{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4378907697","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","title":"Comparison of Three Time Series Forecasting Methods on Linear Regression, Exponential Smoothing and Weighted Moving Average","display_name":"Comparison of Three Time Series Forecasting Methods on Linear Regression, Exponential Smoothing and Weighted Moving Average","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-03-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4378907697","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","pdf_url":"http://ijiis.org/index.php/IJIIS/article/download/165/119","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210214001","display_name":"IJIIS International Journal of Informatics and Information Systems","issn_l":"2579-7069","issn":["2579-7069"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IJIIS: International Journal of Informatics and Information Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"http://ijiis.org/index.php/IJIIS/article/download/165/119","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5043032169","display_name":"Ajiono Ajiono","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405260847","display_name":"Universitas Amikom Purwokerto","ror":"https://ror.org/04c9wp534","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405260847"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ajiono Ajiono","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Information System, Universitas Amikom Purwokerto, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Information System, Universitas Amikom Purwokerto, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405260847"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5043032169"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405260847"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":6.5086,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":44,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97314078,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":98,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"6","issue":"2","first_page":"89","last_page":"102"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13373","display_name":"Data Mining and Machine Learning Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-forecasting","display_name":"time series forecasting","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/linear-regression-prediction","display_name":"linear regression forecasting","score":0.9079999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exponential-smoothing","display_name":"exponential smoothing","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weighted-moving-average","display_name":"weighted moving average","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecasting-accuracy-comparison","display_name":"forecast accuracy comparison","score":0.7160000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-absolute-deviation","display_name":"mean absolute deviation","score":0.8289999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-squared-error","display_name":"mean squared error","score":0.9789999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-absolute-percentage-error","display_name":"mean absolute percentage error","score":0.9599999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tracking-signal","display_name":"tracking signal","score":0.9860000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trend-analysis","display_name":"trend analysis","score":0.40400001406669617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/student-enrollment-forecasting","display_name":"student enrollment forecasting","score":0.8479999899864197}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133710760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775837","display_name":"Exponential smoothing","level":2,"score":0.7710700035095215},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48921125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10861030","display_name":"Linear regression","level":2,"score":0.6611603498458862},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.6442393064498901},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175706884","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130194","display_name":"Moving average","level":2,"score":0.6366849541664124},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.6158521175384521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22679943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159375","display_name":"Standard deviation","level":2,"score":0.5927411913871765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3770464","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775963","display_name":"Smoothing","level":2,"score":0.5549328923225403},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776291640","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912517","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5292325019836426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.526528000831604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.46425846219062805},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152877465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208042","display_name":"Regression analysis","level":2,"score":0.4289887249469757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151376022","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q168698","display_name":"Exponential function","level":2,"score":0.41351622343063354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.08582985401153564},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","pdf_url":"http://ijiis.org/index.php/IJIIS/article/download/165/119","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210214001","display_name":"IJIIS International Journal of Informatics and Information Systems","issn_l":"2579-7069","issn":["2579-7069"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IJIIS: International Journal of Informatics and Information Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.47738/ijiis.v6i2.165","pdf_url":"http://ijiis.org/index.php/IJIIS/article/download/165/119","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210214001","display_name":"IJIIS International Journal of Informatics and Information Systems","issn_l":"2579-7069","issn":["2579-7069"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IJIIS: International Journal of Informatics and Information Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4378907697.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4378907697.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":19,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2610314771","https://openalex.org/W2752889686","https://openalex.org/W2887123801","https://openalex.org/W2920744558","https://openalex.org/W2954146975","https://openalex.org/W2956528165","https://openalex.org/W2983984913","https://openalex.org/W2984090820","https://openalex.org/W3108143921","https://openalex.org/W3146265088","https://openalex.org/W3171795592","https://openalex.org/W4207011212","https://openalex.org/W4280534663","https://openalex.org/W4293094558","https://openalex.org/W4311940020","https://openalex.org/W4311940129","https://openalex.org/W4312238995","https://openalex.org/W4312635734","https://openalex.org/W4320070635"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7132866523","https://openalex.org/W2991714262","https://openalex.org/W4312379118","https://openalex.org/W4406746379","https://openalex.org/W3123361224","https://openalex.org/W4409857979","https://openalex.org/W4386963139","https://openalex.org/W2023729971","https://openalex.org/W3031436228","https://openalex.org/W2523403277"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,64,96,159],"purpose":[1],"of":[2,33,50,80,113,161,163,213],"this":[3,34,105,117,121,124],"study":[4],"is":[5,75,94,107,148,174],"to":[6,28],"compare":[7],"the":[8,22,31,36,43,53,73,77,81,92,109,140,164,167,181,187],"3":[9],"forecasting":[10,146],"methods":[11],"Linear":[12,37,141],"Regression,":[13],"Exponential":[14],"Smoothing":[15],"and":[16,71,88,103,115,131,150,166,186],"Weighted":[17],"Moving":[18,97],"Average":[19],"based":[20],"on":[21],"smallest":[23,54],"error":[24,55,165],"value":[25,49,56,67,99,106,168],"or":[26,215],"close":[27],"zero.":[29],"From":[30],"results":[32],"study,":[35],"Regression":[38,142],"method":[39,45,93,125,143,147],"was":[40,57],"obtained":[41],"as":[42,135,144,152],"correct":[44],"with":[46],"a":[47,145,153,175,206,210],"predicted":[48],"502":[51],"students,":[52],"MAD":[58],"27.83,":[59],"MSE":[60],"1152.1":[61],"MAPE":[62],"8.1%.":[63],"Tracking":[65],"Signal":[66],"moves":[68,100],"between":[69,101,180],"1":[70],"-1,":[72],"movement":[74,199],"within":[76,108],"control":[78,111,170],"limits":[79,112],"tracking":[82],"signal":[83],"standard":[84],"deviation":[85],"distribution":[86],"4":[87],"-4,":[89],"meaning":[90,201],"that":[91,120,123,139,172,202],"correct.":[95],"Range":[98],"68":[102],"-46,":[104],"MR":[110],"117.83":[114],"-117.83,":[116],"result":[118],"shows":[119,171],"means":[122],"has":[126],"been":[127],"tested":[128],"for":[129,155,216],"truth":[130],"can":[132],"be":[133],"accepted":[134],"well.":[136],"Thus,":[137],"indicating":[138],"appropriate":[149],"acceptable":[151],"basis":[154],"future":[156],"decision":[157],"making.":[158],"level":[160],"accuracy":[162],"in":[169],"there":[173],"time":[176,214],"series":[177],"data":[178,198,203],"relationship":[179],"x":[182],"variable,":[183],"namely":[184,190],"time,":[185],"variable":[188],"y,":[189],"actual":[191],"data.":[192],"In":[193],"addition,":[194],"it":[195],"produces":[196],"trending":[197],"patterns,":[200],"movements":[204],"experience":[205],"significant":[207],"increase":[208],"over":[209],"long":[211],"period":[212],"7":[217],"periods.":[218]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":12}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2023-06-01T00:00:00"}
