{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4367598596","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1214/22-aoas1654","title":"Estimating the effects of a California gun control program with multitask Gaussian processes","display_name":"Estimating the effects of a California gun control program with multitask Gaussian processes","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-05-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4367598596","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1214/22-aoas1654"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1214/22-aoas1654","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1214/22-aoas1654","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1214/22-aoas1654","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112778392","display_name":"The Annals of Applied Statistics","issn_l":"1932-6157","issn":["1932-6157","1941-7330"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","doyens","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319881","host_organization_name":"Institute of Mathematical Statistics","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319881"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Mathematical Statistics"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Annals of Applied Statistics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.07006","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041268061","display_name":"Eli Ben\u2010Michael","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1175-4129","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1175-4129"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74973139","display_name":"Carnegie Mellon University","ror":"https://ror.org/05x2bcf33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eli Ben-Michael","raw_affiliation_strings":["Heinz College and Department of Statistics & Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Heinz College and Department of Statistics & Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063845534","display_name":"David T. Arbour","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9932-7657","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9932-7657"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1306409833","display_name":"Adobe Systems (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/059tvcg64","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1306409833"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David Arbour","raw_affiliation_strings":["Adobe Research"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Adobe Research","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1306409833"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017768355","display_name":"Avi Feller","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7319-5468","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7319-5468"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I95457486","display_name":"University of California, Berkeley","ror":"https://ror.org/01an7q238","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Avi Feller","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley","Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011032570","display_name":"Alexander M. Franks","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9329-206X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9329-206X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154570441","display_name":"University of California, Santa Barbara","ror":"https://ror.org/02t274463","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alexander Franks","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California, Santa Barbara"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California, Santa Barbara","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021713470","display_name":"Steven P. Raphael","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9243-2182","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9243-2182"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I95457486","display_name":"University of California, Berkeley","ror":"https://ror.org/01an7q238","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Steven Raphael","raw_affiliation_strings":["Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.3523,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":16,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94742599,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"17","issue":"2","first_page":"985","last_page":"1016"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12265","display_name":"Gun Ownership and Violence Research","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3306","display_name":"Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12265","display_name":"Gun Ownership and Violence Research","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3306","display_name":"Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12814","display_name":"Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference","score":0.0008999999845400453,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gun-control","display_name":"gun control","score":0.7940000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gun-violence","display_name":"gun violence","score":0.7440000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/homicide-rates","display_name":"homicide rates","score":0.7889999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/policy-evaluation","display_name":"policy evaluation","score":0.5830000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-per-life-saved","display_name":"cost per life saved","score":0.574999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/value-of-a-statistical-life","display_name":"value of a statistical life","score":0.753000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/california","display_name":"California","score":0.49799999594688416}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780262971","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44554","display_name":"Law enforcement","level":2,"score":0.6183436512947083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5202913880348206},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.47160324454307556},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.46086347103118896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.4572739899158478},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C525541732","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q149086","display_name":"Homicide","level":4,"score":0.45307326316833496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3017944768","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1450463","display_name":"Poison control","level":2,"score":0.42218658328056335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.35954487323760986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C190385971","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q373494","display_name":"Injury prevention","level":3,"score":0.25865650177001953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2055962085723877},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.18320569396018982},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.1785648763179779},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.16256392002105713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.14991647005081177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.09669908881187439},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126838900","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q77604","display_name":"Radiology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1214/22-aoas1654","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1214/22-aoas1654","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1214/22-aoas1654","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112778392","display_name":"The Annals of Applied Statistics","issn_l":"1932-6157","issn":["1932-6157","1941-7330"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","doyens","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319881","host_organization_name":"Institute of Mathematical Statistics","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319881"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Mathematical Statistics"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Annals of Applied Statistics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2110.07006","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2110.07006","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.07006","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2110.07006","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2110.07006","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2110.07006","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2110.07006","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2110.07006","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.07006","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8046000003814697,"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"},{"score":0.4043000042438507,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6219198695","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"R305D200010","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306106","funder_display_name":"U.S. Department of Education"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8849755744","display_name":"Improving Methods for Policy Impact Evaluation with Group Panel Data in Education Research","funder_award_id":"R305D200010","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332210","funder_display_name":"Institute of Education Sciences"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306106","display_name":"U.S. Department of Education","ror":"https://ror.org/021adze67"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332210","display_name":"Institute of Education Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/04et59085"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4367598596.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4367598596.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":69,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W981354683","https://openalex.org/W1502922572","https://openalex.org/W1533660737","https://openalex.org/W1547987535","https://openalex.org/W1665378886","https://openalex.org/W1915162985","https://openalex.org/W1917966882","https://openalex.org/W1947935703","https://openalex.org/W1964011266","https://openalex.org/W2039811614","https://openalex.org/W2041711816","https://openalex.org/W2064790857","https://openalex.org/W2076442795","https://openalex.org/W2078639378","https://openalex.org/W2093356427","https://openalex.org/W2119595900","https://openalex.org/W2170775246","https://openalex.org/W2263423262","https://openalex.org/W2274910931","https://openalex.org/W2396045092","https://openalex.org/W2498997299","https://openalex.org/W2512131922","https://openalex.org/W2530932747","https://openalex.org/W2540009304","https://openalex.org/W2623349911","https://openalex.org/W2765841878","https://openalex.org/W2766301804","https://openalex.org/W2766644023","https://openalex.org/W2774753998","https://openalex.org/W2781942582","https://openalex.org/W2795788092","https://openalex.org/W2886621373","https://openalex.org/W2890946734","https://openalex.org/W2896401715","https://openalex.org/W2952814763","https://openalex.org/W2963989473","https://openalex.org/W2964115178","https://openalex.org/W2969436662","https://openalex.org/W2970414511","https://openalex.org/W2974597310","https://openalex.org/W2979978582","https://openalex.org/W2990200281","https://openalex.org/W3008721707","https://openalex.org/W3016390079","https://openalex.org/W3022683461","https://openalex.org/W3034977651","https://openalex.org/W3035545661","https://openalex.org/W3035924539","https://openalex.org/W3042102985","https://openalex.org/W3071125679","https://openalex.org/W3098174737","https://openalex.org/W3121705696","https://openalex.org/W3123564515","https://openalex.org/W3125057276","https://openalex.org/W3125626355","https://openalex.org/W3133139342","https://openalex.org/W3157752112","https://openalex.org/W3157949100","https://openalex.org/W3178106459","https://openalex.org/W3181158838","https://openalex.org/W4211049957","https://openalex.org/W4211107114","https://openalex.org/W4224286732","https://openalex.org/W4224310643","https://openalex.org/W4230897592","https://openalex.org/W4234961057","https://openalex.org/W4235075317","https://openalex.org/W6885030094","https://openalex.org/W6910167631"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3205622835","https://openalex.org/W3210250673","https://openalex.org/W4403062394","https://openalex.org/W4413756440","https://openalex.org/W3116587012","https://openalex.org/W3035215139","https://openalex.org/W2006574993","https://openalex.org/W2130777751","https://openalex.org/W2472758613","https://openalex.org/W4317395578"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Gun":[0],"violence":[1,31],"is":[2,61,217],"a":[3,16,96,175,178,247,251],"critical":[4],"public":[5],"safety":[6],"concern":[7],"in":[8,32,161,207,222],"the":[9,21,33,64,78,81,86,89,105,195,201,213,244],"United":[10],"States.":[11],"In":[12],"2006,":[13],"California":[14,69],"implemented":[15],"unique":[17],"firearm":[18,41],"monitoring":[19,197],"program,":[20],"Armed":[22],"and":[23,84,113,123,133,153,186,198],"Prohibited":[24],"Persons":[25],"System":[26],"(APPS),":[27],"to":[28,50,62,104,147],"address":[29],"gun":[30],"state.":[34],"The":[35],"APPS":[36,67,202],"program":[37,203],"first":[38],"identifies":[39],"those":[40],"owners":[42],"who":[43],"become":[44],"prohibited":[45],"from":[46,200],"owning":[47],"one,":[48],"due":[49],"federal":[51],"or":[52],"state":[53],"law,":[54],"then":[55],"confiscates":[56],"their":[57],"firearms.":[58],"Our":[59],"goal":[60],"assess":[63],"effect":[65,214,228],"of":[66,88,243,246],"on":[68,215,229],"murder":[70,216,224,235],"rates":[71],"using":[72],"annual,":[73],"state-level":[74],"crime":[75],"data":[76,107,116],"across":[77,131,135],"U.S.":[79],"for":[80,111,125,256],"years":[82],"before":[83],"after":[85],"introduction":[87],"program.":[90],"To":[91],"do":[92],"so,":[93],"we":[94,192],"adapt":[95],"nonparametric":[97],"Bayesian":[98],"approach,":[99,191],"multitask":[100],"Gaussian":[101],"processes":[102],"(MTGPs),":[103],"panel":[106,115],"setting.":[108],"MTGPs":[109],"allow":[110,124],"flexible":[112],"parsimonious":[114],"models":[117],"that":[118,167,194,212],"nest":[119],"many":[120],"existing":[121],"approaches":[122],"direct":[126],"control":[127],"over":[128,184],"both":[129],"dependence":[130,134],"time":[132,187],"units":[136,185],"as":[137,139,177],"well":[138],"natural":[140],"uncertainty":[141],"quantification.":[142],"We":[143,164,209],"extend":[144],"this":[145,168,190,257],"approach":[146,169],"incorporate":[148],"non-Normal":[149],"outcomes,":[150],"auxiliary":[151],"covariates,":[152],"multiple":[154],"outcome":[155],"series,":[156],"which":[157],"are":[158,237],"all":[159],"important":[160],"our":[162],"application.":[163],"also":[165,210],"show":[166],"has":[170],"attractive":[171],"Frequentist":[172],"properties,":[173],"including":[174],"representation":[176],"weighting":[179],"estimator":[180],"with":[181,225],"separate":[182],"weights":[183],"periods.":[188],"Applying":[189],"find":[193,211],"increased":[196],"enforcement":[199,258],"substantially":[204,238],"decreased":[205],"homicides":[206],"California.":[208],"driven":[218],"entirely":[219],"by":[220],"declines":[221],"gun-related":[223],"no":[226],"measurable":[227],"non-gun":[230],"murder.":[231],"Estimated":[232],"cost":[233],"per":[234],"avoided":[236],"lower":[239],"than":[240],"conventional":[241],"estimates":[242],"value":[245],"statistical":[248],"life,":[249],"suggesting":[250],"very":[252],"high":[253],"benefit-cost":[254],"ratio":[255],"effort.":[259]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2023-05-02T00:00:00"}
