openalex.org/W4297760334","https://openalex.org/W4308039003","https://openalex.org/W4320084928","https://openalex.org/W4366777113","https://openalex.org/W4391092588","https://openalex.org/W4403469336"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4312995752","https://openalex.org/W7125694616","https://openalex.org/W4323042573","https://openalex.org/W4226093417","https://openalex.org/W4320924570","https://openalex.org/W4384343644","https://openalex.org/W4323567380","https://openalex.org/W4311124723","https://openalex.org/W3170625000","https://openalex.org/W7026439406"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0],"2022,":[1],"Russian":[2],"military":[3],"operations":[4],"began":[5,22],"in":[6,26],"Ukraine,":[7],"which":[8],"surprised":[9],"some,":[10],"while":[11],"others":[12],"might":[13],"have":[14],"expected":[15],"it.":[16],"We":[17,61],"investigate":[18],"whether":[19],"the":[20,27,31,35,42,64,70,77,83,88],"expectations":[21],"to":[23,68],"be":[24],"priced":[25],"equity":[28,65],"markets":[29,66],"before":[30,76],"operations.":[32],"To":[33],"estimate":[34],"start":[36],"of":[37,45,82],"information":[38,84],"incorporation,":[39],"we":[40],"use":[41],"adjusted":[43],"returns":[44],"62":[46],"country-level":[47],"stock":[48],"market":[49],"data":[50],"assuming":[51],"informed":[52],"traders":[53],"using":[54],"a":[55],"non-linear":[56],"model":[57],"and":[58,79],"rolling-window":[59],"regressions.":[60],"find":[62],"that":[63],"started":[67],"price":[69],"conflict":[71],"at":[72],"least":[73],"50":[74],"days":[75],"invasion,":[78],"approximately":[80],"one-third":[81],"was":[85],"incorporated":[86],"on":[87],"event":[89],"day.":[90]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2023-08-07T00:00:00"}